Saturday, December 4, 2010

Questioning Jeff Tedford's Quarterback Decisions

Just hours after the Bears played their final game of the season, Jeff Tedford was questioned about the impending quarterback competition. Tedford unequivocally stated that the quarterback competition was wide open, with all six candidates getting a shot. However, I get the sense that a lot of Cal fans are less than convinced that Tedford will give each quarterback will have a fair shot, favoring experience and familiarity over potential and talent. Moreover, some might cynically assume that whoever Tedford gives the starting nod to will ultimately end up being the incorrect choice.

To some extent, it’s hard to blame them. Cal is coming off its worst season in close a decade, and the quarterback play is much to blame. The Bears’ passing offense hit its nadir as it was ranked 9th in the conference this past season, averaging just 174.8 passing yards per game. Much of it course was due to senior Kevin Riley’s season ending injury at OSU, but Riley had only been averaging 174 yards per game prior to his injury, though he was completing 60 percent of his passes and had a solid TD: INT ratio (13:6).

So it’s not without too much surprise that some Cal fans are already tossing their hands in the air, already bent on the notion that Tedford will stubbornly stick with some pre-conceived notions as to who should be behind center come fall, and end up choosing incorrectly.

But in taking a closer look at each quarterback competition every fall since Tedford has been the head coach, it’s hard to find a lot of fault with his decisions as to who would take the starting snaps in each opener. I would actually argue that thus far, Tedford has always made the correct decision in naming the starter.

Of course, how he has handled quarterback play throughout the season is a separate conversation altogether. Another case can be made as to quarterback development as a whole, or lackthereof. But when it comes to going with the right man for the job to start each season, it’s a stretch to really knock any of the previous choices.

Let’s take a look.


2002
Despite Kyle Boller’s eratic play in his previous seasons, this was a bit of a nobrainer. The senior quarterback Boller was the most physically gifted and easily the most experienced of the candidates.

It’s hard to imagine Tedford handing the reigns over to sophomore Reggie Robertson who had played in a few games, including two starts as a freshman, but still paled in comparison to Boller in terms of experience and physical tools. Even more could be said about the idea of starting freshman Richard Schwartz. It simply wasn’t happening.

It was an easy decision that reaped great rewards. Boller had one of the best single seasons in Cal history, throwing for 2,815 yards, and 28 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions. The Bears turned out their first winning season since 1996, and Boller ended up becoming a second-team All Pac-10 selection and a first round draft pick.

2003
There was a bit of a question as to who would be the starter after Boller’s departure. In one of the more interesting fall camps, it really boiled down to a decision between Reggie Robertson (Boller’s backup the previous season), and a virtual unknown in JC transfer Aaron Rodgers who apparently had all the tools, but had to make the jump to playing at the Division 1 level.

It was unlikely that either freshman Steve Levy or Cary Dove would outcompete either Robertson or Boller.

In the end, Tedford went with Robertson who would show to be efficient and competent enough to lead the Bears’ offense until Rodgers was ready to take over midseason. Rodgers simply didn’t have enough to time take in all of Tedford’s offense within a span of just a few months, but it was clear to everyone within the program that Rodgers was the future.

While Robertson performed admirably (despite the Bears jumping out to just a 1-3 record), it’s hard to imagine that Rodgers would have done much better had they rushed him into the job. Upon taking over Rodgers led the Bears to a 7-3 record, including a bowl win over Virginia Tech in the Insight Bowl. I suppose one could argue that Rodgers should have been the starter from the getgo, but I still maintain that it was in Rodgers’ and the team’s best interest to give him the added practice time.

2004
After Rodgers’ fantastic first year as the starter, Rodgers was poised for big things. Little decision here. Rodgers would be the starter, Robertson would be the veteran backup, with Steve Levy ready to jump in if absolutely necessary. The Bears’ coaching staff were unlikely to burn the redshirt of highly touted true freshman Nate Longshore.

The rest was history. Rodgers would have a Heisman candidate type of season while leading the Bears to a 11-2 record and play his way into the first round of the NFL draft. Epic.



2005
After Rodgers’ early departure to the NFL, Tedford was again tasked with the difficult assignment of picking an NFL caliber quarterback’s successor.

The job would ultimately go to redshirt freshman Nate Longshore, despite the arrival of highly-touted JC transfer Joe Ayoob.

Despite the temptation to go with someone nicknamed “the White Michael Vick,” Tedford absolutely made the right decision here. Of course, it’s all in hindsight, but Longshore had an understandable up and down performance in the season opener against Sacramento State, going 8 for 11 for 131 yards, a TD and an INT. Not mind blowing numbers, but they sure looked amazing after Longshore went down with a season-ending injury midway through the second quarter and Ayoob showcased 10 straight incompletions in Cal debut.

Third string Steve Levy would finally get his most significant playing time, throwing two TD passes. Levy looked good enough that he actually had his parents get season tickets thinking that he would be the new starter, only to see Ayoob struggle as a starter for much of the season.

Levy would finish out the season, with efficient, but nonetheless legendary performances against Stanford and BYU.

In hindsight, it’s difficult to say given how small the sample size of Longshore’s playing time this season, but it’s hard to imagine it would have been much worse that Joe Ayoob’s. Even then, Tedford seemed to know that a redshirt freshman Longshore would ultimately end up being the superior quarterback over both Levy and Ayoob. Correct decision here.



2006
After the quarterback debacle that was 2005, Tedford had to start at square one again. On one hand you had Nate Longshore who showed promise in limited playing time, but was coming off a fractured fibula. Joe Ayoob had been mentally beaten so much that he was told by Tedford himself to strongly consider options elsewhere as he would likely begin spring camp as at best, the third-string quarterback. Steve Levy had heroic performances in his two games as a starter, but was still limited in over quarterback prowess and tools.

Tedford again decided with Longshore, who ended up coming as close to any Cal QB has in matching Aaron Rodgers’ excellence in Longshore’s 2006 season. Longshore earned second-team All Pac-10 honors, ending up second in the conference in TDs (24), passing efficiency (141.6), and became just the second QB in school history to throw for 3,000 yards in single season. The Bears finished 10-3 with a share of the Pac-10 title, their first since 1975.

Another season, and most certainly the right call.

2007
Longshore began the season as the established starting quarterback. Steve Levy and Joe Ayoob had graduated, with the only other options being redshirt freshman Kevin Riley and redshirt sophomore Kyle Reed.

Even when deciding upon backups, Tedford appeared to make the right decision in deciding upon Riley over Reed. For all of Riley’s inconsistencies, he would still go on to have a solid career with the Bears, while Reed who subsequently transferred after losing out on the backup job, and struggled to make an impact in the WAC as San Jose State’s starting QB.

Most fans will remember criticizing Tedford after stubbornly sticking with Longshore over Riley when it was evident that Longshore was hobbled after his high ankle sprain, but remember this discussion applies to the decisions with starting QBs in the fall. In this regard, it was an easy deision.

2008
In the most heated quarterback competition yet, Tedford had to decide between Longshore and Riley. Here’s what I wrote about the competition back in 2008.

“In one corner you had Nate Longshore, the veteran quarterback who after seeing great success in his first full year as a starter, entered last season as the top rated junior quarterback and led his team to a 5-0 start and a #2 national ranking. Then after "catching a break" at the end of the Oregon, Longshore became the scapegoat for his team's 2-6 finish for his erratic play in the 4th quarter and inability to perform in the clutch on three game-ending drives.

In the other corner, you had Kevin Riley, the now redshirt—oops I mean blueshirt Sophomore who has shown Cal fans a remarkable ability to make amazing plays in both good and bad ways. What he's lacked in experience, he's delivered in better mobility and a competitive fire that had many Cal fans, and players, believing in him by the end of the season. Helping to erase the boneheaded play at the end of the Oregon State game, Riley shined in his appearance at Armed Forces Bowl, leaving many to proclaim Riley nothing short of the second coming of another great Cal quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.”


Dramatic, eh? Tedford went with the younger Riley, while maintaining both would see playing time in the season opener against Michigan State. Tedford appeared to be a genius in his appointment of Riley as the starter, as Riley completed 202 passing yards and 2 TDs, while Longshore threw two interceptions in both his drives, including one returned for a touchdown.

Both would struggle and shine in moments throughout the season however, with a quarterback carousel that appeared to be beneficial for neither player really. Yet, as evidenced based purely by confidence and performance in the season opener, I still believe Tedford made the right decision to initially go with Riley. Despite being inexperienced, Riley appeared to make better decisions than Longshore in the early going of the season, and Longshore seemed to press a bit too much in an effort to turn his season around.

The jumping between Longshore and Riley during the season is a different matter altogether, but I do think the initial decision was the correct one.

2009
Again, Tedford claimed that the quarterback competition was open, but was named the starter a week before the season opener. It wasn’t much of a surprise to anyone, as then redshirt sophomore Brock Mansion appeared to be too erratic in practice, while redshirt freshman Beau Sweeney lacked the necessary experience to run Tedford’s offense.

Riley had a career day in the opener, throwing for 298 yards and 4 TDs against an outmatched Maryland team. While Riley would have an up and down junior season, he still threw for 2,850 yards and 18 TDs to 8 INTs.

Beau Sweeney who moved up to second string, showed little in his limited playing time against Oregon and Washington State, though displayed enough athleticism that indicated there might be something there down the line.

Brock Mansion was nowhere to be seen however, taking just a few snaps towards the end of the season.

Again, hard to fault Tedford with his decision in this one.

2010
Anyone who had you believing anyone else not named Kevin Riley was going to be the starter this season probably had the last name Mansion or Sweeney.

Tedford would be hardpressed not to go with a senior Kevin Riley, who had start in each of his previous three seasons. Tedford sung Riley’s praises, declaring him the starter at the beginning of fall camp, declaring that Riley was in store for great things.

Those great things never came, though Riley still did a better job than some of his worst criticisms might indicate. Fans crying out for anyone other than Riley in some of Cal’s losses, found themselves dumbfounded with the other options.

Brock Mansion struggled after taking over as the starter with Riley’s season ending in Corvallis. Mansion led his team to a 1-3 record, completing less than 49 percent of his passes, with just two TDs and five interceptions.

Beau Sweeney seemed even more of an enigma. After a scattered performance in garbage time in the season opener, Sweeney regressed in his accuracy during his practice, and eventually lost his starting job to Mansion midway through the season.

So as much as fans were crying out for another option than Riley, little did they know that Tedford really meant it when he said that “Riley gives us the best chance to win.” Oh how true he was.

Outlook
So look through the last nine years. I’m sure you can argue or ponder a “What if?” here or there, but again, it’s hard to make a strong case that Tedford was ever at fault with his previous starting QB decisions. Yes, he’s likely botched the development of some QBs, and could have handled some situations a bit better, but you have to hand it to the guy, he’s been right about every preseason QB decision thus far, and has usually been spot on with the depth chart as well.

Of course, I speak from a position of hindsight. People are valid in questioning Tedford’s decisions in the moment, especially in moments where the team struggles. But I guess my point is that Tedford has a better pulse of this team than any armchair quarterback coach who follows blogs or forums ever will, and has been pretty spot on in every assessment he’s made with the starting nods at the QB position.

He’s got a tough task coming up though, with a choice of six different quarterbacks for this upcoming season. While some might bemoan the idea of a certain QB position getting first team reps come spring or fall, all I’m saying is that for now, I’m giving Tedford the benefit of the doubt. I mean, thus far, he’s earned it.

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