Questioning Jeff Tedford's Quarterback Decisions

Just hours after the Bears played their final game of the season, Jeff Tedford was questioned about the impending quarterback competition. Tedford unequivocally stated that the quarterback competition was wide open, with all six candidates getting a shot. However, I get the sense that a lot of Cal fans are less than convinced that Tedford will give each quarterback will have a fair shot, favoring experience and familiarity over potential and talent. Moreover, some might cynically assume that whoever Tedford gives the starting nod to will ultimately end up being the incorrect choice.

To some extent, it’s hard to blame them. Cal is coming off its worst season in close a decade, and the quarterback play is much to blame. The Bears’ passing offense hit its nadir as it was ranked 9th in the conference this past season, averaging just 174.8 passing yards per game. Much of it course was due to senior Kevin Riley’s season ending injury at OSU, but Riley had only been averaging 174 yards per game prior to his injury, though he was completing 60 percent of his passes and had a solid TD: INT ratio (13:6).

So it’s not without too much surprise that some Cal fans are already tossing their hands in the air, already bent on the notion that Tedford will stubbornly stick with some pre-conceived notions as to who should be behind center come fall, and end up choosing incorrectly.

But in taking a closer look at each quarterback competition every fall since Tedford has been the head coach, it’s hard to find a lot of fault with his decisions as to who would take the starting snaps in each opener. I would actually argue that thus far, Tedford has always made the correct decision in naming the starter.

Of course, how he has handled quarterback play throughout the season is a separate conversation altogether. Another case can be made as to quarterback development as a whole, or lackthereof. But when it comes to going with the right man for the job to start each season, it’s a stretch to really knock any of the previous choices.

Let’s take a look.


2002
Despite Kyle Boller’s eratic play in his previous seasons, this was a bit of a nobrainer. The senior quarterback Boller was the most physically gifted and easily the most experienced of the candidates.

It’s hard to imagine Tedford handing the reigns over to sophomore Reggie Robertson who had played in a few games, including two starts as a freshman, but still paled in comparison to Boller in terms of experience and physical tools. Even more could be said about the idea of starting freshman Richard Schwartz. It simply wasn’t happening.

It was an easy decision that reaped great rewards. Boller had one of the best single seasons in Cal history, throwing for 2,815 yards, and 28 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions. The Bears turned out their first winning season since 1996, and Boller ended up becoming a second-team All Pac-10 selection and a first round draft pick.

2003
There was a bit of a question as to who would be the starter after Boller’s departure. In one of the more interesting fall camps, it really boiled down to a decision between Reggie Robertson (Boller’s backup the previous season), and a virtual unknown in JC transfer Aaron Rodgers who apparently had all the tools, but had to make the jump to playing at the Division 1 level.

It was unlikely that either freshman Steve Levy or Cary Dove would outcompete either Robertson or Boller.

In the end, Tedford went with Robertson who would show to be efficient and competent enough to lead the Bears’ offense until Rodgers was ready to take over midseason. Rodgers simply didn’t have enough to time take in all of Tedford’s offense within a span of just a few months, but it was clear to everyone within the program that Rodgers was the future.

While Robertson performed admirably (despite the Bears jumping out to just a 1-3 record), it’s hard to imagine that Rodgers would have done much better had they rushed him into the job. Upon taking over Rodgers led the Bears to a 7-3 record, including a bowl win over Virginia Tech in the Insight Bowl. I suppose one could argue that Rodgers should have been the starter from the getgo, but I still maintain that it was in Rodgers’ and the team’s best interest to give him the added practice time.

2004
After Rodgers’ fantastic first year as the starter, Rodgers was poised for big things. Little decision here. Rodgers would be the starter, Robertson would be the veteran backup, with Steve Levy ready to jump in if absolutely necessary. The Bears’ coaching staff were unlikely to burn the redshirt of highly touted true freshman Nate Longshore.

The rest was history. Rodgers would have a Heisman candidate type of season while leading the Bears to a 11-2 record and play his way into the first round of the NFL draft. Epic.



2005
After Rodgers’ early departure to the NFL, Tedford was again tasked with the difficult assignment of picking an NFL caliber quarterback’s successor.

The job would ultimately go to redshirt freshman Nate Longshore, despite the arrival of highly-touted JC transfer Joe Ayoob.

Despite the temptation to go with someone nicknamed “the White Michael Vick,” Tedford absolutely made the right decision here. Of course, it’s all in hindsight, but Longshore had an understandable up and down performance in the season opener against Sacramento State, going 8 for 11 for 131 yards, a TD and an INT. Not mind blowing numbers, but they sure looked amazing after Longshore went down with a season-ending injury midway through the second quarter and Ayoob showcased 10 straight incompletions in Cal debut.

Third string Steve Levy would finally get his most significant playing time, throwing two TD passes. Levy looked good enough that he actually had his parents get season tickets thinking that he would be the new starter, only to see Ayoob struggle as a starter for much of the season.

Levy would finish out the season, with efficient, but nonetheless legendary performances against Stanford and BYU.

In hindsight, it’s difficult to say given how small the sample size of Longshore’s playing time this season, but it’s hard to imagine it would have been much worse that Joe Ayoob’s. Even then, Tedford seemed to know that a redshirt freshman Longshore would ultimately end up being the superior quarterback over both Levy and Ayoob. Correct decision here.



2006
After the quarterback debacle that was 2005, Tedford had to start at square one again. On one hand you had Nate Longshore who showed promise in limited playing time, but was coming off a fractured fibula. Joe Ayoob had been mentally beaten so much that he was told by Tedford himself to strongly consider options elsewhere as he would likely begin spring camp as at best, the third-string quarterback. Steve Levy had heroic performances in his two games as a starter, but was still limited in over quarterback prowess and tools.

Tedford again decided with Longshore, who ended up coming as close to any Cal QB has in matching Aaron Rodgers’ excellence in Longshore’s 2006 season. Longshore earned second-team All Pac-10 honors, ending up second in the conference in TDs (24), passing efficiency (141.6), and became just the second QB in school history to throw for 3,000 yards in single season. The Bears finished 10-3 with a share of the Pac-10 title, their first since 1975.

Another season, and most certainly the right call.

2007
Longshore began the season as the established starting quarterback. Steve Levy and Joe Ayoob had graduated, with the only other options being redshirt freshman Kevin Riley and redshirt sophomore Kyle Reed.

Even when deciding upon backups, Tedford appeared to make the right decision in deciding upon Riley over Reed. For all of Riley’s inconsistencies, he would still go on to have a solid career with the Bears, while Reed who subsequently transferred after losing out on the backup job, and struggled to make an impact in the WAC as San Jose State’s starting QB.

Most fans will remember criticizing Tedford after stubbornly sticking with Longshore over Riley when it was evident that Longshore was hobbled after his high ankle sprain, but remember this discussion applies to the decisions with starting QBs in the fall. In this regard, it was an easy deision.

2008
In the most heated quarterback competition yet, Tedford had to decide between Longshore and Riley. Here’s what I wrote about the competition back in 2008.

“In one corner you had Nate Longshore, the veteran quarterback who after seeing great success in his first full year as a starter, entered last season as the top rated junior quarterback and led his team to a 5-0 start and a #2 national ranking. Then after "catching a break" at the end of the Oregon, Longshore became the scapegoat for his team's 2-6 finish for his erratic play in the 4th quarter and inability to perform in the clutch on three game-ending drives.

In the other corner, you had Kevin Riley, the now redshirt—oops I mean blueshirt Sophomore who has shown Cal fans a remarkable ability to make amazing plays in both good and bad ways. What he's lacked in experience, he's delivered in better mobility and a competitive fire that had many Cal fans, and players, believing in him by the end of the season. Helping to erase the boneheaded play at the end of the Oregon State game, Riley shined in his appearance at Armed Forces Bowl, leaving many to proclaim Riley nothing short of the second coming of another great Cal quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.”

Dramatic, eh? Tedford went with the younger Riley, while maintaining both would see playing time in the season opener against Michigan State. Tedford appeared to be a genius in his appointment of Riley as the starter, as Riley completed 202 passing yards and 2 TDs, while Longshore threw two interceptions in both his drives, including one returned for a touchdown.

Both would struggle and shine in moments throughout the season however, with a quarterback carousel that appeared to be beneficial for neither player really. Yet, as evidenced based purely by confidence and performance in the season opener, I still believe Tedford made the right decision to initially go with Riley. Despite being inexperienced, Riley appeared to make better decisions than Longshore in the early going of the season, and Longshore seemed to press a bit too much in an effort to turn his season around.

The jumping between Longshore and Riley during the season is a different matter altogether, but I do think the initial decision was the correct one.

2009
Again, Tedford claimed that the quarterback competition was open, but was named the starter a week before the season opener. It wasn’t much of a surprise to anyone, as then redshirt sophomore Brock Mansion appeared to be too erratic in practice, while redshirt freshman Beau Sweeney lacked the necessary experience to run Tedford’s offense.

Riley had a career day in the opener, throwing for 298 yards and 4 TDs against an outmatched Maryland team. While Riley would have an up and down junior season, he still threw for 2,850 yards and 18 TDs to 8 INTs.

Beau Sweeney who moved up to second string, showed little in his limited playing time against Oregon and Washington State, though displayed enough athleticism that indicated there might be something there down the line.

Brock Mansion was nowhere to be seen however, taking just a few snaps towards the end of the season.

Again, hard to fault Tedford with his decision in this one.

2010
Anyone who had you believing anyone else not named Kevin Riley was going to be the starter this season probably had the last name Mansion or Sweeney.

Tedford would be hardpressed not to go with a senior Kevin Riley, who had start in each of his previous three seasons. Tedford sung Riley’s praises, declaring him the starter at the beginning of fall camp, declaring that Riley was in store for great things.

Those great things never came, though Riley still did a better job than some of his worst criticisms might indicate. Fans crying out for anyone other than Riley in some of Cal’s losses, found themselves dumbfounded with the other options.

Brock Mansion struggled after taking over as the starter with Riley’s season ending in Corvallis. Mansion led his team to a 1-3 record, completing less than 49 percent of his passes, with just two TDs and five interceptions.

Beau Sweeney seemed even more of an enigma. After a scattered performance in garbage time in the season opener, Sweeney regressed in his accuracy during his practice, and eventually lost his starting job to Mansion midway through the season.

So as much as fans were crying out for another option than Riley, little did they know that Tedford really meant it when he said that “Riley gives us the best chance to win.” Oh how true he was.

Outlook
So look through the last nine years. I’m sure you can argue or ponder a “What if?” here or there, but again, it’s hard to make a strong case that Tedford was ever at fault with his previous starting QB decisions. Yes, he’s likely botched the development of some QBs, and could have handled some situations a bit better, but you have to hand it to the guy, he’s been right about every preseason QB decision thus far, and has usually been spot on with the depth chart as well.

Of course, I speak from a position of hindsight. People are valid in questioning Tedford’s decisions in the moment, especially in moments where the team struggles. But I guess my point is that Tedford has a better pulse of this team than any armchair quarterback coach who follows blogs or forums ever will, and has been pretty spot on in every assessment he’s made with the starting nods at the QB position.

He’s got a tough task coming up though, with a choice of six different quarterbacks for this upcoming season. While some might bemoan the idea of a certain QB position getting first team reps come spring or fall, all I’m saying is that for now, I’m giving Tedford the benefit of the doubt. I mean, thus far, he’s earned it.

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Washington Recap 2010

(AP)

In what has been a supremely disappointing season for Cal football, it seemed almost fitting that Cal’s season would abruptly come to an end in stunning heartbreak.

With Cal’s offense again struggling to put up points, and the defense again giving an inspired effort, the Bears saw their season dissolve right before their eyes on the final play of the game. Holding onto a 13-10 lead with just over four minutes to go, the Bears failed to pick up a first down, leaving the Huskies with the ball on their own 21 yard line.

Yet, the football gods would ensure the heavy rain would taste like piss for the Cal fans in attendance before the day was over. The Huskies drove down the field, with the Bears defense suddenly unable to stop Locker’s rushing attempts after shutting him down all afternoon. Washington drove the length of the field and looking at 2nd and goal at the one yard line. Each of Locker’s subsequent QB sneak attempts were then squashed by the Bears.

Washington coach Steve Sarkisian decided to go for the win on 4th and goal instead of electing to kick the game tying field goal to send the game into overtime. The Cal defense flapped their arms into the air, urging the crowd to lend their support. This would be the final play in Memorial Stadium before the renovations. This would be the stop that would give the Bears the win and send them to a 9th consecutive bowl game. This would be forever be known as “the Stop” and the play that would forever embody the notion of protecting “our house.”

But despite our attempts to rally behind our courageous defense, any Cal fan knew what was about to happen.

The Cal defense predicted a third consecutive sneak, and crashed the middle, only to watch in horror as Jake Locker handed the ball off to Chris Polk as he rumbled into the endzone as time expired. The game was over. The Huskies had won. Cal’s season was over.

And someone in the athletic department decided to blast “Chariots of Fire” while showing a video montage of Memorial Stadium as Washington players and fans celebrated.

Wow.

Might as well get to a couple of game notes, although it will take a few days for me to force this one down.


Offense Ineptitude
It’s really difficult for me to think back to a time when Cal’s offense was as consistently inept as it has been for the second half of this season, at least under Tedford. I mean, this Cal team had been characterized the past decade as being a high scoring offense, although most Cal fans will tell you how much of that stereotype has been slowly fading for the past several years.

The Bears offense has been averaging just over 10 points a game since their ASU game back in October. That’s terrible. In fact, even if you were to include defensive scores, that would still be the worst scoring offense in the nation. Out of 120 teams. Blah.

Again, the asshole in me wishes I could pin it on one player or coach, and though it seems tempting at times, I know it’s not true. That would be as simple as a personnel change, and boom, working offense.

But no. The Bears are facing a system malfunctioning at various levels, which makes it hard to pin it on any one aspect. The Cal players have been quoted in the past as saying that each player has taken turns making mistakes in their blowout losses. That was never more true than Saturday’s performance.

It wasn’t as if the Bears had difficulty moving the ball at times. Cal ran the ball pretty well generating 191 yards on the ground. Shane Vereen was his regular consistent self piling up 106 yards on 23 carries. Keenan Allen also ran well out of the wildcat, with 60 yards on 7 carries. Sofele also showed some nice shiftiness, bouncing it to the outside, though his carries were limited.

But it seemed like every single time the Bears got something going, they shot themselves in the foot. The Bears were flagged 7 times for 74 yards, with multiple false start penalties by the offensive line. It wasn’t just the number of yellow flags, it was the times in the game they were being thrown that absolutely killed drives. It was as if the Bears were allergic to the red zone. Every time they got close, they just sneezed themselves backwards with some type of missed blocking assignment or penalty.

It’s so disheartening to see, because so much of the identity that characterized Tedford’s early teams is missing. The discipline, the focus on execution, the drive, all appeared to be absent for most of the game on Saturday. That’s not to say the players didn’t try out there, but whether it’s focus or the right level of coaching, whatever it is, it was nowhere to be seen.

Final Note on Mansion
At this point, I’m pretty sure I’ve seen all there is to see with Brock Mansion. I feel the sample size is large enough with 4 starts including one road game and three at home (and at OSU game where he played a majority of the game). He’s played against very good defenses, and poor ones. He’s had a full month as the starter, and I’m just not seeing it with him.

I really have nothing bad to say about Brock Mansion as a student athlete. By all accounts, he’s an upstanding individual, a total team player, and works his tail off on and off the field.

Yet, if you take in what you’ve seen over the last month, how can you really put your confidence in him as next year’s starting quarterback?

Mansion was just 12 for 22 for 92 yards and an interception. Most of his completions came on quick screens and swing passed that went for little no yardage, and I really saw only two passes in the game I was impressed with. Mansion can deliver beautiful passes when he sets his feet, but he doesn’t have the field vision nor the pocket awareness at this point to set himself up for success.

He again continues to underthrow his receivers, with Washington’s Quinton Richardson being the lucky recipient of this week’s Mansion give-away.

Through the season, Mansion has completed just 48.9 percent of his passes with 2 TDs (one coming on a hook at lateral) and 5 interceptions. He’s averaging under 130 yards per game passing, and his 85.5 passer rating wouldn’t put in him the Top 100 in the nation in that category. I understand Mansion wasn’t thrown in the most ideal circumstances, but as a redshirt junior, it’s hard to justify such numbers.

Now final note, it’s difficult as to where to place the blame. It’s clearly not all on Brock, as much of it is on his coaches’ inability to both develop and prepare him to be the starter. However, very few other sports defend the player as much as football does to quarterbacks. If a basketball player can’t hit wide open outside jumpers, very rarely do we see ourselves screaming at the head coach for his inability to develop his young talent. When a player doesn’t appear to have it, sometimes they just don’t.

Special Teams Continues Regression
I continue to long for days when special teams no longer is an issue with this team. Unlikely, but still, I long.

The Bears seem unable to put a complete game together on special teams. If it isn’t one thing, it’s another.

On a career day from Giorgio Tavecchio, the Italian Stallion booted a career long 53 yard field goal to give the Bears a 3-0 lead at halftime. He would later add a 47 yarder that Cal fans hoped would give them the lead for good.

Yet, it was Cal’s kickoff return team that would be its undoing. Some very poor tackling gave the Huskies great field position for a drive that would end up with three points for the Huskies. There was also some very poor tackling on the opening kickoff return, and I think the only reason this isn’t a bigger story is because the Bears rarely kicked off on Saturday.

Cal’s special teams appeared to have made such a turnaround at the beginning of the season, although it will be its regression over the course of the season and inconsistency that will leave Cal fans continuing to be restless.

Defense: All for Naught
While the Cal defense has had its share of headshaking inconsistency (Nevada, USC, OSU, Stanford), the season will likely be remembered moreso as the one in which brilliant defensive efforts were wasted by offensive mediocrity (Arizona, Oregon, and Washington).

It really is shame that season ends the way it did, particularly for some of the senior defensive players who have churned out some very solid careers, and fantastic senior seasons.

Mike Mohamed put out another double digit tackle performance with 14 on the day, including a sack and a forced fumble that led to Cameron Jordan’s 20 yard scoop and score. Jordan also recorded 6 tackles including two for a loss.

Chris Conte, who has been an absolute revelation at safety also had 7 tackles as he ended his up and down career at Cal on an upnote. Darian Hagan had two tackles, and Derrick Hill had just one, but both played their respective positions pretty well.

Fortunately, the Bears also saw some nice performances from the defensive underclassmen, with Mychal Kendricks having a very nice game with 8 tackles, including 3 TFLs and 2 sacks. He showed some nice speed off the edge on the sack on Washington's 3rd and 5. He also stopped the Husky receiver from getting a first down on the previous drive. He will be one of the senior leaders who will have to step up next year and lead Cal’s linebacking corps.

DJ Holt also had six tackles and a fumble recovery. Holt is one of the defense’s most improved players, and has really come into his own as a very solid inside linebacker.

Marc Anthony also recorded his second career interception, and will likely be back as the starter at the CB position.

Keenan Allen Excels
As I’ve watched this season, I continue to tell myself, “Ahh, this is what a 5 star recruit will do for you.”

Allen continues to shine in nearly every role he’s put in. Whether it’s throwing, running the ball on reverses or in the wildcat, catching the ball, the guy’s a natural athlete. Now that he’s healthy, I do appreciate the offense’s efforts to get him more touches.

Allen accounted for 106 yards of total offense. The guy has 496 receiving yards on the season, the most by a true freshman since Desean Jackson’s 2005 campaign. If Cal’s passing game can show a pulse next season, this guy will have a spectacular year next year.

Final note: Please put the bubble screen away. For every nice gain, it's sniffed out at least 3 other times. And it’s going to get Allen killed. Please?

Outlook
Woher kommen wir Wer sind wir Wohin gehen wir

(Where Do We Come From? What Are We? Where Are We Going?)

Jeff Tedford may want to stare at Gauguin’s painting for a while as he asks himself these questions. I can tell you that this season hurts as much as any in quite some time. It’s a bitter end to a bitter season.

The football program has hit its lowest point since Tedford had taken over a moribund program, but that’s not to say it’s far from saving. Are we likely at least a season away from competing for a conference title? Probably, but it really depends on our ability to find a quarterback, because without one, we’re likely stuck in mediocrity (at best) for the next few seasons.

However, the evaluation will need to be honest and objective at every position, not just QB. The Bears have shown some great things this year. But with the first ever losing season under Tedford, it’s about as good of a time as any to shake things up.

I’m disappointed as any to have this be the last game of the season, but I’m hoping in the long run, we’ll look back at these moments and say it was for the best.

Thank you to the team, both players and coaches for your efforts this season. Despite our frustrations, I hope I speak for many of the Cal faithful when we say are continually appreciative and committed to the California Golden Bears.

Go Bears!

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Keys to the Game: Washington 2010

"We are going to win that game and we are going to go to a bowl game." – Sean Cattouse

The Bears find themselves in unfamiliar territory. For the first time in Jeff Tedford’s tenure at Cal, the Bears enter their final game of the regular season with their post season plans in doubt. The Bears have typically locked up bowl eligibility by October, but find themselves needing to win their final game against Washington to become bowl eligible.

And in terms of prognostications, it’s just been a doozy of a year. For much of the year, most had backed themselves into the “Bears are good at home, bad on the road" argument. That thinking was obviously torn up during the Bears debacle of a Big Game last Saturday.

Let’s face it. The Bears have played like a mediocre team this year, with enough amazing and awful performances to leave you scratching your head. But for every inconsistency with this team, the Bears have been pretty consistent in one regard: They’ve beaten bad to mediocre teams, and have lost to good to great teams. And all but two contests have been close.

So where does that leave us for this Saturday? How the hell should I know? But if we were to make any guess based on this season, it’s that the Bears eek one out against a Washington squad that’s just about as enigmatic as we are.

Let’s get to a few keys.


Contain, Contain, Contain
The Bears have killed themselves this year (save for Oregon) with their inability to contain mobile quarterbacks in the pocket. The results have been disastrous, with the end result either being huge gains on the ground by the quarterback or connections with scrambling wide receivers as the quarterback bought time rolling out of the pocket.

Unfortunately for the Bears, they squared off against the most mobile quarterback they’ve faced so far. That’s quite a statement given some of the quarterbacks they’ve defended this year (Kaepernick, Thomas, Luck), but Locker might have legit 4.4 speed, not blah-blah-Terrelle-Pryor-4.3 nonsense.

The good news is that Locker can be slowed down. While he’s a threat to take it the distance on each carry, he can be held to moderate gains when defenses actually gameplan around him. In fact, I’d argue that Andrew Luck is probably the more dangerous running threat of the two quarterbacks at this point. On the season, Locker is averaging just 3.28 yards per carry, despite getting on average 9 running plays a game.

The bigger issue will be whether they can keep Locker in the pocket so that he doesn’t buy time with his feet. The Huskies feature a dangerous wide receiver corps of Jermaine Kearse, Devin Aguilar, and D’Andre Goodwin. Kearse in particular has shown a knack for finding soft spots in zones or shaking his defender when Locker is on the move. Nearly every big throw I’ve seen Locker made has come on some kind of play action or roll out. Seriously, just look up his highlight footage and from 2009, and you’ll see what I mean.

I’d refrain from saying that the Bears need to commit a defender to spy on Locker, but the contain packages on defense need a very close look this week. Locker will roll out, and unless they’re committing a defensive end or linebacker to closing the gap on Locker, he’s going to hurt the Bears big time.

Get it going on the ground
To say the Bears have struggled on offense this season would be a major understatement. The Bears teeter in the bottom half of the conference in scoring and total offense, and have averaged just 13.5 points per game since rolling up 50 against ASU back in Oregon State. Much of this has to do with the deficiencies in the passing game, with Brock Mansion failing to develop any level of passing rhythm with his receivers.

The one hope the Bears have in staging any semblance of an offensive attack is that for all of the Bears offensive woes, the Huskies have matched in terms of their own defensive inconsistencies. The Huskies give up 412 yards per game (8th in conference), 33.3 ppg (9th in conference) and have been highly susceptible to giving up big yardage on the ground, yielding 208 ypg (9th in conference).

In fact, until Washington’s defensive shutdown of UCLA last week (24-7), the Huskies hadn’t held an opponent to fewer than 20 points all season. The difference? The lack of a real threat at quarterback, with UCLA’s Richard Brehaut proving ineffective before a concussion opened the door for a miserable day for the Bruins’ 3rd and 4th string quarterbacks.

Cal fans can’t be too heartened with that given the Bears’ struggles at quarterback. However, if the Bears can win the battle upfront and open up some running lanes for Shane Vereen, there’s no reason the Bears shouldn’t be able to keep Locker on the sidelines and give the Bears the goahead lead down the stretch.

How much is left in the tank?
All week long, the team has been reiterating that it’s not a matter of heart, it’s a matter of execution. Most of me agrees with the statement. I feel the Bears have shown up ready to play, though their focus and execution has been undisciplined and poor in many cases.

I have little doubt the Bears will try and get themselves ready. After all, a lot is on the line, for reasons I’ve already discussed. But the Bears have had one hell of a draining season. From the blowouts, to losing their starting quarterback for the season, to giving up the axe in an embarrassing fashion, there’s no way this season hasn’t worn on everyone on the team, from the players to the coaches.

You think we fans have it rough? We have the comfort of being able to return to our lives, whether it’s school or work during the course of the week. For this team, their lives center around this game and the components necessary to ensure its success.

So it’s not whether I think the Bears will try out there, it’s whether the Bears have anything left to give. Here’s hoping they can dig deep just one last time to pull out the win in front of what’s anticipated to be a depleted home crowd full of fans who have gone home for the holidays, or who have simply decided to go home.

"This is what this week's about. All the lifting, running and everything we've done since last January comes down to this week."
-Head Coach Jeff Tedford

Prediction
Cal 27
Washington 20
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Big Game Recap 2010

Just as the Bears typically need a 24 hour off period after games to recover, so does this blogger after what has been a hell of season.

While it may not have felt like, there’s a large part of me that feels like Saturday’s loss to Stanford in the Big Game was the lowpoint of Jeff Tedford’s tenure at Cal. And it wasn’t necessarily because the Bears lost. Let’s face it—Stanford is a very good team this year. That offensive line is plain nasty and while Andrew Luck is not the next coming of Jesus himself (despite what media pundit might constantly blather), the guy could be playing on Sunday. Now, in fact if he wanted to.

So losing to the number six squad in the nation isn’t the issue. It’s the way the Bears lost, embarrassingly in front of a home crowd to the tune of 48-14. The game was over before halftime when a series of costly mistakes on both sides of the ball made it nearly impossible for the Bears to bounce back. And for all the good things the Bears have done this year, bouncing back from early deficits have not been one of them.

The loss was one of the worst losses in Big Game history, and one of the worst drubbings the Bears have ever experienced under Tedford, at home no less. Given the disturbing number of blowouts the Bears have been on the losing effort of in recent years, the Big Game loss on Saturday demonstratively exclaimed that whatever mojo Tedford had left in him is now gone. Any success the Bears see moving forward will be the result of a new maturation as a headcoach after some serious rethinking of philosophy and personnel.

In the same way Memorial Stadium will undergo physical renovations, the Bears will have to take a hard look at every facet of this team if they are to regain any semblance of the consistent success they achieved in Tedford’s early years. Like many have stated, it’s one thing to rebuild a program. It’s another to maintain that success. Often, the latter effort requires a different focus and strategy.

Let’s get to some of the specifics from the day.


Offensive Continues to be Offensive
I’m going to start with the offense despite the fact the Bears gave up 45 answered points on defense. Why? Underline the term “unanswered.”

The Bears were hurt defensively by some key mistakes, injuries in the backfield, and the fact that Stanford was a nightmarish matchup for the Bears. More on that later. But I’ve been saying this for a while now, and I’m sure few will disagree: this offense is killing the Bears.

I wish in some twisted way that I could pin it all on Brock Mansion’s deficiencies. That’d be the easy way out. But the Bears’ passing offense was still 9th in the conference, even when Kevin Riley was healthy. I’m sure you could take a larger look at the general quarterback questions as a whole in the program, but that’s a separate matter.

The Bears were unable to sustain drives. It was the combination of poor execution, and effects of a constant proverbial gun turret to their own feet. You could get a sense of the day when the Bears started off their first drive, with two fumbled snaps in the first 3 plays, with the second turned over in Cal territory.

After the Bears defense held Stanford to just a field goal, they marched down the field on the ensuing drive and looked like they were regaining composure. Yet, in field goal range to tie up the score, Mansion woefully underthrows the ball doing a backfoot jump ball as he is flushed out of the pocket. Instead of landing in wide open Alex Lagemann’s, the ball is picked off by Stanford’s Richard Sherman.

Brutal.

The day would essentially follow suit, with penalties (how do you get flagged for illegal formation in the backfield on back to back drives?) negating first down conversions, another turnover, and poor execution. The Bears found themselves in a hole early on, and in the worst possible situation: having to throw in order to catch up.

More on Mansion
The more I see of Mansion, the more it becomes clear as to what we might have in him as a QB. First off, Mansion appears to have all the physical tools. The guy’s got a rocket arm, and when he sets his feet and begins to catch a rhythm, he can fire some nice balls with some zip. A lot of his shorter routes on slants, curls, and outs looked pretty decent. They were the types of passes I hope the Bears would continue to emphasize heading into the game.

However, when flushed out of the pocket, Mansion makes some absolutely head scratching decisions. He runs when he should check down or throw the ball away. He forces passes when he should be running. But the most gutwrenching moments were his decisions to lob balls off of his backfoot in an effort to force throws. I can understand the habit of throwing off one’s backfoot when pressured in the pocket, but quarterbacks have been trained since peewee to step forward into any throw when on the run. It seemed as if he was afraid of contact on both interceptions, which led to his first pick which involved him nearly jumping on his pass, and his second interception when he threw off his backfoot and across his body.

You just can’t do that.

Perhaps some of it will come with experience. The game has yet to fully slow down for him. Still, Mansion appears to be inaccurate enough with some of throws that you really wonder how much he will improve over the remainder of college career. I don’t know. But his current stat line of completing 48% of his passes for 4 interceptions and 2 TDs (both of which came against second team secondaries) are from appetizing.

O-Line Inconsistency
Despite his poor passing decisions on the run, I thought Mansion showed some nice mobility in the pocket. He was sacked just once on the day (which he should have picked up pre-snap by the way), but his offensive line didn’t do him many favors as that pocket collapsed fairly quickly.

I still think it was better than some offensive line performances I’ve seen this season, so I do think they have the right personnel on the field. But it was still troubling to see Guarnero get bull rushed a bit on a few plays. It was hard to tell who the accompanying guard who gave up penetration was on a few plays, but still no bueno.

I really do think the line was blocked relatively when in Cal’s rushing attack, but the Bears were doomed after such an early deficit that they had to get away from the run so quickly in the game. There was no chance.

Defense Holds…Then Doesn’t
The first drive and a half was great for the Bears defense. After being forced to defend a short field, they held the Cardinal to a field goal. On Stanford’s ensuing drive backed up in their own territory, the Bears appeared to have again forced Stanford to another three and out.

And then all hell broke loose.

Mychal Kendricks was called for offsides, giving Stanford a first down. Two plays later, Andrew Luck took off running for a 58 yard gain, embarrassing Sean Cattouse with a forearm shiver in the process. Quick note about that play.

I hate when defenders choose to go for a knockout hit rather than wrapping up. Absolutely hate it. It’s what made Thomas DeCoud such a good safety, despite his ability to lay the lumber. Now, Cattouse himself admitted after the game he hesitated between the two decisions which led to his embarrassment, but still, it’s maddening to see.

The rest of the game was essentially one Andrew Luck forearm shiver after another. The guy was lights out, completing 16 of 20 passes 235 yards and 2 scores. While the media is rocking the Andrew Luck hardon right now, I was most impressed with Stanford’s offensive line.

That is one hell of an offensive line.

They were quick off the ball, manhandling defenders, and made the personnel mismatch obvious. The Cardinal would often bring in a fullback, a sixth offensive lineman, and a tight end into blocking formations, which outmanned Cal’s defense. The Bears have a speedy and athletic defense, but large and physical don’t necessarily best describe them. There’s little Mike Mohamed can do when he has Owen Marecic and a backup tackle eliminating him from the picture.

Stanford knew this, and constantly ran misdirection running plays with a fullback or lineman paving the way.

The Bears were doomed from the getgo.

Secondary’s Worst Showing All Year
The absence of Darian Hagan and Marc Anthony really hurt the Bears. I do think Steve Williams is going to be a quality corner for the Bears, and could be all conference when he’s done at Cal. But he still isn’t physically mature enough to consistently compete with larger physical corners.

And Bryant Nnabuife is an athletic nickel back, who can provide nice run support on third downs. But he simply isn’t a very good cover corner at the collegiate level. The Cardinal knew that and took full advantage.

Now with that said, would Hagan and Anthony’s presence changed the outcome? Hell no. But it might have helped stall an extra drive or two.

No Anger Assist
Anger had a very strong day punting the ball, averaging 54 yards per punt, and landing all three inside the 20. The big punt return the Bears gave up (again) though, was not a matter of outkicking the coverage really. That was just a bad job of wrapping up by our gunners. They simply whiffed on those tackles.

I can only imagine Anger’s response on those punts.

“Boom goes the dynamite! Yeah! Another to the 10! There we go—god dammit…”

Keenan Allen for Quarterback!
Joking. But seriously, his play in which he received the snap out of the Wildcat, rolled right, eluded three defenders on his way back to the middle of the field before firing a bullet to Marvin Jones in the endzone was impressive. One of the best QB plays all year actually.

I’m not suggesting Allen take reps at QB. It’s pretty inane actually. But, I’m guessing we can be assured we may see Allen take a few more snaps at Wildcat with the option of passing a bit more often. Well, hoping at least.

Outlook
It’s come down to one game to determine the Bears’ post season plans. I know a part of me was so hating Cal football fandom, that I was partially hoping the Bears would not make a bowl, so there would be an end to this pain.

But c’mon now, the Bears need to make a bowl. For so many reasons. But one of the biggest being the added practice. Based on Saturday’s performance, the Bears need a lot of it.

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A Play In the Life of Andrew Luck

Andrew Luck’s inner monologue during a typical snap in the 2010 Big Game:

Ready eight, ready eight! Stack! (center hikes the ball)

Man, this is so much fun. Oh shit, Whalen’s open! I’ll get him later.

I wonder where I’ll end up in April? Buffalo? San Francisco? Carolina? I hear that Clausen kid is a real douche.

Ooh, rush coming from the blindside, time to step up. (takes a step forward) Aah, I’ve got another couple of minutes before I actually have to let go of this thing. (looks at football) I really do like throwing these. But later, much later.

Is that a freaking hangnail? (examines hand) Ahh, nevermind, it’s just some artificial grass. (blows off dust). Now so fresh and so clean, clean!

By the way, who’s that covering Whalen again? Number 15? Holla!

Geez, now my shoelace is untied. (Kneels, tucks the football underneath his arm while tying his cleets)
Over, under, and around the tree!

Alright, ready to go. Where'd Whalen go? Hmm, you know what? f*** this, I’m going to run this shit. (takes off) Hey Cameron, see you next year on Sunday.

Geez, I can’t get the theme song of “Full House” out of my head these days. “Days go by…”

Here comes #11. I’m going to hurdle his ass if he comes low. Crap, he’s coming high. Andrew Chop! (shrugs off Sean Cattouse). Oh man, you okay? Medic? (bends down to pat Cattouse on shoulder). Oh yeah, end zone.

(takes off again)

---------------------------------------------------------------------

[Blogger's Note:]

Sorry, trying to entertain myself after the debacle that was the 2010 Big Game. The above post was meant to entertain in these difficult times rather than mock.

Will have a full post later.
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Keys to the Game: Big Game 10

It's Big Game Week! As with most rivalries, the Big Game seems to take on increased meaning with each passing year, despite the Bears entering the game with a mediocre 5-5 record.

For the second year in a row, Cal enters the contest as an underdog to the Cardinal. Last year Stanford had come into the Big Game as the hottest team in the country, dominating both Oregon and USC in back to back weeks. This year, the story in the Bay is likely to be whether the Bears can derail Rose Bowl aspirations for 9-1 Stanford squad that has its best start in what seems like forever.

Stanford is the unquestionable number two team in the conference, and has a bit of an argument for the best one-loss team in the nation. Led by Heisman candidate and likely number one overall pick in next year's draft, quarterback Andrew Luck, the Cardinal offense has been stellar this year. The biggest difference in this year's Stanford team however, has been the improved defensive unit which has been energized by the shift to the 3-4 and some revelations at key defensive positions.

Needless to say, Tedford faces off against the best Stanford team that he has seen in his tenure as head coach for the Bears.

The key is how focused and motivated the Bears will show up for Saturday's contest. The Bears have been hot and cold all season, and defensively dominant squad at home, but are coming off a gut-wrenching near upset of top ranked Oregon.

Also, what will the coaching staff dial up in their gameplans? Tedford has seen his offense stall this season, and become nearly anemic at times with quarterback Brock Mansion making his third career start. How will they mask their deficiencies on offense without becoming gimmicky? Also, will Clancy Pendergast have something up his sleeve in his first attempt at defending a true pro style offense since the USC debacle?

I don't have the answers. But here are some thoughts:


Long, Sustained Drives
Last week, I maintained that the key to slowing down Oregon's offense was to hold onto the ball on offense for sustained periods of time. Rest your defense and keep the Oregon's offense off the field to keep yourself from falling into a huge point deficit.

This week, I think that's going to again be the key, but for slightly different reasons. Stanford's offense doesn't move at nearly the pace Oregon does, but is nearly as productive.

It's difficult to expect the Bears to string up 30+ points on what has proved to be a very solid defensive Cardinal squad. But if they can average a TD a quarter on longer drives while eating up clock, it will do wonders if the Bears can keep Stanford's offense to just one or two possessions a quarter.

Another benefit is that while Stanford has some defensive playmakers, they're not yet the deepest defensive team. Their linebacking corps is made up of two converted defensive ends and Owen Marecic who goes both ways (heh), playing offense and defense. After these three and Shane Skov, there isn't much else. If the Bears can keep Stanford's defense on the field, there's a much higher likelihood that they're able to take over, particularly at the line of scrimmage, late in the game.

I expect a fairly heavy dose of run. I'm not saying that the Bears go up the gut every play, but expect Vereen to pound the tackles, and a few more carries for Sofele, Jones, Allen, and Ross (if he's healthy). A lot of this will depend on the Bears offensive line and whether they can again win the line of scrimmage like they did last year.

If the Bears begin missing in their passing game and face a couple of 3rd and longs, it's going to be a long and tough day for the Bears.

Get the Bears in Space
The last time Stanford was at Memorial Stadium, we beat them on the edges with speed and took advantage of their overaggressiveness with some play action and reverses.

While the Stanford defense is still one of the better defensive teams in the conference, they still lack in speed overall.

I hope the Bears take advantage of this again by finding creative ways to get their playmakers in space, particularly off the edges. When I listed sustained drives as a key for success earlier, I did not equate that with being overly conservative. I'm hoping we see HB tosses with zone blocking, reverses, a few sweeps on the Wildcat, and flanker screens (only if there's better blocking).

Contain Luck
I was going to state that the biggest key in defending Luck was to find ways to rattle him by sending pressure and confusing him with different defensive looks. Luck, as fantastic as he is, has still shown that he is prone to being rattled.

However, this has more to do with what we have seen from this year's defensive team than in the ways Luck has progressed. The Bears need to keep Luck in the pocket.

First off, there's the fact that Luck is a fantastic runner. While he isn't Jake Locker-esque, he's an absolute threat when he tucks it and takes off. He's averaging over 8 yards a carry! and has hit paydirt three times this year.

But more importantly, Luck has shown uncanny ability to buy himself time in the pocket, and very strong accuracy when rolling out and throwing on the run. I'm essentially having nightmarish flashbacks of what Matt Barkley did to the Bears this past year.

I'm hoping the Bears keep what they've been doing the past few weeks with their 3-3-5 look. Let's face it, the Bears have found no answer at the second outside linebacker position opposite Mychal Kendricks. They've intelligently foregone that position and instead have brought in an extra safety to help with pass or run defense. It's also given the Bears an extra dimension of speed when defending mobile quarterbacks like Jeff Tuel and Darron Thomas. I'm not sure what they'll decide to do given the pro style offense that Stanford runs versus the spread offenses they've faced, but it will be interesting to see.

Outlook
It's tricky. My heart says the Bears shock a lot of people, defensively dominate the Cardinal while the Bears offense comes alive in Mansion's coming out party while the Cal offensive line again dominates in the trenches.

My head however, has a hard time reconciling how the Bears can possibly score enough to keep up with Stanford's offense. Their offense is too polished while ours simply isn't.

With that said, it's Big Game week. If there were ever a week for believing and going with your heart over logic, this is it. The Bears pounce and keep the Axe.

Prediction
Cal 23
Stanford 21
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Bears Bowl Projection

With just two games to go this season, the Bears’ bowl picture is clearing up a bit.

First and foremost, the Bears need to become bowl eligible, beating either Stanford or Washington in the next few weeks to tally up the necessary six wins for the season. That’s certainly no gimme, but definitely possible.

Now, provided that the Bears can become bowl eligible, the options are limited and surprisingly very beneficial for the Bears. Believe it or not, the competitive nature of the conference has made is so that the Bears are likely headed for the Holiday or Sun Bowl.

Yeah, I’m shocked too. My friend outlined it for me in the following chat we had over the weekend.

Friend:
believe it or not
but
i think we could actually go to the holiday bowl
osu may not be bowl eligible
asu, ucla, wsu also are not
usc is also out
we may finish ahead of arizona
uw is also pbb not going to be bowl eligible
that means only oregon and stanford are ahead of us

me: wtf??
lemme take a look at this (standings)


Friend: i think our worst case scenario is sun bowl, even if we lose to stanford
barring a series of unusual events
if stanford makes bcs
our worst case is pbb holiday
no joke
osu's loss today really puts them behind the 8-ball
and usc is ineligible

me: so our making holiday bowl depends on a loss to stanford, stanford winning out, and our beating washington?

Friend: well no
there are two ways of getting to the holiday

me: wait sorry

Friend: 1. stanford makes BCS
we are #4
behind AZ, stanford and OR
we go to holiday
2. we win out, and az loses out (oregon, plus rivalry against ASU)
then we are #3, stanford is #2 going to alamo
and we go to holiday

So there you have it. Uncle Ted over at ESPN also has us in the Holiday Bowl.

Confusing, I know. Who would have ever thought a 7-5 squad would make the Holiday Bowl?
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Oregon Recap 2010

Oh, to be a Cal fan.

Deep sigh.

There really is nothing like it. Cal football continues to surprise. Elate and Destroy. Tease and Crush. Yet we march forward. Obstinate, we continue to traverse the path to which end we do not know, but hope contains some solace from this wretchedness that we call college football.

We are the California Golden Bears.

The Bears nearly shocked the college football world on Saturday, losing by just two points to the top ranked Oregon Ducks by a score of 15-13. After many praised the Ducks speed offense which had averaged nearly 55 points a game, the Bears put on one of the best defensive performances I’ve ever seen from a Cal football team. Unfortunately, the Cal offense and special teams units would eventually take away from what could have been a historical night for the Bears.

Defense’s Got Nothing to Hang Their Head About
Again, you can’t say enough about how well the Cal defense played tonight. They did just about everything you can ask for out of a defense facing a top ranked offense.

The Bears pitched a defensive shutout in the first half and with the exception of the blown coverage on Jeff Maehl’s 29 yard TD catch after a very short field, held the Ducks out of the endzone. Again, this was against one of the most prolific offenses in college football in at least the last 10 years.

The Bears showed excellent discipline in their gap assignments and were flying to the ball. I think the defense had the best performance of the season in terms of shedding blocks and getting to the ball carrier.

Also, another encouraging aspect of the defense was that they were plain nasty at times. They laid into Darren Thomas on a number of occasions each time he became a runner or held on to the ball a bit too long. The Bears even forced two fumbles, although they failed to recover either. Thomas is one cool cat, but you have to wonder whether the hits did force him to think twice about keeping the ball.


Shoutouts to the Defensive MVPs Tonight
Mike Mohamed had one of his best games of the season with 14 tackles and a sack. The guy finally looks healthy, even with a cast on his hand.

Mychal Kendricks recorded 10 tackles, and 1.5 tackles for a loss. Kendricks has a good chance to end the season as one of the top players in this category.

Chris Conte and Trevor Guyton also continued to have strong performances with 8 and 7 tackles respectively. Conte’s going to be missed at the safety position next year. Guyton has a good shot of battling for one of the starting end positions next year with Owusu and Coleman.

Plus, kudos to Derrick Hill for impressively swatted the ball out of Thomas’ hand and recovered it for a much needed score. He didn’t record gaudy numbers, but he was a difference maker in the trenches.

Offense Continues to be Offensive
While the Bears defense did everything they could to help win the game, Cal’s offense was another matter. Other than the opening scoring drive (which was huge for forcing the Ducks to respect the Bears ability to move the ball, at least initially), the Bears could get very little else going.

Much of it was the Bears’ anemic passing game, which falls on a few heads.

Some of it is on the line. Although I will say that I thought they had one of the better games of the season. This was a very athletic Oregon defensive front seven, and Vereen still managed to go for over a 100, and the Mansion didn’t get sacked once.

Some of it was the playcalling. I didn’t think some of the playcalls set the offense up for much success. With the odds stacked against the Bears, and the Oregon defense crowding the box, I was hoping for the Bears to get a bit more aggressive and creative with their playcalling. Instead, we had the same formulaic plays to little success. Even trying to include Ross and Allen on some more sweeps for misdirection runs might have opened things up a little.

Also, the Bears wide receivers continued their troubling trend of dropping some passes. With Mansion struggling all night, the dropped passes became all the more painful.

Speaking of Mansion, this deserves its own section.

A Much More Difficult Week for Mansion
It was a tough week for Mansion. It’s hard to expect much when you’re making your first home start against the top team in the nation, but it’s hard to ever be pleased with a 10 for 28 passing night for just 65 yards.

Last week I lauded Mansion’s propensity to simply let the ball rip and throw without hesitation. This week however, this tendency really exposed his inability go through his progressions. You could see him lock down on his receivers multiple times, while telegraphing most of his passes. By the time he let the ball go, there were often two Oregon defenders closing in on his intended target.

This also hurt in that he missed on connecting with some open targets on the opposite side of the field of where he directed his passes. Mansion’s quarterback field vision simply isn’t very big right now, and it’s hurting the offense big time.

It didn’t help either that Mansion continued to struggle with his accuracy. Even when he made the right read or found an Oregon defender out of his position, he continued to sail or underthrow balls. A lot will come with increased repetitions with his receivers, but a lot of it will need to come with more composure in the pocket.

Final note on Mansion, Cal’s been pretty poor on selling the play action for a while not, but it’s gotten a lot worse with Mansion. Again, not piling on the guy, as it’s just his third game, but it’s something that needs to be addressed in practice this week.

Quick Note on Vereen
All in all, Vereen was his typical hard working self, but you’ve got to be extra concerned when your best offensive player fumbles in Cal territory to start the second half.

Vereen still managed 112 yards on 26 carries, and is just two yards short of breaking 1000 yards for the first time in his career. My friend pointed out that two of those yards were lost on his attempt to punch it in on 3rd and 2 for the go ahead score.

Ahh, that hurts.

On a semi-related note, I wonder why Sofele wasn’t given a single carry. I know the coaching staff is wary about giving the ball to Vereen as much as they did tonight.

Kicking Proves to be the Difference
Look, I’m not going to pile on Giorgio Tavecchio, so if that’s what you want to read, I’m sure there’s plenty of that floating around the web. Try the BearInsider Forums. They’re always a good source of venom and ranting.

There’s really no need other than to try and make oneself feel better, because trust me when I say that no player in that locker room feels more terrible right now than Tavecchio. For the second game this season, a missed field goal essentially cost the Bears heavily. On a 24 yard chip shot attempt from the left hash mark, Tavecchio mistimed his step and fluttered before knocking the ball through the uprights. He was flagged for his illegal motion however, and had to rekick the ball from 29 yards out. A 29 yard field goal to put the Bears up over the top ranked team? Any good old Cal fan will tell you how that’s going to turn out.

A missed field goal is usually no big deal when losing to the Ducks because of how big of a margin most teams usually lose by to them. But a 15-13 loss stings even more knowing that few teams are ever going to get that close that late in a game. You can’t shoot yourself in the foot like that and expect to win.

[Note: I think it's also important to note that you can't really say that a field goal would have won with the field goal. The Ducks were in field goal range on their last drive, so you never know how things would have turned out. I'm simply saying it would have put the Bears up, which would have been critical in terms of momentum.]

As for what this means moving forward, it beats me. It really is a situation where the Bears need to address what’s going on with Tavecchio or take a shot with another kicker. The inherent problem is that the coaching staff has been so sold on Tavecchio, that it’s unlikely that another viable option is on the team. So again, you’re stuck with addressing what to do with Tavecchio, but it’s fairly apparent right now that he’s not getting it done, regardless of how confident this staff might be with him. It’s a lose-lose situation.

I guess you could just try to gameplan for always going for it on fourth down. But then it comes back to the issue of this offense. Blah.

Other Special Teams Woes
The Bears followed up with their worst special teams performance last week to WSU with a game filled with two costly mistakes. The aforementioned missed field goal and giving up a Cliff Harris punt return that would be Oregon’s only points of the first half.

Overall, I thought Anger and the coverage team had one really well on their punts. I thought the Bears executed what they wanted perfectly with their decision to hang all their punts, thereby preventing Harris a chance at any returns.

Until they had to punt out of their own endzone in the second quarter. As soon as the ball came off Anger’s foot, I knew the Bears were in trouble. Needing to go for distance rather than height, the Bears outkicked their coverage, leading to two gunners out of position to make the tackle. The ensuing coverage was poor, and the Ducks had equalized, just like that.

Outlook
Again, as a Cal fan, you’ve got to be both frustrated beyond belief, yet still clap your Bears off the field. They played their hearts out there and pushed the top ranked team like no other team had done all season. I for one have my head in my hands, yet know well enough to take a deep breath and applaud what was still a gutsy performance, particularly from the defense.

At the end of the day, it’s important not to lose perspective from expectations headed into the game. The Bears were expected to get pummeled. To come out and put on that type of defensive performance has to give a real confidence boost headed into next week’s Big Game. The loss is heartbreaking for a number of reasons, but there’s still enough football left to be played that the Bears can’t let it negatively affect what they have to do. Do the Bears have severe questions on offense and special teams? Absolutely. But most major overhauls will have to be addressed in the offseason.

So we march on…

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Keys to the Game: Oregon 2010

"Whatcha gonna do! When Chip-amania runs all over you!"

It’s been a bit difficult to come out with the keyboard blazing to pump out a “Keys to the Game” post for this game. Everyone knows the challenge at hand. The Bears who have been hot and cold all season, square off against a visiting top ranked Oregon team. And the Ducks look good. Real good.

Call me one of the skeptics who wondered how strong the Ducks would be entering this season as they broke in a new quarterback Darren Thomas. But Thomas has been brilliant, and the offensive machine that Kelly has constructed in Oregon has been downright scary. The Ducks’ no-huddle spread offense is the top in the nation in most statistical categories, including points (1st – 54.7 ppg!), total offense (1st – 567.2 ypg), and rushing ypg (4th - 307.44). The Ducks have gone over 50 points six times this season, and no team have held the Ducks under 40 points. I can’t remember an offense that has looked as prolific as this one, and it’s been the top scoring offense in all of college football in at least the last eight years. It’s not just the number of points they put up. It’s the blistering speed and efficiency at which they score.

“They just have so many weapons and they spread you over the field so much and they’re so fast. With the running back that they have, it starts with being able to try to slow the run down. They wear you down. They play at such a fast tempo and if (James) finds a crease, he can make such big plays. They make huge plays in the run game.” -Jeff Tedford

And don’t sleep on Oregon’s defense. In my opinion, the biggest difference with this Oregon team with ones in years past, has been the complementary solid defense. The Ducks are 17th in the nation in scoring defense, giving up just under 18 points per game.

Everywhere you look along this roster, this team looks about as solid as you come, with all-conference players at some of the most critical positions including defensive tackles Brandon Bair and Kenny Rowe, WR Jeff Maehl, an outstanding offensive line, and oh, Heisman candidate La Michael James.

So what’s a Bear team to do?


Offensive Control
A lot is likely to be made about how the Bears defense will handle the Oregon offense. In all likelihood, even keeping the Ducks under 50 points will be a challenge. Even at the Bears’ best, trying to slow down Oregon’s speed offense will be a tough deal.

However, the more and more I think about it, I maintain that so much of the Bears’ success today will be dependent on well its offense performs. Oregon’s offense moves at such a blazing pace, that ball control when Cal is on offense will be critical. The Bears can’t afford early three and outs and let the Ducks score two or more touchdowns in the first five to ten minutes of the game. The game will be over before we know it. This Cal team hasn’t shown it has the mental toughness yet this season to bounce back from that type of point deficit.

On offense, the Bears need to sustain longer, drawn-out drives. This will be the Bears’ best defense. This will keep the Cal defense on the bench, allowing them enough time to rest and recharge both mentally and physically, as well as keep the Oregon off the field where they can quickly put games out of reach.

Now, nearly every team that has faced Oregon this season has tried this approach in their gameplans, and have failed. No team will win in a shootout against the Ducks, and most teams simply have a difficult time executing on offense as efficiently as the Ducks do. What makes the task even more difficult for the Bears is that new starter Brock Mansion simply hasn’t had enough time to get comfortable enough with the offense and its personnel to be expected to execute at the necessary proficiency to stage the upset. It will be a tough to near impossible challenge.

Contain, Contain, Contain
There’s a bit to Oregon’s offense. They don’t have the most complicated playbook, and really just work out of a few basic looks. But they execute it to such perfection that it takes flawless execution to stop them.

Avinash at California Golden Blogs has a pretty detailed look at Oregon’s offense.

I’ll leave the coaches with the task of trying slow down Oregon’s offense. I will say however that they take extra care in containing the edges. In the games where the Bears have been hurt most on the ground this season (Nevada 316 yards, USC 211 yards, OSU 197 yards), they have lost containment off the edges.

The Ducks are going to continue to pound the middle, and are going to be productive regardless of where they run the ball. However, if the Bears struggle again with defending the edges and allow James or Thomas to get open field if they bounce outside, then forget about it. I’m ok if the Bears give up some yardage with runs up the middle, with the occasional big play. I’m not too happy if the Bears leave the edges free for James and Thomas to play around in.

Force Some Turnovers and Hope for the Best
When you’re expected to lose 3 or more scores, let’s face it, you need the ball to bounce your way on a few occasions. The Bears have played pretty disciplined ball at home, and have typically been pretty good over with their turnover margin at +3 on the season. The bigger issue though is that the Ducks have been +11.

All we can hope is that the Bears will be fired up, be smart with the football, and see if they can capitalize on some turnovers.

Outlook
Again, it isn’t good. There are too many cards stacked against the Bears in this one. But I’m looking for the Bears to play as they had nothing to lose. Regardless of the overall score, I’m hoping the Bears can get whatever they can from this one, which may include a confidence boost in being able to hang with Ducks, even if it’s just for select spots of the game.

I’m sure the Bears aren’t seeing it this way, with hopes and aspirations of doing what no one has this season and take down the number one team in the nation.

“There’s nothing daunting about it at all. It’s a great opportunity. Everybody on this team is excited.”
-Brock Mansion

Prediction
Cal 17
Oregon 48

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Washington State Recap 2010

A little late, I know, but a recap is a recap, right? And a win is a win. There might have been some hair-pulling and gnashing of teeth at the Bears allowing one of the worst teams in the country to hang around all game before pulling one out in the Pallouse 20-13. And yes, the win was far from pretty. In fact, the Bears did nearly everything a team could do to get upset (turnovers, special team gaffes, stalled drives), but still showed some grit to battle out a win and notch their first W on the road.

A few thoughts:

Mansion Does OK
The stat line wasn’t very impressive (12-24 for 171 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTS). One is more entitled to scoff given the competition (one of the worst pass defenses in the nation). But actually watching the game progress, I actually liked what I saw out of Mansion. He didn’t seem too wide-eyed in his first start, and was throwing the ball with authority. Like most first starts, there was some good and bad.


The Bad.
The two interceptions were either bad reads, or bad throws. Either way, they were bad. The second interception looks more and more like it was a case of miscommunication with him and Vereen on his option route, but the ball ended up in about the worst possible place for the receiver.

Another concern was Mansion’s accuracy, particularly over the middle. He seemed to sail the ball a bit, but there weren’t too many that were completely out of reach for the receiver, just a few that were about half a foot too high for a leaping WR. Having Mansion settle down with his footwork should hopefully shore that up.

The Good.
In looking at the positives, again, I liked that his passes had some zip. They showed good arm strength, but more importantly some confidence in that he knew where he was going, didn’t overthink a bit, and just let it rip. Sometimes the balls were out of reach, but a few other times they were right where you wanted them.

Also, Mansion throws a really nice deep ball. Not quite Kevin Riley-pre 2009-esque, but looked pretty similar to some of Longshore’s best deep throws. The kid’s got a nice arm.

It was a bit refreshing too to see Mansion on the QB keepers. It’s still a debate as to whether his two long runs were on actual zone reads, or if he planned on tucking it in pre-snap, but regardless, he showed some legs on his two runs. He takes a little to accelerate, but I think Mansion has gotten a lot faster from his high school days once he picks up a head of steam.

Finally, one of the most encouraging aspects of Mansion’s game, which also carries over from his Oregon State performance, is that he seemed to play better as the game went on. Mansion started the game 5 of 13 for just 70 yards in the first half, but went 7 for 11 in the second half for 101 yards. More specifically, he was 6 of 9 for 74 yards and no picks in the fourth quarter. Again, I don’t think his play was all that terrible in the first quarter, just a bit erratic. He looked a lot sharper in the second half though.

Last point on Mansion, it was nice to see the coaches having confidence with him in regards to the playcalling. On one instance in the first half, with the Bears backed up close to their own endzone, they called for a passing play on first down. That rarely happens with this offense. He ended up sailing the ball, nearly killing Calvin in the process, but he ended up keeping the ball on the next play for a nice gain on the ground. It shows the coaches’ confidence with Mansion, or at the very least, that they feel comfortable enough with him in there that they want to take a shot in instilling some confidence in him.

At the end of the day, Mansion didn’t quite wow you, but he at least showed enough to make you think that there could be a real solid QB in there down the line.

Defense Saves the Day
It seems like every complimentary point about the Bears will be prefaced with a statement about how bad WSU is. But before we starting brushing off all highlights, let’s at least point out that WSU had been much improved on offense this season. Sure, they had no running game, but they were the 5th best passing offense in the conference, averaging nearly 260 yards per game. And they had hung up a fair number of points against some decent competition (23 on Oregon, 28 on the ‘Furd). So these guys were far from being a joke on offense.

With that in mind, you have to like how the Bears held the Cougars to just 92 yards, on just 9 of 25 passing attempts. Sure, they got hurt on the ground a bit, giving up 102 yards, but it seemed to be far more by design that they were willing to give up some gains on the ground to avoid getting scorched in the air.

The Bears seemed to play plenty of man defense, pressing the WSU receivers aggressively enough that Tuel had to wait a bit for them to come out of their routes. This gave the Bears’ defensive line enough time to pressure Tuel without having to commit more than four rushers. It worked out well enough, with the Bears racking up a whopping six sacks on an outmatched WSU offensive line.

Defensive Ends Lead the Defensive Line
Again, the defensive line had one of their more dominant performances of the season, with the Bears using 3 DE sets of Jordan, Owusu and Guyton. Derrick Hill was out, and Payne still appears to be banged up, so Tipoti got his fair share of playing time when they subbed in a NT. The Bears usually sent just 3 or 4, with Kendricks or Mohammed often being the rush backer, and abused the Cougars offensive line.

There were a couple of frustrating moments in which they got in the backfield, only to see Tuel squirt out and either throw the ball away or gain a few yards on the ground. I think that speaks to Tuel’s athleticism a bit in the pocket, but it also seemed like the rushers were more intent on a homerun hit on the WSU quarterback as opposed to trying to wrap up cleanly. At least from what I saw.

Kudos to Cameron Jordan, who should have won Pac-10 defensive player of the week honors with his career high 12 tackle, 1.5 sacks, 3 TFLs and 1 FF is a ridiculous stat line. Guyton also impressed with his 2.5 sacks.

I highly doubt the d-line has another performance like they did on Saturday, so it’s good to enjoy a six pack sack day when it happens.

Special Team Struggles
I felt like special teams had been showing some chinks in their armor the last few weeks, and their regression led to their worst performance of the season.

It was a number of mental errors and a lack of focus that led to some gaffes. The Bears gave up a 33 yard punt return (with about 4 whiffed tackles) to set up a Washington State field goal at the end of the half. Brian Schwenke was caught napping at got bulldozed on Cal’s blocked extra point which could have been disastrous had the Cougars been able to drive down the field late. Tavecchio also continued to struggle with field goals, missing a 37 yarder.

It’s one thing to have special teams mistakes. It’s another to have them in a game as close as this was.

The only bright spots appeared to be decent coverage on kickoffs and Anger’s nice day of 4 punts inside the 20 yard line for a 47.3 yard average. Oh and Tavecchio had two touchbacks! Two!

Offensive Line Does Ok
Which is concerning. Yes, they gave up 3 sacks. But one was on due to miscommunication, and another was when Vereen was out of position due to a play action and missed a blitzing corner. And yes, the Bears rushed for 212 yards, but quite frankly, the Bears should have flat out dominated the Cougars on the ground. It’s frustrating to see how mediocre this offensive line looks against a defensive unit that has been simply bad against the run. One of the worst in the nation in fact.

That’s not to say that the Bears o-line was terrible. Far from it. It’s just a bit headshaking to see them be just marginally ok when they faced obviously weaker competition. It provides some context as to why the Bears offense has looked shellshocked against stronger defenses.

I do like the personnel change of inserting MSG back into the starting line however. The left guard spot suits him a lot better than tackle, and he looks a lot smoother when pulling than he did in trying to react to a first stop from quick defensive ends.

I wish we had a bit more depth at the tackle spots however.

Secondary Looked Solid
It was a bit difficult to gauge given some of WSU’s dropped passes and the pressure Cal was getting on Tuel. But Jared Kardstetter and Marquess Wilson are a good WR duo. Holding them to just 57 combined yards is something to hang your hat on. Darian Hagan showed some real nice coverage on what could have been two touchdown passes, and I continue to understand why Tedford stated that Steve Williams is one of the best cover corners we’ve had at Cal. I don’t agree fully yet, but you definitely see how that might be the case sooner than later.

Wide Receiver Drops Need to Stop
Seriously. Please? For Mansion?

For Me?

Play of the Season
Jeremy Ross’ conversion on 3rd and 20, with the assist of his teammates might have been the play of the season. With the Bears leading by just 1 point with 8 minutes left in the game, the Cougars looked like the verge of seizing the momentum with a defensive stop. The crowd looked ready for the ensuing punt and go ahead score.

The Bears decided to play it safe and called a bubble screen to Jeremy Ross. The play looked to be dead upon catch, but a devasting pancake from Brian Schwenke opened up a lane for Ross. A defender closed on Ross, ready to end the nonsense, but boom! Ross Hurdle in full effect. Yet Ross was eventually wrapped up, short 9 yards of the first down, only to have his teammates bowl into the pile. The legs kept moving, and the Bears ended up with the first down.

Unreal stuff. It’s hard to say until the end of the season what play defined our year, but if the Bears end on any kind of high night, it’s likely we’ll look at that moment as the reason we didn’t fall to the Cougars.

Looking Ahead
Oregon. Bleh. I’ll talk about it more in my Keys to the Game, but what else can you say? The Ducks look unstoppable right now, and the Bears eeked out a win over one of the worst teams of the season. It’s not the best position prior to a matchup with the number one team.

Or is it?

It probably isn’t. Oh well. Play like your hair is on fire gentlemen. Go Bears.

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Washington State Preview

I’m going to have to make this a shorter post, especially considering how late in the week this is. I’m going to forego writing any semblance of a Keys to the Game feature and instead, just a recap of a few thoughts before we take on Washington State.

A loss against Washington State would be an utter disaster and a lowpoint in the Tedford era. Cal has had their share of headscratchers, but most of our big losses have been against teams that turned out to be pretty darned good. We’ve also been lost to teams we should have beaten such as pretty bad teams in UCLA and Washington in past years, but I can’t recall the last time we’ve been upset by a bottom feeder like an 1-8 Washington State squad.

With that said, a loss to the Cougars would not be completely out of the question or an absolute surprise at this point. I think that speaks to the improvement of WSU, and the inconsistency (putting it lightly) of this Bears squad when facing adversity, specifically on the road. This game is very much losable.

Again, the Cougars have made some pretty strong gains, particularly on the offensive side of the ball where they currently have the 5th ranked passing offense in the conference (avg: 258.1 ypg). Jeff Tuel has come on a bit this season, finding some key targets in Jared Kardstetter and Marquess Wilson. The receiving duo has combined for 1419 yards and 10 touchdowns this year, better than any other receiving pair this year.

However, the Cougars are still a season or two away from being a consistent threat in the conference. Their offensive line has paved the way for an average of just 73 yards per game on the ground, and have allowed 36 sacks on the season (twice as many as the Bears). The bigger disappointment is a defensive squad that ranks among the worst in the nation in most statistical categories: 116th in scoring defense, last in total defense, 119th in rushing defense, 106th in passing defense, 107th in opponents’ third down conversions, etc.

Like I said last week though, statistics mean very little to this year’s Bears squad. We know very weel the Bears can come out flat again “poor statistically defensive teams.”


Much will be made about Brock Mansion’s first career start. Honestly, I think his performance will be wholly dependent on his offensive line protection. How this offensive line performs in its final performance will be the bigger. After reshuffling its personnel a bit, with MSG finally getting the starting nod at LG, and Schwenke moving to RG, it will be interesting to see how they impose their will in the trenches. If Mansion has more than a few seconds to go through his progressions, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t have at least a decent day.

Frankly, the game will be won in the trenches and on the ground. If Vereen can’t rush over 100 yards on the ground today, it’ll cement the fact that there is something incredibly wrong with the entire offensive scheme and personnel.

The biggest issue is how the Bears will respond during their last road game of the season against an inferior squad. If the Bears make some mistakes (turnovers, key penalties) early on, and let WSU get up early, it’ll be hard not to kiss this game goodbye. But if the Bears can focus on assignments, drive down the field for a touchdown while forcing one or two three-and-outs, then I think the Bears will roll.

Again, the Bears should win. And absolutely need to if they want to keep any bowl hopes alive. As much as WSU has improved, I can’t foresee a loss to the Cougars being anything more than just a mere possibility. But then again, three blowouts on the road say, “Hello!”

Prediction
Cal 38
WSU 17
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Oregon State Recap 2010

I said it before, and I’ll say it again. Bad things happen when the Bears face off against the Beavers. And Saturday’s game was about as close to a nightmare as you can have of a game.

The temptation for the biggest story on the day will be the devastating injury to Kevin Riley. After completing a clutch pass to Marvin Jones on an all too common third and long, Riley was tackled low which left him on the endzone writhing in pain. An absolutely nasty injury, and you had to feel for the kid. It seemed like everyone knew Riley’s game was over, and it was even more sickening knowing his career at Cal was likely done as well.

The injury aside though, the bigger issue was again the biweekly faceplant by the Bears on the road. It became obvious early on that the Bears were again going to struggle mightily. Very few other aspects of the game, if any, went well for the Bears. OSU’s defense toyed with the Bears’ defense, and the Bears’ offense shot itself in the foot continually with a mind-blowing number of penalties and mental mistakes in their helpless attempts at scoring. Other than the Riley injury, it seemed like déjà vu with the ways the Bears gave up field position, and looked rattled on both offense and defense.

Another game, and another gloomy road loss.


Things Change with Mansion
The offensive gameplan changed greatly with Mansion in the game. Not only do you throw out a number of plays, but you play right into the defense’s hands knowing you’re going to focus on running the ball early on. Later, the defense doesn’t have to send nearly as many players on passing downs given how slowly Mansion was going through his progressions.

At the end of the day, I didn’t think Mansion did too poorly, but he took far too long in deciding where to go with the ball, and the results were stalled drives and numerous sacks. This was fairly evident in the second to last drive in the first half. With OSU’s missed field goal, the Bears had a chance to try and drive down the field in what would have been an obvious two minute drill, but instead the Bears took their time with Mansion needing valuable seconds to call out plays and attempt to read defenses before snapping the ball. The Bears would earn just 15 yards on five plays and again punt the ball.

Mansion did finish the game well though on a last minute hurry-up drive, checking down before hitting Anthony Miller for a 45 yard gain and avoiding the first offensive shutout by the Bears since 1999.

Penalties Kill the Bears
The most frustrating aspect of the afternoon on offense though were the penalties. The Bears had been one of the least penalized teams in the conference coming into the game, but imploded against OSU.

It seemed like every single drive was marred by backbreaking penalties. On the first drive of the game, a hold by Donovan Edwards negated a first down run from Shane Vereen and instead put the Bears at 1st and 20 at their own 20 yard line. The Bears were sacked on third down after Edwards missed his man, and had to punt out of their own endzone, giving the Beavers a first down at their own 43 yard line.

On the ensuing return, an Illegal block had the Bears start on their 10 yard line.

Cue the Bears’ third drive. Mansion throws for negative yardage, takes a coverage sack, and then another false start for the Bears ends the first quarter.

But the Bears would pick up right where they left off, starting the second quarter with another false start, with a 3rd and 25.

Later in the game, Vereen runs for a nice gain, but then an unsportsmanlike conduct flag? An Illegal crackback block on Spencer Ladner. A holding call on Galas? WTF?!?

Brock Mansion’s best pass of the day to Michael Calvin that would have put the Bears in the red zone for the first time was negated by a holding call.

[Edit: The final count was 12 penalties for 103 yards. Until the Bears' final drive, that was nearly the number of total yards the Bears had gained on offense.]

Simply incredible.

With all of the aforementioned said, some of the calls were simply terrible. The refs seemingly had it out for the Bears, refusing to call some obvious penalties on the Beavers, and being hypersensitive to each and every play by the Bears. It was enough to earn the Bears an unsportsmanlike penalty after Tedford “excessively” argued a no call on the Beavers. Go figure.

Nightmarish Day on Offense
With all the things working against the Bears on offense—losing your starting QB, excessive penalties, you have to try and overcompensate by extreme focus in execution. There was none of that to be found, with the Bears killing themselves in other ways.

Seemingly every single drive on offense was a nightmare. In the second quarter, Mansion completed a screen pass to Allen who showed terrific moves to pick up the first down, only to carry the ball like a loaf of bread and get it knocked out for a fumble.

I understand the offense changes considerably when you lose your starting quarterback in the early moments of the game. But there’s no excuse for the Bears to be as stagnant on offense as they were. The Bears have far too many athletes for them not to gain more than just 100 some yards against OSU. That’s just a combination of terrible execution and focus.

Offensive Line Struggles Again
It seems with each loss, the Bears’ physical deficiencies at the offensive line become more apparent. We knew the Beavers' defensive front had some studs, but for the Bears to be tossed aside and side stepped in the trenches that often was difficult to watch. And this is coming from someone who thought the offensive line had progressed a bit this year. If the coaches had been considering some personnel changes, now's the time.

Defense Fails to Contain
The Beavers just had their way with the Bears on offense. It seemed like every single play they dialed up went exactly the way they chalked it up.

However, what aided in the Beavers’ offensive efforts however was the Bears’ inability to contain the edges on the ground. The Bears were unable to shed blocks, lost containment off the edge, and allowing Rodgers to bounce outside for some big gains.

Then you start looking at the wide receivers on the outside. The lack of containment allowed the receivers to make big gains with plenty of open space.

The effort and focus on sealing off the edges were much better in the second half, but some of it is also attributed to the Beavers being more content with running it up the middle.

Few Bright Spots
Let’s look at the bright spots:
- For the first time in nearly three years the Bears are going to have a jump start on their quarterback evaluation. I thought Mansion showed some good things, but the coaches will be forced into giving each candidate an honest look. I’d be highly surprised if the current competition came down to anyone other than Mansion and Sweeney, but at this point, why the hell not take a look at Bridgford or Hinder? At least they might see some third team reps.

- I though Steve Williams continued to demonstrate some fantastic coverage. On each unsuccessful deep throw attempt, Williams was running stride for stride with his defender in good position. He’s still a bit too skinny to be a complete corner, as he's not quite as physical in his tackles, but I like what I’m seeing coverage wise for now.

- Anthony Miller has regressed in terms of his blocking, but the guy is still a load to bring down. That ball got into the endzone on sheer effort.

- Again, that last drive was critical for giving Brock Mansion some confidence headed into this week of practice. One thing: He’s got to be faster. Much faster. Get the ball out faster and call out the blitzes a faster. The name of the game will be speed.

- Cameron Jordan continues to have a nice season. His defensive line struggled to get much pressure much of the day, but Jordan was impressive in getting in the backfield.

Thank You Kevin
I hate that I have to write at this point in the season, but I want to give a special shoutout to Kevin Riley. It’s an absolute shame that your career at Cal had to end the way it did. You faced about as much as a collegiate quarterback could, yet you hung in there, worked your ass off and represented the university well. You were a leader to this team, and I for one, won’t forget your commitment and dedication to this team. Thanks and best of luck with your future. Go Bears.

Outlook
The Bears will again have to regroup, under simultaneously similar and different conditions. They will again have to regroup after their second blowout in two weeks, but will have to do so without their starting quarterback.

It will be interesting to see whether they use this game a launching point in terms of trying to reinvent themselves a bit for this season (highly unlikely in my opinion). Will we see anything new? Perhaps the Bears use more shotgun and QB keepers with Mansion? I did think he did far better with his throws when the Bears were spread out wide.

It’s more likely though that the Bears try to truck through this season with what they have. The question as always though: what do the Bears have?
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