Preseason Top 25: 1-5

We wrap up our look at my preseason Top 25 with the final 5. The best candidates for a BCS bowl, and National Championship contenders. But first, let's do a quick recap of #6-25.

(Click on the images for my writeups)

#5 Oklahoma - As much as Coach Bob Stoops has shown a propensity to choke in big BCS games the past few seasons (losing the last 4, in either gut-wrenching or blowout fashion), the guy knows how to coach. Oklahoma has been in the running for the Big 12 title nearly every year since Stoops took over the program and this year looks to continue the trend. The Sooners benefit from playing most of their toughest Big12 foes at home (Cincinnati, Kansas, Texas Tech) and not having to play other conference favorite Missouri. Despite losing Malcom Kelly, the Sooners return a bunch of talent with the offensive side of the ball. If Sam Bradford can avoid a sophomore slump and Demarco Murray can stay healthy, Oklahoma will be up there with TTU and Missouri in terms of offensive firepower. While Oklahoma will be dominant in stopping the run with their defensive line, there are questions at linebacker, and the Sooners will be fresh at the cornerback position. And Oklahoma wasn’t ever all that great in pass defense any way. Even so, the questions on the defensive side of the ball aren’t enough for me to believe that the Sooners will again be playing in a BCS Bowl this year. The question is whether or not they’ll win in it.
(Predicted Regular Season Finish: 11-1)

#4 Ohio State – I would rather let each hippie tree-sitter in Berkeley fart in my mouth than see Ohio State in another National Championship game. I’m just fed up with seeing the Buckeyes float through cupcake schedules and blow through a subpar conference only to bend over for a SEC teams in the National Title game. With that said, I think this is actually better than the last two championship contenders. The Buckeyes return a ridiculous 18 starters (and a kicker and punter to boot) and features one of the best defenses position by position. Heisman front runner Beanie Wells will put up big numbers and the force of Sweater Vest will be working its mojo all season. Only an early game with the USC Trojans provides a wrinkle in a potential perfect season. If the Buckeyes escape USC with a win, then you can pretty much sharpie them in for a third consecutive national championship bowl appearance.

(Predicted Regular Season Finish: 11-1)

#3 USC – I’m not going to do it. I’m not pegging USC to go undefeated this year. And it’s not because I hate USC (which I do—a lot). And it’s also not because of Ohio State. In fact, I think USC that despite their questions on offense, I think USC manages to take down Ohio State this year. It’s because I think somewhere in the season, the Trojans drop a game to a Pac-10 conference team. Call it a gut feeling, or perhaps wishful thinking, but I sincerely believe that with all the mystery and questions surrounding Pac-10 teams this year, someone will rise up and knock off the Trojans, perhaps even at home. USC’s toughest games over the past few years have all been against Pac-10 squads (with the exception of the memorable 2005 Rose Bowl), and I don’t expect this year to be too different. Pete Carroll’s squad will still a very good bet to take a seventh consecutive league title and may end up in the National Title game, but not without faltering somewhere down the line.

(Predicted Regular Season Finish: 11-1)

#2 Florida – It’s not out of the question to imagine a number of other SEC teams pegged in at this spot (Auburn, Georgia come to mind), but in the land of the SEC, schedule DOES make that much of a difference. Most of Florida’s conference schedule consists of teams they should be favored against, with the exception of a few key games: @ Tennessee, hosting LSU, and against Georgia in Jacksonville. That last game could very well determine the national championship picture.

Oh and offense? The Gators are going to be scary good. With starters returning from an offense that averaged 42.5 ppg last year, they’ve got all the makings of an even better scoring juggernaut (Tebow, Harvin, more talent at the tailback position, and a very solid offensive line). The biggest question for the Gators’ success this season involves their defense, arguably the main reason why Florida wasn’t in the hunt to repeat as National Champions last year. I have good reason to believe that Florida’s young defense will be much improved from last year. The secondary, which started freshman corners last year, return with a year of experience. The entire starting linebacking corps. is back. If the defensive line can grow up quickly, Florida should be one of the top contenders for the national title game.

(Predicted Regular Season Finish: 11-1)

(This? This don't phase me.)

#1 Missouri – Yes Missouri. I’m not declaring Missouri the best team in the country just yet. But the Tigers have the talent (15 returning starters) including a leading Heisman candidate in Chase Daniels and the coaching (you have to be impressed with what Gary Pinkel has done there) to make a serious threat for the top spot this year. But what really separates Mizzou from the other NC contenders is their favorable schedule. The Tigers start the season with a formidable opponent in Illinois, but their only other tests this year will be games against Nebraska and Kansas, two teams I don’t even have finishing the season in my Top 25. They don’t face either Oklahoma (the only team to beat them last year, twice in fact) or Texas Tech, unless it will be the Big 12 Championship game. The biggest question is how a team will handle the unfamiliar pressures of being the hunted throughout the course of the entire season. The only thing stopping Missouri from a spot in the National Championship game may be Missouri themselves.

(Predicted Regular Season Finish: 12-0)