Keys to the Game: Arizona 2010

"Oh sunshine. How I fear thee."

The more I reflect on last week’s performance and consider the team as a whole going into this week, I am more ready concede that last week’s game has the opportunity to stand on its own. I won’t say that it was a “fluke,” but I’m less consumed with drawing far-reaching extrapolations about the Nevada game and what it means for the season. The team was outcoached and underprepared, which led to them being outplayed that week. Plain and simple.

However, even before the loss to Nevada, I had anticipated that Cal’s game would be a likely loss, though I did think it might have been much closer had Cal rolled Nevada. Regardless, I thought Cal would have to play absolute lights out to stand a solid chance to stage an upset, and given the recent performances by both teams (Arizona in particular), it hasn’t done much to shake my initial prediction.

Can the Bears stage an upset? Absolutely. But they’ll have to be nearly flawless in gameplan and execution to take down a team that’s playing nearly as well as any team in the nation at this point in the season.

Here’s What You Need to Know
There were a number of question marks surrounding this Arizona coming into this season. Both offensive and defensive coordinators left, and the Wildcats were suffering some big losses, particularly losing their entire starting linebacking corps. Still, many projected the Wildcats to be as good as last year’s 8-5 squad.

Turns out the Wildcats might be better. A whole lot better. Arizona has looked polished and confident in its last three performances, thumping Toledo and Citadel while scraping out a character-building upset of number nine ranked Iowa last week.

Offensively, the whole system gels because of junior QB Nick Foles who is about as accurate as it gets, and puts up some gaudy numbers in ‘Zona’s passing offense. Add on a talented receiving corps, and a solid downhill runner in Nic Grigsby, and Arizona can put up points with the best of them.

The offense works from two different looks: the singleback set, with four wide receivers spread out wide, and the two TE pro formation that runs the rushing attack with the occasional passes (mostly to the TEs). Both formations either get the ball off quickly to a WR or allow the line to pull and trap for some pretty gaping holes for their backs to run through. Both sets spell can gain yardage and fast.

Defensively, I’ve been very impressed with how well Arizona has been playing. They’ve surpassed my expectations so far, and it all starts up front with one of the better defensive lines in the conference. Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed form the best defensive end duo in the conference, and Arizona’s defensive tackles have been nearly as solid. While the linebacking corps is less experienced, I think they’re actually faster than last year’s squad, and Arizona’s secondary has given up just 134 yards through the air per game.


Basically, the Wildcats are playing very well right now. And the game is at Tucson. At night. Blah.

No Hesitation on Defense
I know, I know. We got burned against Nevada because we were likely too aggressive. We bit hard, and we bit often on the zone read. Yes.

With that said, I don’t think the Bears should really take a wait and react approach to the Wildcats offense. That’d likely get them shredded. After our win over Arizona last year, I distinctly remember the difference in our defense being its aggressive play on the field. The Bears didn’t give up the short yardage plays, and despite getting burned on a few occasions, allowed their pressure and disciplined run defense to disrupt Arizona’s offense.

If they can do the same this year, I think this game becomes a whole heck of a lot closer than people might think.

To be clear though, I’m not talking about sending seven rushers on each down. Arizona gets the ball out so quickly, that sacking Foles is nearly impossible to do. While pressuring Foles should be a priority, it’s also about jamming receivers. It can also be mixing in zone blitzes so that Foles has to think twice or three times about where he’s going. Variety in pressure can lead to disruption, which might be the only plan to stop Arizona’s attack.

The defense can’t play scared. They have to get the last play (which might still have been one big yardage) out their heads and be ready to stick to an aggressive and disciplined gameplan.

Running Game Must Gain Traction
Let’s be clear here. Arizona is going to stack the box. They have a solid run defense. The best in the conference in fact. They’re going to dare Riley to beat them through the air. And the passing game will have to show some semblance of a consistent threat.

Ok, that’s been covered.

But listen, the Bears will not have a chance at winning this game if they can’t form a rushing attack. While it might seem like a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg-first quandary, if the Bears can’t get a solid push off the line to open up running lanes for Vereen, there will be no passing windows for Riley. Creating balance with a rushing attack just does so much against an aggressive defense like Arizona’s.

Says Cal’s offensive line coach Steve Marshall,

“Our running game has got to be a staple. It always has to be part of what we do, because it creates the play action and those types of things. As long as we’re running the ball effectively, we’ll always have a chance to make plays-not only in the run game, but in the pass game.”

See? He agrees too. That has to count for something.

And this effort won’t be completely on the offensive line as well. While I haven’t been thrilled with Cal’s run blocking, I do agree in that it has improved. Slowly. But I have been disappointed with the blocking whiffs on the tight ends and backs. You’ve gotta cut that crap out. Seriously. It’s like, really important.

Prediction
I’m not feeling very well, so I’m going to cut the keys a bit short this time around, but nearly suffice to say, the Bears will have to attack, stay disciplined and patient. Here’s hoping they’re ready to attack after last week’s performance.

My heart hopes the Bears pull this one out, but they certainly have the odds stacked against them Saturday night. But hey, I felt the same way last year, and we all know how that turned out.

Arizona 27 Cal 17