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With just two games to go this season, the Bears’ bowl picture is clearing up a bit.
First and foremost, the Bears need to become bowl eligible, beating either Stanford or Washington in the next few weeks to tally up the necessary six wins for the season. That’s certainly no gimme, but definitely possible.
Now, provided that the Bears can become bowl eligible, the options are limited and surprisingly very beneficial for the Bears. Believe it or not, the competitive nature of the conference has made is so that the Bears are likely headed for the Holiday or Sun Bowl.
Yeah, I’m shocked too. My friend outlined it for me in the following chat we had over the weekend.
Friend:
believe it or not
but
i think we could actually go to the holiday bowl
osu may not be bowl eligible
asu, ucla, wsu also are not
usc is also out
we may finish ahead of arizona
uw is also pbb not going to be bowl eligible
that means only oregon and stanford are ahead of us
me: wtf??
lemme take a look at this (standings)
Friend: i think our worst case scenario is sun bowl, even if we lose to stanford
barring a series of unusual events
if stanford makes bcs
our worst case is pbb holiday
no joke
osu's loss today really puts them behind the 8-ball
and usc is ineligible
me: so our making holiday bowl depends on a loss to stanford, stanford winning out, and our beating washington?
Friend: well no
there are two ways of getting to the holiday
me: wait sorry
Friend: 1. stanford makes BCS
we are #4
behind AZ, stanford and OR
we go to holiday
2. we win out, and az loses out (oregon, plus rivalry against ASU)
then we are #3, stanford is #2 going to alamo
and we go to holiday
So there you have it. Uncle Ted over at ESPN also has us in the Holiday Bowl.
Confusing, I know. Who would have ever thought a 7-5 squad would make the Holiday Bowl?
2 comments:
I hadn't considered the leap-frogging Arizona case. Thanks!
More to consider... we don't even need Arizona to lose out. If they lose to Oregon and then beat ASU, they're 5-4 in conference and 8-4 overall. Cal, if we win the Big Game and beat UW, we're 5-4 in conference and 7-5 overall. Because we've got identical Pac-10 records the Holiday Bowl is able to pick and since Arizona was there last year (and finishes in a relative free-fall and unranked) and the Bears have always had a good showing in San Deigo, there's a 50% chance the Holiday Bowl selects Cal over Arizona.
There's a long ways to go, but I think there's a decent chance Arizona and Cal tie for 3rd. Cal needs to win one, Arizona needs to lose to Oregon and ASU. That's not inconceivable, and then I think HB takes Cal because Arizona was there last year (and was pasted). But if Arizona beats ASU (assuming they lose to Oregon), then they are going to HB with better Pac-10 record and Cal's likely headed to Sun. (Miller has this one wrong, Arizona would finish 5-4, Cal would be 4-5)
Also, don't forget about UCLA. If they win 2 of 3 from UW, ASU, and USC, they finish at 4-5, hypothetically tied with Cal and I'm saying it's better than 50% chance HB would take them. When there are ties, it's up to the committee and UCLA would outdraw Cal this year, which is all that the selection is about, especially given that Cal was in Poinsettia last year, and two other HBs. UCLA hasn't been in the HB. If there's a 3-way tie with Arizona, Cal could even end up in Vegas or Hunger bowls.
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