Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Reasons for Concern

I try to do this before every season, but it's always somewhat cathartic for me to navigate through the flood of emotions I encounter shortly before a season. And with the season set to kick off just two weeks away, emotions are raging.

But it's more than that. I've always felt I will enjoy a season much more when I've successfully come to what I think to be a fairly rational projection of how the Bears might perform this season.

My Reasons for Concern and Hope series is usually an attempt at trying to break down what it is that drives me to feel utterly desolate about the Bears to feeling giddy with joy.

So without further adieu, here are the reasons to be concerned about the Bears this year. And if it isn't already clear, I will be following this up with my reasons for optimism, just so you don't think it's all negative nanciness around here.

Offensive Tackle Depth
Let me preface this by saying that I have an immense level of trust in Coach Michalczik's ability as an offensive line coach. He will find the best 8 guys to step on the field.

But our depth at offensive tackle is a huge concern.

First off, there are the question marks with the starters themselves. For as much hype as Matt Summers-Gavin has received this offseason, no one will disagree with the statement that he is woefully out of place at tackle. He's a guard, plain and simple. But he is admittedly the best option the Bears have at the RT position, protecting Zach Maynard's blindside. That has to tell you almost everything you need to know about the depth there. MSG is a solid guard, reduced to being a serviceable tackle, and that is frightening.

Then there's Tyler Rigsbee who has battled injuries for most of his career, and was understandably unable to unseat 4 year starter Mitchell Schwartz at tackle. But he was also unable to unseat MSG, even when he was healthy, to allow for MSG to shift to the inside. I've got some comfort in the idea of a 5th year senior who has seen action and has been around long enough to not appear completely wide-eyed, but I can't honestly attest to how well he'll actually play this year.

The depth after that might form a lump in your throat. Bill Tyndall and Brian Farley are both walk-ons who have seen little game action. We've heard nothing about Matt Williams. And there's There's a decent chance that we might see true freshmen Freddie Tagaloa and Steven Moore rushed into action as well. As big as I am about these two, I can't think of the last time the Bears had a true freshman play on the line other than Brian Schwenke. And neither of these guys have gotten the type of camp praise that Schwenke did.

There are enough question marks as it is about the OT position. I shudder to think what might happen should one of the starters go down.

No Bye Week
In a scheduling screwjob of epic proportions, the Bears were left without a bye week this year. In the world of college football, when you play just 12-13 regular season games in determining a conference champion, that's huge. Teams simply can ill afford to not have a week to get key players on their team healthy, and mentally refresh themselves from the pressure-packed grind of college football.

And keep in mind, health alone is going to be critical. Injuries happen all the time, if the fact that Dominic Galas, Jason Gibson are already out for most of the season just from the start of fall camp. And we're talking about practice. Practice?

The Bears are fortunate enough to have quality depth at certain positions such as running back or at defensive line, where a starter missing a game or two wouldn't destroy the Bears' chances in certain games. But proven depth in other units such as offensive tackle, cornerback, or wide receiver are hand-wringingly nervewracking. And for as much as some have concerns about Zach Maynard, I can't think of the last time that an injury to starting QB has been a good thing for the Bears.

The Bears will need to stay healthy and mentally sharp, a nearly impossible task in a schedule without a bye week.

Special Teams
It's been nearly unfathomable to me that this hasn't gotten more attention in the media this past offseason. The Bears' special teams has ranged from mediocre to face-palming it the past several years. Consider last year's numbers.

Punting: 43.43 ypp (22nd nation)
Kickoffs: 61.21 ypk (89th nation)
Opponent Kickoff Returns: 20.39 ypr (37th nation)
Opponent Punt Returns: 7.0 ypr (49th nation)
Field Goals: 87% (7th nation) Giorgio!
PAT: 85.7% (117th! nation)

As you can see, our coverage teams were decent, our specialists were solid, and our point after protection was atrocious.

This was with two senior kicking specialists.

This year, the Bears usher in two new starters at the position. One who was benched in favor of Giorgio Tavecchio and the other is a true freshman.

Ruh-roh.

Vincenzo D'Amato and good buddy of Tavecchio, came in as a rare scholarship kicker for the Bears in hopes that he would solve the Bears' kicking woes. Instead he struggled with injuries and inconsistency, going 7 for 12 on his FG attempts his first year. He would ultimately take a redshirt his junior season to allow the vastly improved Tavecchio the opportunity to start his senior year. D'Amato reportedly has plenty of leg, but if history is any lesson, it takes time for the Bears' kickers to improve. We've seen it with nearly every kicker we've had, and one can only hope that D'Amato has used the past few years to develop that consistency and mental toughness. But really, that only comes in games and I'm not sure D'Amato has seen enough over the past few years for the Bears not to have a noticeable dip in performance this year in this area.

Cole Leninger is a highly touted frosh punter who has reportedly put many of Tedford's punting concerns to rest, but he is still ultimately a freshman. Even if he were to become a standout punter like his predecessor, it's hard for me to imagine there not being any type of dropoff in punting this season. Bryan Anger was that special. And if anything else, the Bears still maintain they will partake in the rugby style punts. Oy vey.

Inside Linebacker Play
When you look at the names at the inside linebacker spot, from Nick Forbes, Dave Wilkerson, JP Hurrell, Robert Mullins, Nathan Broussard, to true frosh like Michael Barton, and Hardy Nickerson Jr., it's easy to kept swept up in the talent at that position.

But the more I look at footage of Cal's defense last year, the more I realize how incredibly critical in the inside linebacker positions are.

And then you consider the departed talent at Mychal Kendricks and DJ Holt, and you realize not only athletically gifted they were, but how sound they were in their assignments. Their one weakness was being sound in pass coverage over the middle at times, but they were for the most part what helped this Cal engine run.

And even watching Kendricks fly around the field in last night's preseason game against the Patriots, and you realize how special this guy was.

Holt and Kendricks combined for a hefty 187 tackles last year.

So yes, I'm excited about the talent we have stepping up, but it's hard for me to believe that that kind of production and efficiency is going to be replaced. Not right away at least. And given the youth on the outside with sophomore Chris McCain and Brennan Scarlett, you've got a linebacking corps that's ripe for mental errors early on in the season. I don't care how talented this group is, that's a scary proposition.

Playing Oregon State in the Last Game of the Regular Season
I'm going to make this simple and have you direct your attention here.

But c'mon, seriously? I don't care how terrible Oregon State has been or will be. Play in Corvallis in November has heartbreak written all over it.

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