Cal's Starting Lineup - A Recruiting Ranking Perspective

With the depth chart set for this Saturday’s season opener, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at the starting lineup from a recruiting rating standpoint. In order to have any takeaways, you have to act under some pretty bold assumptions, namely that recruiting rankings are a precise predictor of talent. And as we’ve seen over the years, they’re not.

Plenty of players have gone undervalued and unrecruited over the years, only to become some of the top players in the nation, and eventually in the NFL. A short list of these players at Cal include Aaron Rodgers, Alex Mack, Justin Forsett, and most recently Mike Mohamed. It also has worked in reverse as well, with highly acclaimed players not quite panning out the ways most would have hoped, like Joe Ayoob. I will say though at Cal, the former has been far more often the case.

With that said, I believe there is something to be said about one’s recruiting rankings and the general indicator of how a player might perform at the collegiate level. Yes, it’s far from perfect, and there are many outliers, but it’s interesting once in a while to check in to see how our starters look from a pure talent standpoint, as reflected by what scouts rated them coming into the NCAA. I mean it’s no secret that the most successful teams have often been ones with the elite talent. I mean, that part’s kind of obvious.

So let’s take a look at our offensive starters.

LT - Mitchell Schwartz
Rivals: 3 stars (Ranked #27 at position)
Scout: 3 stars (Ranked #24 at OG position)

LG - Brian Schwenke
Rivals: 3 stars (Ranked #32 at position)
Scout: 3 stars (Ranked #33 at position)

C - Chris Guarnero
Rivals: 4 stars (Ranked #19 at position)

RG - Justin Cheadle
Rivals: 3 stars (Ranked #33 at position)
Scout: 4 stars (Ranked #13 at position)

-or-

RG - Dominic Galas
Rivals: 3 stars (Ranked #9 at C position)
Scout: 3 stars (Ranked #12 at C position)

RT – Donovan Edwards
Rivals and Scout: Unrated

-or-

RT - Matt Summers-Gavin
Rivals: 4 stars (Ranked #11 at position)
Scout: 4 stars (Ranked #14 at position)

TE - Anthony Miller
Rivals: 3 stars (Ranked #18 at position)
Scout: 3 stars (Ranked #53 at position)

WR - Marvin Jones
Rivals: 4 stars (Ranked #22 at position)
Scout: 4 stars (Ranked #23 at position)

WR - Keenan Allen
Rivals: 5 stars (Ranked #1 at S position)
Scout: 5 stars (Ranked #1 at S position)

RB - Shane Vereen
Rivals: 4 stars (Ranked #5 at position)
Scout: 4 stars (Ranked #24 at position)

FB – Eric Stevens
Rivals and Scout: Unranked

QB - Kevin Riley
Scout: 4 stars (Ranked #18 at position)
Rivals: 4 stars (Ranked #6 at position)

After the jump, my observations and thoughts to the recruiting star breakdown.


Observations:
- The offensive line appears to be fairly solid in terms of recruiting rankings. It’s hardly in the shape as some schools (cough *UCLA*) of having to rely on walk-ons and JC transfers to fill some gaps. The only JC transfer player is Donovan Edwards, who is projected to start at RT this Saturday while Matt Summers-Gavin continues to comeback from injury, although MSG will play. Although I do think Edwards came on strong at the end of the 2008 season, the line looks a whole lot better once you plug MSG into the starting lineup. A whole lot.

- I was a bit surprised with Anthony Miller’s ratings. I could swear he was a 4 star prospect at one point, but my memory might be getting fuzzy. It doesn’t matter much though, with Miller returning as the conference’s top pass-catching TE. The depth looks good as well with 4 star Spencer Ladner finally getting a crack at the rotation in the second TE spot.

- Obviously, Keenan Allen jumps out, and for good reason. He’s the jewel of the 2010 recruiting class, a genuine 5 star recruit, and the top player at the safety position, in the nation. While he won’t be playing safety, it says a whole lot when you think about his athletic and playmaking ability on the field. The closest comparison in terms of recruiting hype and possibly fulfilling potential is what we saw with Desean Jackson. Allen doesn’t have quite the speed, but this kid has a chance to be a real gamechanger. Paired with 4 star receiver Marvin Jones, and we’ve got what could a dynamic receiver duo.

- Shane Vereen fell a little bit behind the curtain with Jahvid Best’s signing, but this guy was an amazing pickup for the Bears. The fact that we got both in the same class still amazes me. I’m actually hoping for the same this year with Daniel Lasco and Brendon Bigelow. Ranked the #5 RB prospect in the nation by Rivals, and we have a sense that those guys knew what the business was with Vereen.

- I wouldn’t worry too much about the lacking of rankings or stars for the fullback position. Tedford and Co. have rarely recruited fullbacks, and have been comfortable with walk-ons. Given what Coach Gould has done as of late, you’re not going to hear too much argument from me.

- Kevin Riley was a solid 4 star recruit. He was arguably the best QB prospect in the state of Oregon, although you wonder how his ratings would have fluctuated in other states. He was an Elite 11 prospect, and got positive praise in camps alongside some other QBs you might have heard of like Jake Locker and Tim Tebow. Riley probably won’t be a first round pick like them, but he could certainly move into NFL conversations with a solid senior year.

- Overall, it’s a pretty talented bunch. It isn’t a stacked group across the board, yet there doesn’t appear to be any glaring weaknesses. One way to possibly to describe the group is “solid” with a potential “very good” at certain skill positions. You look at the backfield and wide receiver corps, and you can’t really shake your head at anything. The question again will come down to the o-line in my book.

In the next post, the defense.