Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Pac-12 Roundup: Week 4

Oof. This Pac-12 season is pretty much crushing each and every preseason expectation I had. Right when I think I have a team figured out, they go and suprise me. But hey, it's more fun this way, even if my record doesn't appreciate it.

I went 2-3 last week, with the only correct predictions being having both the Wildcats and the Bears lose. Sad face with a single tear.

I'm a mediocre 24-14 on the season, but I'm hoping to rebound this week. Huzzah!

Arizona 0 Oregon 49
Lowdown:
Wow. While this wasn't the surprise outcome of the week, this is certainly my vote for the most surprising point total. I had expected an offensive shootout, though apparently Arizona didn't get that memo. For what it's worth, this was the most competitive 49-0 blowout I've ever seen, with it still being a game despite the fact that the Ducks were up "just" 21-0 in the third quarter. And after they put up that fourth TD, well you got the sense it just wasn't going to go the Wildcats' way that night.

But what a statement for the Ducks to hold the Wildcats, who had been averaging over 600 yards a game to nearly half that number and 0 points. There is no disputing right now that the Ducks are clearly the class of the conference, and are right up there as one of the best squads in the nation.

Up Next: Arizona needs to rebound against what now looks like a very good Oregon State squad. The Wildcats need to recollect themselves and find out how to take advantage of their opportunities in the red zone because Oregon State's defense looks to be for real.

Meanwhile Oregon travels to a Washington State suddenly scrambling for answers. It's pretty early on, but Oregon doesn't look to be really challenged until they face USC and Stanford in November. If they can survive those tests, Chip Kelly and the Ducks could be looking at their 2nd National Championship game in 3 years. But hey, it's real early.

Utah 7 Arizona State 37
Lowdown:
I dunno why I did it. I knew that going for the sexy upset pick would do me in, but I figured, Utah's got a stout defense, and Kyle Whittingham can coach, let's go with the Utes to pull the upset on the road. I desperately ignored a few factors that have become pretty clear in the early season so far. First off, ASU is a different team at home. They're averaging a blistering 48.3 points per game, and rolled up 37 points on what was a solid defense. Second, QB Taylor Kelly is legit, and is about as efficient and poised for a first time starting QB as I've seen. He reminds me of Kellen Moore in a lot of ways, but more mobile and athletic.

Third, Utah's got some major questions on the offensive side of the ball. The offensive line has struggled to find answers, John White isn't replicating the type of offensive production he had last year (despite getting nearly as many carries), and Utah is still looking to find an answer at quarterback. Jon Hayes is vastly improved, and is doing his best, but this is still a guy who was the Utes' 4th string QB in Spring Ball.

Finally, Utah's defense may have been exposed a bit in their lack of speed on the perimeter. Up front, teams are going to struggle to run on them, but teams like ASU, Oregon, UCLA are going to have their way in simply beating Utah off the edge.

Up Next: Utah gets a much needed bye to begin answering some of the above questions while Arizona State visits your Golden Bears. I'll have more on this as the week goes on, but it's a bit of a make or break game for Cal.

Oregon State 27 UCLA 20
Lowdown:
Last week I picked UCLA over Oregon State because I wasn't sold on the Beaver's offense. Consider me sold. The Beavers have really impressed me so far. Their defensive front are holding the gaps well, their secondary are absolutely draping receivers, and Sean Mannion is looking composed and in command of this offense, going for 369 yards against UCLA's secondary. You can't say enough about the job Mike Riley is done, coming off last season's 3-9 finish and all the talk about a hot seat. Guess what, Riley has your Beavers ranked after to back to back wins over ranked teams, one on the road. Sheesh.

UCLA has officially fallen off Cloud 9 with a rude awakening in conference play. Brett Hundley continued to impress, but UCLA's offense showed how limited it could be when a team keys in on the run and holds Jonathan Franklin to just 45 yards. This Beavers squad showed they're going to be a force to be reckoned with in the conference, while the Bruins are going to look to rebound. Still, you can't deny that they're in a better place than they were a year ago.

Up Next: UCLA gets a Colorado squad that looks to have some fight left in them. The chances of the Buffaloes pulling two major upsets in back to back weeks seem slim, but stranger things have happened. Look for the Bruins to rebound, and get that running game going against a CU squad that for all of its improvements, are still poor in defending the run. And you have to think UCLA's defense is motivated to put on a better showing as well.

Oregon State has a fun one against Arizona. It will be interesting to see how the Beavers' defense matches up against the spread offense of Arizona, but if last Saturday is any indication for both teams, then the Wildcats have the work cut out for them against a very physical OSU squad.

Washington State 34 Colorado 35
Lowdown:
Wow. Just wow. I had tuned out of this game when the Buffaloes were down 21-7 in the first half, thinking CU was just going to be CU. WRONG. I'm glad I had this game recorded, because the Buffaloes pull off the upset of the Pac-12 season taking down the Cougars AT Pullman. The game showed that not only do the Cougars have a ways to go, but that their style of offense is going to make it difficult for them to sustain leads against teams. That and the fact that they have very little running game to speak of. I still believe the Mike Leach hire was a good one, but it was premature for anyone to think he'd have them rolling this early on in the season.

For what it's worth, if Colorado had been considered the worst team in FBS football, just what does that make WSU now?

Up Next: The Buffaloes meanwhile are going to pull it together and try to keep this positive momentum going as they face off against a pissed off UCLA. While you've got to be encouraged by the job Coach Jon Embree has done in keeping that team together over a rough start to the season, it'll be difficult to hold off a Bruins team that has some serious rushing power in QB Brett Hundley and RB Jonathan Franklin.

Meanwhile, what better way for a Washington State to rebound than by hosting the visiting Ducks. Wait what? Whu-oh. Goodbye winning record, it was nice to have known you.

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