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It's Big Game Week! As with most rivalries, the Big Game seems to take on increased meaning with each passing year, despite the Bears entering the game with a mediocre 5-5 record.
For the second year in a row, Cal enters the contest as an underdog to the Cardinal. Last year Stanford had come into the Big Game as the hottest team in the country, dominating both Oregon and USC in back to back weeks. This year, the story in the Bay is likely to be whether the Bears can derail Rose Bowl aspirations for 9-1 Stanford squad that has its best start in what seems like forever.
Stanford is the unquestionable number two team in the conference, and has a bit of an argument for the best one-loss team in the nation. Led by Heisman candidate and likely number one overall pick in next year's draft, quarterback Andrew Luck, the Cardinal offense has been stellar this year. The biggest difference in this year's Stanford team however, has been the improved defensive unit which has been energized by the shift to the 3-4 and some revelations at key defensive positions.
Needless to say, Tedford faces off against the best Stanford team that he has seen in his tenure as head coach for the Bears.
The key is how focused and motivated the Bears will show up for Saturday's contest. The Bears have been hot and cold all season, and defensively dominant squad at home, but are coming off a gut-wrenching near upset of top ranked Oregon.
Also, what will the coaching staff dial up in their gameplans? Tedford has seen his offense stall this season, and become nearly anemic at times with quarterback Brock Mansion making his third career start. How will they mask their deficiencies on offense without becoming gimmicky? Also, will Clancy Pendergast have something up his sleeve in his first attempt at defending a true pro style offense since the USC debacle?
I don't have the answers. But here are some thoughts:
Long, Sustained Drives
Last week, I maintained that the key to slowing down Oregon's offense was to hold onto the ball on offense for sustained periods of time. Rest your defense and keep the Oregon's offense off the field to keep yourself from falling into a huge point deficit.
This week, I think that's going to again be the key, but for slightly different reasons. Stanford's offense doesn't move at nearly the pace Oregon does, but is nearly as productive.
It's difficult to expect the Bears to string up 30+ points on what has proved to be a very solid defensive Cardinal squad. But if they can average a TD a quarter on longer drives while eating up clock, it will do wonders if the Bears can keep Stanford's offense to just one or two possessions a quarter.
Another benefit is that while Stanford has some defensive playmakers, they're not yet the deepest defensive team. Their linebacking corps is made up of two converted defensive ends and Owen Marecic who goes both ways (heh), playing offense and defense. After these three and Shane Skov, there isn't much else. If the Bears can keep Stanford's defense on the field, there's a much higher likelihood that they're able to take over, particularly at the line of scrimmage, late in the game.
I expect a fairly heavy dose of run. I'm not saying that the Bears go up the gut every play, but expect Vereen to pound the tackles, and a few more carries for Sofele, Jones, Allen, and Ross (if he's healthy). A lot of this will depend on the Bears offensive line and whether they can again win the line of scrimmage like they did last year.
If the Bears begin missing in their passing game and face a couple of 3rd and longs, it's going to be a long and tough day for the Bears.
Get the Bears in Space
The last time Stanford was at Memorial Stadium, we beat them on the edges with speed and took advantage of their overaggressiveness with some play action and reverses.
While the Stanford defense is still one of the better defensive teams in the conference, they still lack in speed overall.
I hope the Bears take advantage of this again by finding creative ways to get their playmakers in space, particularly off the edges. When I listed sustained drives as a key for success earlier, I did not equate that with being overly conservative. I'm hoping we see HB tosses with zone blocking, reverses, a few sweeps on the Wildcat, and flanker screens (only if there's better blocking).
Contain Luck
I was going to state that the biggest key in defending Luck was to find ways to rattle him by sending pressure and confusing him with different defensive looks. Luck, as fantastic as he is, has still shown that he is prone to being rattled.
However, this has more to do with what we have seen from this year's defensive team than in the ways Luck has progressed. The Bears need to keep Luck in the pocket.
First off, there's the fact that Luck is a fantastic runner. While he isn't Jake Locker-esque, he's an absolute threat when he tucks it and takes off. He's averaging over 8 yards a carry! and has hit paydirt three times this year.
But more importantly, Luck has shown uncanny ability to buy himself time in the pocket, and very strong accuracy when rolling out and throwing on the run. I'm essentially having nightmarish flashbacks of what Matt Barkley did to the Bears this past year.
I'm hoping the Bears keep what they've been doing the past few weeks with their 3-3-5 look. Let's face it, the Bears have found no answer at the second outside linebacker position opposite Mychal Kendricks. They've intelligently foregone that position and instead have brought in an extra safety to help with pass or run defense. It's also given the Bears an extra dimension of speed when defending mobile quarterbacks like Jeff Tuel and Darron Thomas. I'm not sure what they'll decide to do given the pro style offense that Stanford runs versus the spread offenses they've faced, but it will be interesting to see.
Outlook
It's tricky. My heart says the Bears shock a lot of people, defensively dominate the Cardinal while the Bears offense comes alive in Mansion's coming out party while the Cal offensive line again dominates in the trenches.
My head however, has a hard time reconciling how the Bears can possibly score enough to keep up with Stanford's offense. Their offense is too polished while ours simply isn't.
With that said, it's Big Game week. If there were ever a week for believing and going with your heart over logic, this is it. The Bears pounce and keep the Axe.
Prediction
Cal 23
Stanford 21
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