Keys to the Game: USC 2010

Sorry for the delay in getting this out this week. My computer has been acting up this week, so I'm actually typing this out on my blackberry. More apologies for the brevity and impending spelling errors.

The Bears and the Trojans meet in the Coliseum this Saturday for what is typically the annual heartbreak and hair-pulling loss to USC. Jeff Tedford is 1-7 against the Trojans, and 0-4 at the Coliseum.

Yet this year feels different. Heck, it is different.

For the first time in Tedford's tenure as head coach, he won't be across the fist-pumping, gum chewing persona that was Pete Carroll. Instead, he'll be up against a protege in Lane Kiffin, the heir to the throne of the former USC dynasty.

Kiffin's USC team looks profoundly different from teams of USC's past, in that they hardly look like the dominant teams that struck fear into opposing teams' heart. But make no mistake about it, this team is still as athletically rich (and probably monetarily as well, zing!) as any team in the conference.

The biggest questions will be how Cal's improved and at times, dominant looking defense will matchup against USC's improved and at times, dominant looking offense.

Conversely, how will Cal's talented but at times mediocre defense perform against USC's uber-talented, but at times sub-mediocre defense?


Flood the Zones
The USC defense has been burned this season, and it’s been a bit confounding to try and figure out why exactly, given the athletes on defense. Even more confounding is the fact that their defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin is considered one of the preeminent defensive coordinators in all of football, and one of the inventors of the Tampa 2 (cover 2) defense. The scheme that had so much success and inspired the way defense was played, has been exposed and ripped up in his first season coaching his son’s Trojan team.

The Cover 2 typically allows for the cornerbacks to play press coverage for the first five to ten yards which allows for the two safeties (the cover 2 so to speak) enough time to cover the back halves of their field. Meanwhile, the outside linebackers cover the flats while the middle linebackers are responsible for the middle zones.

The Cover 2 can be beaten when vertical routes are run to stretch the coverage, causing indecision among the safeties. Similarly, zones can be “flooded” when multiple routes are run in hopes of pressuring the backers, typically the middle linebackers.

The latter is where and how the Bears will have to attack the Trojan defense. USC, as athletically talented as they are, has yet to yield a corps of linebackers this season that have been consistent in defending the pass. They have appeared hesitant and undisciplined, and one can only hope this stays the course for at least another game.

The Bears are going to need to bring a steady dose of the running game so that they can begin baiting the middle linebackers into creeping up to the line of scrimmage before releasing some receivers and tight ends over the top. If the Trojans give enough credit to Cal’s rushing attack, the middle linebackers will be late in getting back to their zones, and the Bears will hopefully find success in moving the ball in 15 yard chunks through the air.

Keep Barkley in the Pocket
The Trojans have typically done a very solid job of running the ball and this year isn't much different with the Trojans averaging over 200 yards on the ground with their zone and power rushing attack.

The Bears have done well against the run this season however. While I don't expect the Bears to completely shut down the Trojan run game like they did to UCLA last week, I do think the Bears can hold USC to some moderate rushing gains.

So the more pressing issue is how the Bears will handle USC's passing attack which seems revitalized this season with playmakers Ronald Johnson and frosh Robert Woods on the outside, and a maturing Matt Barkley under center.

While the Bears secondary has performed well against the pass, much of it has been due to the pressure the front seven has created on opposing quarterbacks. The Bears may not have that luxury this game however, as Barkley is athletic enough to roll out of the pocket when sensing pressure and has excellent accuracy on the run. Knowing this, USC does a nice job of dialing up designed bootlegs (a staple of their offensive scheme for years) to get Barkley into some open space to make plays. Also, the longer Barkley is able to keep the play alive, the more difficult it becomes for the Bears' secondary to keep the USC receivers in check while they're left to improvise.

It would make sense then, that the Bears defense should be concerned about pursuit and contain, as opposed to simply trying to get into the backfield. They may not find anyone there.

I don't believe the Bears will need to commit a spy on Barkley, they should however be incorporating a few more contain packages and some delayed blitzes to create pressure after Barkley has made his decision about getting out in space. The Bears need to keep Barkley contained and left to make decisions inside the pocket.

Meanwhile, the Bears secondary will have their biggest test in front of them in defending one of the league's best receiving duo. Playing man coverage is one thing. Playing man coverage for an additional 3-4 seconds is another.

Special Teams Need to Get Back On Track
This is the first time this season that I've included a special teams note in my weekly Keys to the Game feature, mainly because I really haven't worried about these units as much. The Special Teams has been one of the most improved parts of the team this seson.

"But, but, Giorgio Tavecchio has missed 3 straight field goals, 2 of which cost us the game against Arizona!" you say. Jeremy Ross fumbled the ball twice on punt returns last week! Tavecchio only has 2 touchbacks all year! ALAMAAAAAAAAARRRR!!!

But c'mon now, be it a case of low expectations, but these are much better concerns than what we were asking ourselves last year.

With that said, the trojans are coming off back to back games in which they've lost by a field goals in the waning seconds of the game.

Should the Bears put themselves in position to set up the game-winning score, it'll come down to our beloved specials teams.

A scary thought for most of you, I know.

Special Teams has in my mind, has always been about passion and discipline. While I'm sure most special teams coaches have more to say about the matter, strong discipline and focus can usually trump scheme and athleticism on special teams.

It will really just come down to that.

Outlook
The Trojans look vulnerable, but they also looked vulnerable before our matchup last year, before they spanked the Bears 30-3 at Memorial Stadium.

I think the Bears defense will do enough to slow down (although not quite stop) the Trojans into giving the Bears a good shot at pulling the upset.

It's hard to say it, but I do think the game will fall on the offense, and specifically the passing game. If the Bears can get USC's linebackers and safeties to respect the passing game enough for the offensive line to open up some holes for Vereen and Sofele, the Bears will be able to eventually wear down the Trojans depleted defense late in the stretch.

But it will take a steady and consistent passing attack early on. Something the Bears have failed to show in its first five games.

Prediction: Cal 24 USC 21