Keys to the Game: UC Davis 2010

Oh, hells to the yes. It’ just about that time. After eight excruciating months of waiting, the college football season has officially kicked off and we are mere hours away from Cal’s season opener against UC Davis.

Granted, expectations for Cal are lower than they’ve been in quite some time, and Cal starts off the season with a matchup that lacks much of the hype like they had with previous foes such as Tennessee or Maryland. But make no mistake about it, this blogger’s blood is boiling and you can bet the team and coaches are revved up to go after ending last season on a low note with back to back losses to Washington and Utah.

The Bears begin their season at home against the UC Davis Aggies, a Division I-AA (FCS) team and University of California brethren. Honestly, it’s been fairly difficult to find information about UC Davis. Normally, when I write up my weekly Keys to the Game, I try to write about both what Cal needs to do as well as what they need to exploit based on what I know about our opponents. Again, with the Aggies, I know very little.

Here’s what I do know. The Aggies are led by Coach Bob Biggs who has been at Davis for a while (17 years). Their top offensive weapon, QB Greg Denham decided not to return for his senior season and instead decided to go into ministry. He is replaced by redshirt freshman Randy Wright. Yet despite lacking some playmakers, they were the Great West Conference champions last year. They appear to be well coached and play disciplined ball with a strong teamwork ethic.

That’s about all I know. I mean, I could have read a lot more, but that would require…you know, work and stuff.

One thing that has become apparent in days leading up to the game though, is how pissed off the Aggies fanbase appears to be about being underestimated in their matchup. I’m being serious here. I keep reading that the fans feel disrespected by Cal’s arrogance and believe they will make the matchup far more competitive than most might predict. Their reasoning? They beat Stanford back in 2005 and kept it close with Boise State through the fourth quarter last year.

Okay.



Look, I’m not expecting Cal to try and intentionally run up the score, nor am I expecting a 70-0 thrashing. It’s simply not Tedford’s style. In fact, I think the Bears are going to be overly cautious and conservative in their gameplan for tomorrow. But I will say that the Bears are going to amped for this one. Realistically speaking, you’ve got to think that the Bears are hoping to roll up a healthy margin early on and use the rest of the game as a means to work out some kinks and continue to evaluate their talent.

Not that it really matters, but I’m not saying this to be denigrating to the UC Davis fanbase. But the Aggies are simply outmatched in nearly every phase of the game. Their best hope is that they don’t beat themselves, avoid as many turnovers and penalties as possible, and use the game as a learning experience.

As for the Bears, I’m going to keep the actual keys fairly simple. This is less about what the Bears need to do to win, but what their goals should be and what they should be hoping to get out of tomorrow’s matchup.

Begin Building Offensive Rhythm
Given the number of question marks regarding this offensive unit this season, it will be important for the Bears to begin building some offensive rhythm with a tune up game. The Bears can run the ball and know what they have with Shane Vereen in the backfield.

The Bears’ issues last year were with their passing attack, so look for the Bears to air it out early and often. We’re going to see a healthy dose of running plays, and Tedford has already stated that they’ll be looking for offensive balance but the Bears may lean a bit more heavily on throwing the ball early in the game. Tedford has also indicated that they’ll be looking to call more high percentage passes this season, so we may call fewer deep balls or more five to fifteen yard pattern plays. Given the number of receivers we looking to be breaking in this year (Allen, Edmonds, Calvin-sort of), it’ll be critical now to begin building that rapport.

Rattle Wright
I’ve said this one plenty times, and it’s fairly cliché, but when you’re facing a QB making his first career start at Memorial Stadium, you want to show you can rattle the kid. No need to call for a trips corner blitz consistently, but a number of difference looks defensively (stunts, blitzes) can go a long ways in terms of forcing Wright into some errant throws and disrupting his passing rhythm.

It’s not all going to be on the defensive line and linebacking corps, however. Rattling Wright can also be achieving a level of tighter man coverage. This particular aspect will be interesting to see as one can be sure that Pendergast’s new defensive schemes may rely a bit more on man coverage versus the zone coverage we became so accustomed to seeing und Gregory’s defense. Having a defensive back stay on the receiver an additional second does wonders for flushing a QB out of the pocket or possibly landing a sack.

The Bears became notorious last year for giving rookie quarterbacks career days through the air, including UCLA’s Kevin Prince and WSU’s Jeff Tuel. If Wright can anywhere close to those numbers, then, whoo boy, it’ll be a long game and a long season.

Let’s See Those Special Teams
Interestingly, Cal had one of the better kick return units statistically last year. What skews that statistic though, was how short our kickoffs were. The oppositional starting field position was absolutely ridiculous, as Giorgio Tavecchio was last in the conference averaging just 58.91 yards per kickoff, and just 3 touchbacks (2 of which I believe rolled into the endzone).

Ok, that crap needs to stop. Seriously. And I actually believe it will. Kickers take a while to develop at Cal for some reason, and I’m feeling confident that Tavecchio will be much more consistent this year both on kickoffs and with field goals. Don’t expect Tavecchio to boot each kickoff into the endzone, I think most won’t actually, but I think we’ll see far fewer kickoffs ending up at the twenty yard line.

It begins on Saturday.

Outlook
I fully predict the Aggies to show up for this one. They’re a well-coached team, appear to execute well on their gameplans, and will be amped to play a big-time opponent so close to home. They may keep it close through the first half, as the Bears often have slow starts at home.

With that said, it’s not an attack to say the Aggies are outmatched and will eventually be worn down by the Bears rushing attack and done in by a number of big plays.

Prediction:
Cal 52 UC Davis 13