Keys to the Game: Washington 2010

"We are going to win that game and we are going to go to a bowl game." – Sean Cattouse

The Bears find themselves in unfamiliar territory. For the first time in Jeff Tedford’s tenure at Cal, the Bears enter their final game of the regular season with their post season plans in doubt. The Bears have typically locked up bowl eligibility by October, but find themselves needing to win their final game against Washington to become bowl eligible.

And in terms of prognostications, it’s just been a doozy of a year. For much of the year, most had backed themselves into the “Bears are good at home, bad on the road" argument. That thinking was obviously torn up during the Bears debacle of a Big Game last Saturday.

Let’s face it. The Bears have played like a mediocre team this year, with enough amazing and awful performances to leave you scratching your head. But for every inconsistency with this team, the Bears have been pretty consistent in one regard: They’ve beaten bad to mediocre teams, and have lost to good to great teams. And all but two contests have been close.

So where does that leave us for this Saturday? How the hell should I know? But if we were to make any guess based on this season, it’s that the Bears eek one out against a Washington squad that’s just about as enigmatic as we are.

Let’s get to a few keys.


Contain, Contain, Contain
The Bears have killed themselves this year (save for Oregon) with their inability to contain mobile quarterbacks in the pocket. The results have been disastrous, with the end result either being huge gains on the ground by the quarterback or connections with scrambling wide receivers as the quarterback bought time rolling out of the pocket.

Unfortunately for the Bears, they squared off against the most mobile quarterback they’ve faced so far. That’s quite a statement given some of the quarterbacks they’ve defended this year (Kaepernick, Thomas, Luck), but Locker might have legit 4.4 speed, not blah-blah-Terrelle-Pryor-4.3 nonsense.

The good news is that Locker can be slowed down. While he’s a threat to take it the distance on each carry, he can be held to moderate gains when defenses actually gameplan around him. In fact, I’d argue that Andrew Luck is probably the more dangerous running threat of the two quarterbacks at this point. On the season, Locker is averaging just 3.28 yards per carry, despite getting on average 9 running plays a game.

The bigger issue will be whether they can keep Locker in the pocket so that he doesn’t buy time with his feet. The Huskies feature a dangerous wide receiver corps of Jermaine Kearse, Devin Aguilar, and D’Andre Goodwin. Kearse in particular has shown a knack for finding soft spots in zones or shaking his defender when Locker is on the move. Nearly every big throw I’ve seen Locker made has come on some kind of play action or roll out. Seriously, just look up his highlight footage and from 2009, and you’ll see what I mean.

I’d refrain from saying that the Bears need to commit a defender to spy on Locker, but the contain packages on defense need a very close look this week. Locker will roll out, and unless they’re committing a defensive end or linebacker to closing the gap on Locker, he’s going to hurt the Bears big time.

Get it going on the ground
To say the Bears have struggled on offense this season would be a major understatement. The Bears teeter in the bottom half of the conference in scoring and total offense, and have averaged just 13.5 points per game since rolling up 50 against ASU back in Oregon State. Much of this has to do with the deficiencies in the passing game, with Brock Mansion failing to develop any level of passing rhythm with his receivers.

The one hope the Bears have in staging any semblance of an offensive attack is that for all of the Bears offensive woes, the Huskies have matched in terms of their own defensive inconsistencies. The Huskies give up 412 yards per game (8th in conference), 33.3 ppg (9th in conference) and have been highly susceptible to giving up big yardage on the ground, yielding 208 ypg (9th in conference).

In fact, until Washington’s defensive shutdown of UCLA last week (24-7), the Huskies hadn’t held an opponent to fewer than 20 points all season. The difference? The lack of a real threat at quarterback, with UCLA’s Richard Brehaut proving ineffective before a concussion opened the door for a miserable day for the Bruins’ 3rd and 4th string quarterbacks.

Cal fans can’t be too heartened with that given the Bears’ struggles at quarterback. However, if the Bears can win the battle upfront and open up some running lanes for Shane Vereen, there’s no reason the Bears shouldn’t be able to keep Locker on the sidelines and give the Bears the goahead lead down the stretch.

How much is left in the tank?
All week long, the team has been reiterating that it’s not a matter of heart, it’s a matter of execution. Most of me agrees with the statement. I feel the Bears have shown up ready to play, though their focus and execution has been undisciplined and poor in many cases.

I have little doubt the Bears will try and get themselves ready. After all, a lot is on the line, for reasons I’ve already discussed. But the Bears have had one hell of a draining season. From the blowouts, to losing their starting quarterback for the season, to giving up the axe in an embarrassing fashion, there’s no way this season hasn’t worn on everyone on the team, from the players to the coaches.

You think we fans have it rough? We have the comfort of being able to return to our lives, whether it’s school or work during the course of the week. For this team, their lives center around this game and the components necessary to ensure its success.

So it’s not whether I think the Bears will try out there, it’s whether the Bears have anything left to give. Here’s hoping they can dig deep just one last time to pull out the win in front of what’s anticipated to be a depleted home crowd full of fans who have gone home for the holidays, or who have simply decided to go home.

"This is what this week's about. All the lifting, running and everything we've done since last January comes down to this week."
-Head Coach Jeff Tedford

Prediction
Cal 27
Washington 20