Keys to the Game: Washington

"Buyer Beware: Watch this Price."

During my preseason preview of the Bears for College Football Zealouts I wrote that Cal's game against Washington might be one of their most significant conference games of the season.

"Speaking of Washington, they provide one of the more important barometers of how the Bears will fare in conference play this year, along with Utah. Neither teams are expected to win the conference, but wins over both may help distinguish the Bears over others in the middle of the conference pecking order."

In short, neither the Bears nor the Huskies are Pac-12 North favorites, but many will look at this game as a strong indicator as to who will be 3rd in the Pac-12 North. While that may be too early of a statement, Saturday's game will be huge in revealing a bit more about the quality of this Cal team.

Right now, few are sold about Cal as a contender, and rightly so. However, if the Bears can knock off Washington in Seattle, you have to chalk that up as a quality win, and would have to seriously consider the strong possibility the Bears could end up going at worst, 8-4 this season.

Lose however, and the Bears find themselves at 3-1 with Oregon, USC, and Utah lined up immediately afterwards. It'd then be difficult to convince anyone that this season wouldn't be much of the same from last season.

This is a huge game. Let's break it down.


Rattle Price
The biggest factor in my mind, is the Bears' ability to slow down Washington's offense. I've watched parts of all three of UDubb's games, and their offense can move the ball. While the Huskies are only averaging 378.7 yards per game, they have been efficient, averaging 36 points per game and scoring on close to 86% of their trips to the endzone. They've also been fairly balanced, averaging 148.3 yards per game on the ground, and 230.3 yards per game through the air.

Runningback Chris Polk is currently 2nd in the conference in rushing yards per game, with an average of 120.7. The guy has really emerged as a balanced and dangerous runner, capable of making defenders miss and grinding out solid yardage in tight situations. The Bears have seen firsthand what he can do in goal line situations, though he only has 2 rushing touchdowns this season.

However, if Polk is the cog that gets Washington running, Keith Price is the reason the Huskies are soaring. The young redshirt sophomore is touting a nice 165.9 qb efficiency rating, and has completed 64.4 percent of his passes. While he isn't quite the rushing threat Locker was (due to his shoddy knees and thinner frame), he's far more accurate and has just as good pocket presence to buy his receivers extra time to get open.

Price is currently running on two bum knees however, and has already been sacked seven times, which is fairly typical for a more mobile quarterback.

If Price has time to sit back and let his larger receivers in Jermaine Kearse, Devin Aguilar and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins get open, he'll rip the Bears a new one. The Bears will have to dial up different types of blitz packages to disrupt Price. Again, disrupt. Slants, stunts, zone blitzes, anything to mess up Washington's protection and get Price out of rhythm and increase the difficulty of him progressing through his reads.

And while you're at it, the Bears need to get as much contact as possible, without seriously hurting the guy. I'm not looking for the Bears to injure Price, but I am looking for them to get in his head and wear Price down mentally and physically. Even if the Bears give up a moderate gain on a screen or short pass, they need to be finding ways to knock Price down over and over again.

Oh, and keep him in the pocket. The more times he has to roll out, the more time time Washington's talented receivers have to get open and give Price some passing lanes.

If the Bears can rattle Price, I trust that their usually solid rushing defense will contain Polk enough from beating the Bears all on his own.

Passing Game Steps Up
Much has been made about Washington's defense, and frankly, how terrible it has been. And the numbers don't look promising.

Through three games, the Huskies have given up on average, 36.7 points (107th out 120 teams nationally), 452 yards (108th), 320.3 passing yards per game (112th).

While Washington still has played poorly defensively, they were gashed playing Hawaii and Eastern Washington, who both run more unconventional offenses. Their lack of preparation for such attacks may have contributed to such gaudy numbers. Though with Nebraska, the Huskies were plain up beaten at the line of scrimmage against a more traditional Nebraska offense.

The shining light for the Huskies though, is that I still believe they have the talent to become a respectable defense once they get their act sorted out.

Unfortunately for the Bears, such breakthroughs have usually come at Cal's expense.

Don't let it happen this weekend. Please. Don't make Washington suddenly look like the fastest, most physical defense in the conference. Because you know it's happened before.

I can't shake the feeling that Maynard and the passing offense will be the difference in the game. Marvin Jones and Keenan Allen will be the best receivers that Washington has faced thus far, and in every game Cal has played, they've shown the ability to move the ball through the air. Washington's secondary has talent, but the lack of pass rush in previous games have led to the Huskies getting burned by the pass. The Bears need to attack Washington's secondary.

I would hope the Bears really take advantage of spreading out Huskies a bit more than usual. This will only be effective however if Maynard can cope with the notion of checking down and hitting his underneath receivers if Jones or Allen are double covered, where the Huskies will capitalize. If he can find single coverage on either of one his stars receivers, then forget about it.

Minimize Mistakes
As many ways as I look at it, I think the Bears are fairly even. I think both offenses can move the ball, and both defenses are prone to lapses.

If that's the case, the home team should be favored, but it will really come down to which team commits fewer errors.

So far, the Bears have been sloppy, committing 26 penalties (111th out of 120 in the nation) and are even on the year in their turnover margin.

Cal has also had 3 extra points and a punt blocked, revealing their propensity for brain farts on special teams.

Moreover, Maynard has thrown an interception in each game, with one being returned for a touchdown, and another thrown in Cal territory.

Sloppy, sloppy. The Bears can't win with anything close to these types of errors. Period. It doesn't matter how well they execute in every other facet of the game. If they're flagged again more than five times, fall asleep on special teams blocking assignments, or if Maynard continues to force passes, the Bears will lose. Plain and simple.

Outlook
On paper, you would like to favor the Bears, as both offenses are about even, though Cal has flashed better potential defensively.

Yet, intangibly, there's so much to be afraid of. Cal, especially their defense, has face planted so many times before on the road, and Washington has also been behind much of that heartache in the Bears' last two trips there. The Bears have also shown enough sloppiness in all three of their wins to make one feel it's only a matter of time before such play comes to bit them in rear.

While I can't help shake a bad feeling about this game, the sunshine pumper in me feels that the Bears squeak out a close one, on the last play of the game. How sweet would that be?

Prediction
Cal 34 Washington 31