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Not all teams with the same record are alike. USC has the same 3-1 record as Arizona, yet it's too early to determine whether the two teams are of the same quality. Conversely, the Bears are 1-3, but it'd be deceiving to think they're as bad as any other 1-3 team in the nation.
The Bears are coming out of one of their toughest portions of their schedule, with road trips against then #12 ranked Buckeyes and #13 ranked USC.
Consider this. The Bears' competition are a combined 12-4 so far on the season. 9-3 if you discount their respective game against the Bears. So while some might scoff at Southern Utah being one of the teams in that mix (as they should), it's not out of the question to say that the Bears have faced 3 teams that might be their respective conference champions when it's all said and done at the end of the season.
So it almost goes without saying that teams can't necessarily be measured by their record, at least at this point in the season. Are the Bears as bad as their 1-3 record would indicate? Probably not, but again, you have to let this season play out to say for sure.
With all that said, Saturday's game is absolutely critical for the Bears' hopes in salvaging this season. I'm not going to be as overdramatic as to say that the season hinges on the game's outcome, but I will say this game could very much set the tone for the rest of conference play. And at the very least, the Bears need as many "W"s as possible in their quest for bowl eligibility.
The task seems large with the ASU Sun Devils playing with renewed energy, discipline and confidence. Led by new coach Todd "This is my dream job, I swear" Graham, the Sun Devils have cut back on the penalties that have plagued their program, and have shown an efficiency on offense that's truly frightening.
Let's get into the details.
The Bears continue their gauntlet of facing top tier QBs, and it doesn't get any easier against new starting QB Taylor Kelly. The conference's top rated quarterback (and it isn't really close) has been an absolute revelation and is one of the primary reasons why Arizona State is averaging over 41 points per game right now.
I've been impressed with Taylor Kelly since the season opener. He's never once looked wide-eyed or rattled for a first year starter, and is running this offense like a seasoned veteran. He's completing over 70% of his passes, rushing for close to 40 yards per game, and is playing generally mistake-free football. Heck, he's even a decent punter.
Needless to say he's doing a lot of things well right now. The one time I've seen Kelly look human was on the road in their loss against Missouri. Kelly hardly looked terrible, but was far from the efficient passer he'd been this season. The difference? The Tigers got after Kelly in that game. He was constantly flushed from the pocket, forced to rush through his progressions, and even pressured into...dare I say...mistakes?
I understand the challenge of playing against Arizona's uptempo, zone-read offense, but I was amazed at the lack of pressure that Utah brought against the Sun Devils. I'd like to think their lack of speed on the perimeter forced them to dedicate more defenders to guarding ASU's spread attack, but Kelly had all day to throw, particularly in the first half. When that happens, he's got all day to go through his progressions and get the ball out quickly.
Typically when you defend the zone-read, you've got to dial back the pressure a bit so you can make sure you can get a hat on hat and avoid allowing your QB to get out of the backfield in open space. But the Bears absolutely cannot afford to let Kelly sit back and admire the view. He will absolutely pick the Bears apart. Cal needs to pressure Kelly with a variety of different looks, just enough to force some indecision and get this offense out of rhythm. When they get rolling, this Sun Devil offense is near impossible to stop.
Get Out to an Early Lead
The Sun Devils are all about jumping out to an early lead in the first half and nursing those points through the second.
In their first four games, they've outscored their opponents by a staggering 108-31 margin in the first half. Their lone loss? When ASU trailed Missouri 7-17 at halftime.
That's a daunting stat for the Bears who have struggled to find their offensive rhythm early on in their games. The Bears have been outscored by their opponents 37-61 in the first half of their games. Cal's only halftime lead? Against FCS Southern Utah. In fact, that was the only game the Bears topped 7 points before halftime.
Cal can't afford to fall into an early hole against the Sun Devils. ASU's offense has too many options in their run game to realistically squander a first half lead. The Bears have to get their offense going right off the bat, or at the very least, keep ASU's points down with a tight lead in the first half. Otherwise, this game could very well be over by halftime.
Offense Needs to Play Their Game
On paper, this ASU defense looks like the next coming of the 85 Bears (not Golden). They currently lead the conference in scoring defense (12.8 ppg) and total defense (274 ypg).
But keep in mind that the Sun Devils haven't played any real world beaters, at least offensively yet. Consider the their opponents' rankings in terms of scoring offense: Missouri (59th), Illinois (78th), Utah (94th), and FCS Northern Arizona. Perhaps more telling are the rankings of their opponents' total offenses: Missouri (99th,) Illinois (102nd), and Utah (115th). None of these teams are averaging more than 350 yards per game.
A lot of it has to do with the fact that the Sun Devils have yet to play a QB with their original starting QB.
This is not to say that this defense is vastly overrated. Anyone who watches this team has seen a really active, physical defense, particularly upfront with Will Sutton being an absolutely disruptive force in opponents' backfields. These guys can play.
However, this defense can be had. I'm convinced of it. And despite all the Bears' offensive woes, they've shown an ability to move the ball. They need to get back to playing what has been working for them.
It starts with going back to a greater commitment to the run game. And this isn't to say they need to try and stuff it down ASU's stout defensive line. They've shown some good things with their zone read last week, and Maynard actually had a pretty good day running the ball if you take away the lost yardage on sacks. Bigelow also needs to get at least 8 touches in the game somehow.
If they can establish more of a rhythm in the run game, they can go back and set up of a passing offense that's more suited to Zach Maynard's toolset. Giving him simple hitches, slants, and bubble screens. They can get him back to throwing on the run on bootlegs and simple roll-outs. They've got to get away from having him drop back and try to stretch the field vertically.
And of course, the Bears need to finish in the redzone. But that's a whole other conversation.
Outlook
On paper, there's a lot of reasons to think the Bears have a long day ahead of them. The Sun Devils have been rolling on offense, while the Bears' defense ranks dead last in numerous statistical categories in the conference.
ASU's defense currently leads the conference, while Cal's offense has been forced to overcome sluggish starts and ineptitude in the redzone.
Despite that, I still think the Bears find a way to pull this one out. I believe they'll get back to what has been working for them on offense, while their defense uses their experience against Nevada and Ohio State as a framework for defending ASU's spread.
And more than anything, you have to believe the Bears want this more. Or they at least better. But from every indication I've seen and heard about this team, I believe this team is hungry for a win. They need this game, and they know it. Clearly for the sake of the season, but to affirm for themselves all the ways they believe they've been improving, despite their record.
Call it blind hope, but I think the Bears can get it done.
Prediction:
Cal 27 ASU 24
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