Keys to the Game: UCLA 2010

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At the beginning of the season, I had little doubt the Bears would struggle against UCLA. The Bears have typically had little trouble against the Bruins at home, and the Bruins looked like they have were looking for any kind of clue after starting 0-2 on the season.

Since then, the Bears have dropped back to back games to ranked foes, while UCLA has won three in a row including wins over ranked opponents including Houston, and a seemingly shocking upset over Texas.

Needless to say, it became a little tougher to predict this one.

I still think the Bears should handle UCLA, but I do think the margin for error has slimmed down a bit.

Moreover, both Cal and UCLA enter the matchup in an absolutely critical matchup for conference standing implications. The winner has a solid shot of contending for the top half of the conference, with the loser likely joining the bottom tier, as preseason prognostications had projected.

In short, the Bears can't afford to drop this home game to the Bruins and go 0-2 in conference play.

Here's What You Need to Know
The big story on offense for UCLA it its switch to pistol offense which seemed like an outright failure with an unhealthy Kevin Prince struggling to get things going early on. Since then, the Bruins have seemingly found answers while rolling up big numbers on the ground.

The defensive unit has had its share of ups and downs, but still can be categorized a stingy unit featuring possibly the best players at their respective positions in the nation, S Rahim Moore and LB Akeem Ayers.


Better Discipline on Defensive Assignments
The question of how to defend the option, specifically a zone read option like the pistol offense always sparks a lot of interesting debate. Typically, one side usually argues for being over aggressive in hopes disrupting the backfield and rattling the signal caller. This makes him second guess whether or not to keep the ball, eventually eliminating that option altogether. The other side emphasizes a bit more discipline on assignments to avoid giving up the big play.

In looking back at the Nevada game, it sure looked like Cal took the former approach. We all know that turned out.

It seems though it wasn't so much the aggressive approach, but an incorrect gameplan as how to attack, and when to do so.

In my Nevada Keys to the Game, I wrote:

"The key to defending “gimmicky” or option offenses, is really to play assignment football. As tricky as the offenses may appear, these offenses are predicated upon trying to get you to look in a direction away from your assignment and get you out of position. The Bears can help themselves if they play disciplined ball on defense."

It seems this time Tedford and Pendergast seem to be a bit keyed in on their mistakes from the last attempt at the pistol, and I'm actually fairly confident we'll be a bit more successful this time around. Tedford hinted at leaning more towards discipline with assignments, as opposed to simply trying to disrupt the backfield.

Says Tedford:

"The lesson you learn is you need to be disciplined in this and take away all phases, you can't get caught trying to do something, make a play that's not your assignment, because sure enough, after that, there goes the guy that was your assignment. So, very important that we play disciplined and that we're aggressive but not overly aggressive to the ball and get guys out of position."

In reading into the quote, it appears we're not going to see an abandonment of being aggressive, but you certainly get the sense that the Bears are going to rein it in a bit to make sure UCLA's rushing duo of Jonathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman don't absolutely find an easy lane for a quick score.

I think it's a bit interesting too, given that Prince isn't nearly the running threat that Nevada's Colin Kaepernick is. If anything, we can afford to spy a little less on Prince, although he is still a threat to take it to the house if he's given some open field. We'll see how that works out.

Make Kevin Prince Pass
I think Prince's inability to pass has been a bit overblown. Prince can pass if given time. It's not like he's an inept quarterback back there. But make no mistake about, UCLA's bread and butter is grinding down opposing defenses on the ground. See 1312 rushing yards (2nd in the conference) versus just 455 passing yards (10th in the conference yards).

The Bears should be absolutely tuned into the rushing attack, willing and ready to stack the Bruins in hopes of limiting big gains on the ground and forcing the Bruins into third and long situations. The Bruins are converting just 36.67 percent on third downs this season. Much of that is due to the struggles in the passing game.

While UCLA's receivers are athletically gifted, they haven't shown a consistent ability to hurt defenses in the receiving game, dropping some key passes on the few chances they get.

Prince meanwhile, is completing just 46 percent off his passes for just 57 yards per game and a measly 4.5 yards per attempt.

Key in on the run. I'm almost tempted to say we consistently creep up both safeties closer to the line and force Prince beat us in man coverage. I'm alright with giving up a long pass or two if we can limit UCLA's rushing attack to under 200 yards.

In fact, if UCLA beats Cal because Prince lights up the Bears for 300+ yards and 3 TDs, as a coach, you pat him on the shoulder at the end of the game, and congratulate him on the game of his life. However, if Prince rushes for 100+ yards on the ground, you have to think that you goofed in your game plan.

Stretch the Field Vertically
Offensively, I know there might be fans who are really down on the Bears. It's hard to blame them after the Bears failed to hit paydirt against Arizona, having to settle for just nine points on three field goals, and six points that could have been on two missed field goals.

However, I do think the Bears have shown a few things on offense that people should find solace in. I do think the offensive line has slowly made progress with each game, and specifically in the Arizona game, I thought Cal exhibited the ability to wear down a very solid defensive front in Arizona with their rushing attack. Although the passing game has been inconsistent, there's certainly some potential, and the pass protection has been fairly solid in the early going.

I know some might look at the way WSU lit up UCLA for 311 yards, and start salivating at the idea of starting an air raid on the Baby Bears. However, as opposed to simply trying to air it out every down, I believe the key will be to maintain balance offensively. While that's likely a no brainer of a statement, especially given Tedford's insistence on offensive balance, if the Bears can establish a more effective passing attack this week, it will open up some running lanes down the stretch for the offensive line and Vereen.

Specifically, I'm more intrigued to see what type of plays the Bears run in the passing attack. UCLA typically runs a zone defense, so Riley will have to look quickly to find the soft zones to get the ball to the receiving corps. However, I'm hoping they take a few shots down the field for more modest 15-20 yard gains. Doing so will force UCLA's linebackers to back up a bit to again, take some pressure off Vereen for the home stretch.

Outlook
The Bears could certainly drop this one, and lose it quickly if UCLA is able to get the running game going early on. You also don't know which team we're going to get, as UCLA seems to be about as Jekyll and Hyde as a team can get in the Pac-10.

I do think however, that the Bears are going to motivated and hungry for this one. They appear to be well rested, healthier, and better prepared to defend the Bruins. I also think they will be one of the better defenses UCLA has seen thus far, and have a chance to blindside a team that is still finding itself.

Also, don't forget the homefield advantage.

So yes, I'm a bit apprehensive, but my gut says the Bears win it down the stretch.

Prediction: Cal 27 UCLA 17