Keys to the Game: Nevada 2010

(Oh yes he can.)

“We don’t want to be a defense that stands around and holds bags. We want to be active and disruptive.”

-Defensive Coordinator Clancy Pendergast

The Bears head into Friday’s game against the Nevada Wolfpack riding high off of two dominating wins over lesser opponents in UC Davis and Colorado. The Bears should expect a far bigger challenge as they face off against Nevada’s tricky and dangerous offense.

Many have debated the level of challenge the Wolfpack might provide, but I have long looked at this game as one of the trickiest on the Bears’ schedule for a number of reasons. First off, it’s a Friday night game which means the Bears have one less day to rest up physically and gameplan for a tricky offensive scheme. Secondly, it’s a non-conference road game, and while the Bears don’t have to travel to Maryland or Knoxville, it could still pose challenges with it being the first away game, at a higher altitude which might throw off the Bears. Finally, while I don’t think Nevada is an elite team by any means, I do think they’ll be a substantial jump in quality over UC Davis and Colorado, and they are led by one of the most potent offenses in the nation.

Needless to say, one or two mistakes, and the game could easily starting swinging away from the Bears. Let’s start breaking it down.


What You Need to Know
The biggest concern will be how the revamped Bears’ defense handles the high powered Nevada offense. To put things in perspective, at this early point in the season, we have a battle between the number one offense (Nevada) versus the number one defense (Cal) in the nation. The Wolfpack average a whopping 592 yards per game, while the Bears have only given up on average 160 yards per game on defense.

In terms of personnel, Nevada features a huge offensive line, with the average height being at least 6’5, and a few as tall as 6’8 and 6’6 guards in senior left guard John Bender and senior right tackle John Acuna.

They also have a dynamic and powerful runningback similar to Shane Vereen, in Vai Taua who also rocks the #34 jersey. The kid is fast, can break tackles, and hits the hole hard.

The star on offense who makes it all tick though, is senior quarterback Colin Kaepernick. The 6’6 dual threat quarterback runs Nevada’s pistol offense to perfection and has passed for 7,623 yards and tacked on a ridiculous 6,523 yards on the ground in his three years as a starter. Thus far this season, Kaepernick already has 221 yards and 4 TDs on the ground, as well as 547 yards and another 4 TDs through the air. This guy is a huge threat, plain and simple.

Discipline on Defense
The key to defending “gimmicky” or option offenses, is really to play assignment football. As tricky as the offenses may appear, these offenses are predicated upon trying to get you to look in a direction away from your assignment and get you out of position. The Bears can help themselves if they play disciplined ball on defense.

OLB Jarred Price said it pretty well, “Don’t try to do too much; just do your job. Do what you need to do and don’t try to be anybody else.”

In a way, I wish I could sound a lot smarter and say there’s more to it, but defending the option is truly about being disciplined and following gap assignments to avoid stepping aside for huge running lanes or giving a mobile QB free space to bust a big play.

Granted, there are going to be a few things the Bears will have to do on top of staying disciplined. They will probably want to assign a smart and speedy linebacker to spy QB Kaepernick to help slow down that running threat should he take off and run. By all accounts, that should be ILB Mike Mohamed, assuming he’s fully healed from his sprained toe injury, though that’s far from certain.

The Bears will also want to try to do their best to disrupt the backfield. When Nevada is working out of their version of the triple option, plays can often take a bit more time to develop and the Bears might benefit greatly from rushing one or two speedy backers from the outside to get in the backfield as soon as possible. But the key will be how strategic the Bears are with their blitzes, because they might find a linebacker running head on into Kaepernick just as they see him pitching off to a sprinting back. Discipline.

(Yes this is a scrawny HS Kaepernick at Memorial Stadium.)

Establish the Running Game
As dynamic as Nevada’s offense has been, their defense hasn’t quite matched their counterpart’s performance.

Nevada only ranks 70th in total defense on the season, and their opponents haven’t quite been offensive juggernauts either, in Eastern Washington and Colorado State. While the Wolfpack offense has hung 100 points, they’ve also given up 30 points and an average of 352 yards per game.

Also, here’s an even closer look at the stats. The Wolf Pack have given up on average 120 yards per game on the ground, to go along with 232 yards through the air. More telling is the yards per attempt number, in which Nevada averages 6.1 ypa (47th in the nation), and 57.9 completion percentage (61st in the nation). Really, those are pretty mediocre numbers when one considers the competition they’ve face.

Granted, those numbers are skewed a little bit when one considers that defenses play a bit more of a prevent defense once they build a big lead, and are likely to give up more yards. But all things considered, you have to think the Bears have a chance to put up some points in what has the potential to be a bit of a shootout.

Similar to their defensive approach, I don’t think the Bears should have to resort to any tricks to beat the Nevada offense. I think they have the personnel to match up well against the Wolfpack to have an advantage with most units. So it goes with an understanding that the key should be to establish one’s presence in the running game.

I really do think that this needs to be the game in which the Bears recommit themselves to a higher expectation of run blocking, and allow Shane Vereen to wear the Wolfpack defense down. The o-line needs to play flat out nasty, and just as importantly, we need to see fewer whiffs from the tight ends and fullbacks so that Vereen has a chance to gain positive yardage. You can bet Nevada will plan on stacking the box like Colorado did last week, with hopes that Riley might beat him through the air.

The longer and more sustained the drives, the longer the Bears can keep the Wolfpack’s offense off the field, and control the pace of the game.

Try and Beat ‘Em Early
While I don’t think the Bears need to resort to too many gimmicky plays to get some points on offense, that doesn’t mean I don’t think the Bears shouldn’t refrain from giving the Nevada defense a number of different looks on offense in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle.

Breaking open a big lead early on is huge in road games. It sucks the life out of the crowd and helps the visiting team settle into a rhythm. And added benefit against the Wolfpack however, is that it forces their offense to become a tiny bit more one-dimensional, in terms of hoping to get some points on the board.

Consider this: In all the games that Nevada lost last year (to Notre Dame, Colorado State, Missouri, and Boise St.) the Wolfpack have trailed at half time. While the Wolfpack rarely wilted completely and stayed competitive, they only came back to win after giving up a half time lead once last season, a 35-32 win over Utah State. In short, it helps to be able to put them in catch up mode.

So I’d hope to see some plays intended to try and go for the jugular early on, before eventually settling into an offensive rhythm. It could just be the difference.

Outlook
I do think the Bears can pull this one out. The biggest question will be whether we can slow down the Nevada attack, and secondly, it will be an issue of being able to run the football on a scrappy, but still outmanned defense.

Don’t get me wrong though, my palms are already sweating a bit just thinking about it. If the Bears can keep the Wolfpack under 30 points (Nevada is 0-8 the past three seasons when doing so), I think we’ve got this one in the bag. Their defense simply hasn't shown the ability to keep up. I actually think that number will have to be in the low 20s given the questions surrounding our offensive line, but you get the point.

Prediction
Cal 28 Nevada 24