Keys to the Game: Colorado State

Alright, I'm back with my keys to the game. Cal has a number of things to address coming off a bye week and a disappointing upset loss to Maryland. Let's see what the areas of focus will need to be tomorrow.

Confuse Farris.

Senior first year starting QB Billy Farris is heating up at the right time. Farris is coming off of an excellent game against Houston in which he completed 73% of his passes for 276 yards, 2 TDs and no INTs, and is currently second in the Mountain West Conference behind pass heavy-BYU in passing yards per game.

The Rams like the long passes. I mean they practice it all the time. Who can forget this?



This probably won’t be a dink and dunk passing game. Many of CSU’s receiver routes take a while to develop, but can be deadly once they’ve had the time. The added time Farris will need in the pocket for his receivers to beat Cal defenders will give Cal an opportunity to get to him. While CSU Head Coach Steve Fairchild has experience with 3-4 defenses from his experience coaching in the AFC East, Farris doesn’t. It will be important for the Cal defense to give Farris different looks and send pressure from different packages and directions.

More than half of Cal’s sacks (7) this year have come from linebackers, and even a CB blitz. Also, considering Cal’s issues at safety, Cal has to prevent Farris from finding a Rams WR on an island all alone. There’s no better way than confusing Farris by getting to him in different ways.

Also, for the record, I’m not dismissing the importance of stopping CSU’s rushing game, as they do show a pretty balanced offensive attack. However, I’m strangely feeling a bit more confident that Cal will step up to contain the Rams’ run game. Senior running backs Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell are both big physical backs (both topping out over 6 feet and 225 pounds) who can put some hurting on some defenders, but neither appear to be the threats that Javon Ringer or Da’Rel Scott were for us. If the Cal defense shows up to play, I don’t expect Johnson or Bell's combined yardage to top out over the century mark.


Big Plays
Colorado State doesn’t give up big plays. The Rams have only allowed one play to go more than 40 yards all season.

Cal on the other hand, seemingly only shoots out big plays as opposed to consistently sustained long drives. Consider this: Cal has had 20 plays of more than 20 yards so far this year.

While I would see some good old fashioned chain movement, Cal will need some big explosive runs/passes/kickoff returns/interception returns. When one considers their victory over CSU last year, what really decided the game in an overall sluggish performance for the Bears last year (other CSU’s back breaking tendency to turn the ball over), were the 14 points that Jackson and Best put up in long runs of 73 and 64 yards, respectively.

Don't remember? Here are some quick reminders.





No other player better illustrates this point that Jahvid Best. Best is a bit of an all-or-nothing kind of back. What makes Best so special is his explosive ability to rip off long runs once he hits the open space. Take that away however, and Best puts up marginal numbers. Think about this—in Best’s performance against WSU this past year, Best put up a whopping 200 yards on only 14 carries. 166 of those yards however, came on 2 ridiculously long runs (80 and 86 yards). The remaining 34 yards came on 2 carries, resulting in an unimpressive 2.8 YPC. Maryland bottled up Best from ripping off any long runs, holding him to 25 yards on 10 carries. Michigan State was the only real exception in which Best did more of a pound it into contact for 3 to 4 yards at a time kind of rushing performance.

I’m not saying this to downplay Best’s ability as a runner. Rather, it’s to highlight his strengths, the ones that Cal will need to ensure they see a good level of success against the Rams on Saturday. My guess is that CSU will key in on Best though, forcing Cal to create those big plays in the air. And considering CSU features a conference worst pass D, this just might be the right bet.

With that said, I would still like to see some nice long complete drives. Not necessarily Washington State 2007 long, but enough to instill a sense of confidence that the team will be ready to consistently move the ball in crucial situations as we continue with the season.

Kickoff Coverage
It was either this or Cal’s red zone efficiency, which was terrible for most of the Maryland game. But this could be the final factor to really hurt the Bears.

Cal has struggled in kickoff return coverage all year. It all starts with the Cal’s inability to boot the ball into the opponent’s end zone. Or inside the 10 yard line for that matter.

I briefly touched upon this yesterday in my look at the Rams yesterday, but given that CSU averages nearly 30 yards per return this year, it doesn’t take a Nobel Prize Laureate to predict the Rams offense constantly starting near midfield. A first down or two, and they might already be knocking.

The Cal coaching staff has addressed this heavily in the past few weeks, but the amount of improvement remains to be seen. Again, it all starts with where the return man begins with the ball, but Cal will have to be disciplined in their coverage lanes to prevent from CSU from ripping off any huge, or at worst, average runs.

In closing

Alright, that about wraps it up. Since I’ll be at the game tomorrow, don’t expect any live blog notes. BearsNecessity usually does a pretty good job with that on gamedays anyway, and the homies at California Golden Blogs typically have a live thread available as well.

Here’s hoping for a win, and a big one at that. Cal needs to build some confidence entering conference play, given that the conference race has been busted wide open after what happened yesterday. Prediction? Ahh…38-17. Yeah.

Go Bears!