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I'm back! Hope you all enjoyed your holidays with your loved ones, because it's time to throw out all decency and get into full on rage mode as your California Golden Bears face the Texas Longhorns.
Both team feature a similar 7-5 record, both the trajectory of their respective seasons are markedly different.
After dropping three straight games against Washington, Oregon and USC, the Bears won four of their final six games, including a 3-1 closing stretch that included a 3 point loss against 4th ranked Stanford.
Texas on the other hand, was ranked as high as 11th in the AP Polls and sported a nice 6-2 record before dropping 3 of their last 4 games.
However, don't believe the hype that the Longhorns are reeling into some downward spiral while the Bears have answered all questions that they've turned the corner. Both teams are young and have gone through their share of growing pains, and have done what young teams will do: beat mediocre to bad teams and lose to good ones.
Four of Texas' five losses have been against ranked teams, and their most impressive game was a comeback road win against a reeling Texas A&M squad.
In the other corner, three of Cal's five losses have been against ranked teams, while their most impressive win was either against a 7-5 Utah squad without their starting QB or a road win against a reeling ASU team.
The key difference between the two teams' seasons is that the Bears had a front loaded conference schedule, while the Longhorns had a tougher schedule down the stretch.
Other than that, one shouldn't be fooled into thinking the teams have had all that different seasons.
I feel like Bowl games are some of the hardest games to predict because of the long layoff in between games and it's often hard to get a sense of a team's motivation before each game. I do get the sense however, that the Bears are healthy and ready to play. But the game will come down to a few key areas.
Get the Running Game Going
At first glance, one might think that the Bears need to come out slinging the ball.
The Longhorns have one of the best rush defenses in the nation, ranked 11th and allowing just 103.67 yards per game.
Through the air though, Texas is ranked 46th in the nation, giving up 211.7 yards per game. A respectable, but less intimidating set of numbers.
It's going to be tough sledding running against Texas' front seven, especially with Big-12 lineman of the year Sam Acho leading the way. It'll easily be one of the toughest defenses they've played all year. But if the Bears can win in the trenches and create some lanes for Isi Sofele and CJ Anderson, things will open up for the rest of Cal's offense. Consider this: the Longhorns are 0-3 when they allow 150+ yards on the ground.
But it really isn't as simple as winning in the trenches. Frankly, Texas' defensive front seven has more talent than our offensive line, and if the game were played straight up, the Longhorns would be favored every time. The Bears need to continue to find creative ways to use Zach Maynard as a running threat. Maynard doesn't need to do much, but establish enough of a threat off the edge to spread out defenders and keep them honest.
Force Texas to become one-dimensional
Despite the playmakers on offense, Texas is a run-first offense. It really isn't close. The Longhorns are ranked 19th nationally, averaging 210.4 yards per game, but are ranked just 85th with 193.6 yards per game through the air. They've rushed the ball a whopping 554 times versus their meager 334 passing attempts.
Much of Texas passing woes stem from their great strength in running the ball and their uncertainty all year with their quarterbacks. Garrett Gilbert started off the year, but after a series of poor performances, was replaced by the rotation of freshmen Case McCoy (younger brother of Colt McCoy) and David Ash.
McCoy appears to have settled down in getting most of the snaps, and Ash has since been relegated to simply running the ball on QB keepers.
McCoy had been fairly smart and efficient with the ball, but against Baylor, McCoy had a nightmarish day in terms of turnovers, throwing 4 interceptions, his only four of the season. While watching the game, I noted just how flustered McCoy could get when pressured. His mechanics break down, and he doesn't have the elite arm strength to get away with throwing off his backfoot.
Like with any first year quarterback, the Bears are going to want to get after McCoy. The Bears can help their cause in confusing McCoy and Texas' offensive line as best they can: disguising their blitz packages, and using stunts and slants to vary their pressure. The Longhorns have surrendered 26 sacks on the year, while the Bears are ranked 23rd nationally with their 30 sacks.
Again, all this is moot if the Bears can't stop the run. They need to be incredibly disciplined in their gap discipline and you can bet the Longhorns are watching game tape of UCLA and Oregon and looking for ways to exploit our young outside linebackers are get to the edge and in space.
However, if the Bears can plug up gaps and put the Longhorns in third and long situations, then they force Texas to become far more one-dimensional. With a team with as one-dimensional on offense, that could be the difference.
Pick up the Blitz
I fully expect the Longhorns to stack the box in an attempt to stuff our budding running game as well as fluster Zach Maynard. They have the athletes in the secondary to compensate for open zones in coverage when dedicating more men in blitz packages, and they likely know full well that most of Maynard's passes are mainly of the short and intermediate variety. Put simply, they're going to dare the Bears to throw deep.
Sure Maynard has put up some nice numbers throwing long, but he's also been prone to some garish interceptions when forcing the ball on 15+ yard patterns.
Fortunately, the Bears have some of the best WRs the Bears could ask for, but it will mean absolutely nothing if the Bears can't pass protect. It's going to require a whole lot of communication, and some great pocket awareness from Maynard to buy himself time and allow Allen and Jones to get into space.
Outlook
I hate to say it, but the Bears are outclassed talent wise in a couple of key categories. Texas' defense continues to scare me, and that rushing attack has the ability to wear some defenses down to the ground.
Still, from what I can gather, I like where the teams' mindset is at, and I do think the Bears' offense is really beginning to click and ready to exploit some overbearing tendencies from Texas' defense. Defensively, the Bears have defended the run well for the most part of the year, and are on the verge of becoming flat out dominant in that category if they can learn to keep containment.
It will require a number of cogs clicking just right, but the Bears can win this one.
Oh, and F*ck you Mack Brown. If for nothing else than that I vehemently dislike you.
And all of the Golden Bear Nation said "Amen."
Prediction
Cal 24 Texas 21
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