Keys to the Game: Oregon State 2010

Ahh, the annual OSU showdown. Other than USC, there are few other teams I loathe playing against as much as the Beavers. And it’s not because I hate them. In fact, I think somewhere underneath my nausea with their black and orange color scheme is a begrudging respect for their style and performance in the conference the past decade.

But let’s face it. The Beavers have taken part in some of the worst and most heartbreaking losses under Tedford. From the 2007 Kevin Riley run to Jahvid’s terrifying fall last year, you just get the sense each year that something bad is going to happen. The Bears have lost 9 of the last 11 to OSU, and have yet to beat them since 2006.


Regardless, the Bears face a critical game. Despite dominating teams at home, including last weekend’s 50-17 beatdown of ASU, the Bears have yet to win on the road this year, typically losing in either a heartbreaking or spectacularly bad fashion. Oregon State on the other hand, appeared to be picking up their annual “rip apart conference opponents starting in October” mojo, until losing in double overtime to Washington before last week’s bye.

They appear to be reeling, especially defensively, where they currently rank 119th in total defense (out of 120). What more, they lost arguably their biggest playmaker James Rodgers for the season. Ouch.

But if we’ve learned anything this season, it’s that statistics and injury issues mean nothing for this Cal team. It boils down to whether the Bears show up motivated and ready to execute in all phases of the game.

A few things...


Can Tedford Surprise Riley?
The biggest determinant in the annual Bears and Beavers matchup always comes down to OSU’s defense versus our offense. And we’re typically on the losing end. Why? Because, it seems like OSU’s Mike Riley has pretty much figured out Tedford defensively. OSU is content to stack the box, play man defense, and force the Bears to making big plays through the air which they’ve failed to do consistently.

This year appears to be no different, but I wonder how the Bears will plan on mixing things up this year given some of the questions the Beavers have had on defense, and some of weapons the Bears have found this year.

Normally, I’d spout reasons for attacking the Beavers through the air. OSU ranks dead last in the conference in passing defense, giving up 281 yards per game. That’s bad. Like, nearly 2009 Cal defense bad.

Yet the Bears have failed to be a consistent threat this year in passing the ball, with Riley and company managing just passing 199 yards per game. While I don’t expect much of a difference in terms of balancing both a healthy dose of run and pass, I’d hope the Bears get a bit more creative in how they try and get those yards.

Instead of attacking the middle of OSU’s front seven, I’d hope they try and utilize the Bears’ speed at receiver with some reverses and sweeps of their own to try and attack the edge. Continually get Keenan Allen the ball on some of those split screens like they did against ASU last week has to be a priority. You have to think the Bears begin handing the ball off on some wildcat formations to keep the Beavers honest.

And again, perhaps throw in a few no huddle drives, just to get Riley into a rhythm?

Control ‘Quizz, Control Beav Offense
As much as I try to wrap my head around various modes of attack, and different ways the Bears should gameplan for the Beavers defensively, I keep going back to Jacquizz Rodgers. Although it doesn’t seem like too much of a rocket scientist statement, it’s still a bit of a head scratcher given how the Bears bottled up ‘Quizz to just 67 yards on 25 carries the year prior, but still managed to lose 31-14. The major differences offensively with this year’s OSU squad however, is that they lack QB Sean Canfield who torched the Bears for 342 yards last year, and currently feature an offensive line plagued with injuries.

Don’t get me wrong. I think QB Ryan Katz is a solid talent. I was impressed with his athleticism even from his limited playing time last year, and the guy has handled his first year as a starting QB in the Pac-10 better than most had projected.

Yet, there’s a noticeable dropoff in OSU’s gameplan when Rodgers is unable to make big gains on the ground. Katz is forced into being a bit more aggressive than I’m sure the coaches would like him to, and subsequently rushes through his progressions and is more likely to force a ball. In the loss to Washington, Katz was 17 for 31 for 201 yards and three interceptions. As was the case with losses against TCU and Boise State, Katz has shown that he can be rattled when pressured, leaving his completion percentage to plummet and the offense to stall.

So it all comes down to controlling the run game. No easy task. Even when defenses make Rodgers the top priority, he does an amazing job of squirting through for positive yardage. He’s incredibly tough to bring down for his size, and has about as good of vision and elusiveness at the line of scrimmage as I’ve seen in a back the past few years. The key is not necessarily trying to stop Rodgers, it’s to control the line of scrimmage enough with solid gap assignments and good tackling to try and control the offense and force them in third and long situations. If the Bears get to a point where they’re giving up 4-5 yards a carry, they’ll become impatient and lose control of gap assignments. And then Katz begins to flex those arm muscles for big gains on play action. Or the fly sweeps go for 15 yards instead of just 3. And all hell breaks loose.

Win the Field Position Battle
The Bears have made a lot of nice gains in terms of special teams. They’ve cut back their average opponent starting field position by about 10 yards (from 34 to 24), and have shown a bit more productivity in the punt return game this year.

Yet, in their losses the Bears have struggled with field position, forcing them to be much more conservative on both offense and defense to start the game.

Despite losing James Rodgers, the Beavers have still managed to maintain their position as 9th and 7th in nation with punt and kickoff returns respectively. The Bears absolutely have to be disciplined on return coverage to avoid knocking themselves out a fighter’s chance at the field position battle. This is all the more important in games as expected to be as close as this one might be.

Outlook
I’m predicting a Cal loss. And don’t call me out for not having faith in the team. I believe this team can absolutely win in Corvallis (gosh, did I just write that?). It’s just hard for me to see it happening. It’s almost similar to our struggles in Tucson and the Coliseum, but the aura just surrounds OSU as a whole. As I said before, bad things happen when OSU and the Bears face off. Color me scarred.

It should be a close one though. While the Bears lead in most statistical categories over the Beavers, again we know that such logic has meant little in terms of predicting results this season. The Beavers are a smart and disciplined team, with a defensive mindset that appears all but set to try and lock down the Bears’ offense.

If the Bears can get their playmakers into space however, and control OSU’s offensive tempo by contained ‘Quizz, we’ve got a great chance at reversing the Bears’ fortunes against the Beavs.

Go Bears!

Prediction
Cal: 24
OSU: 34