Friday, November 27, 2009

My Tiny Contribution to Diablo Magazine

Just giving my readers a heads up that I was recently featured (very briefly) in a short Diablo Magazine writeup regarding Jahvid Best and his future at Cal and/or the NFL. They refer to me as one of their "sports authorities." Bwahahah.

You can read the full article here, as they also have some responses from Jonathan Okanes, Larry Beil, among others.

They actually only took one short quote from me, which made me seem like more of a fanboy Niners/Bears fan than anything else. Here's my part of small contribution when asked whether I thought Best would return for his senior year or take his chances with the NFL Draft.

"I’d consider it unlikely that Best will return for his senior year. I’d love to see the 49ers take Best, after passing up on what I thought were two obvious draft errors involving Cal players—picking Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers and passing up on DeSean Jackson twice."

Again, that was actually only my partial response to the lengthier question of where I thought Best would end up. Since they only used part of my responses, I thought I'd share my full set of answers to my loyal readers. You can check them out after the jump.

Keep in mind that we were all asked these questions weeks ago, well before Best's likely season ending injury in the Oregon State game, so our responses might be far different if we were asked the same questions today.


1. Do you think Jahvid Best will return and play his senior year at Cal? If so, what kind of season will he have?
At this point, I'd consider it highly unlikely that Best would return for his senior year. Of course, a lot could happen between now and then, but if most draft analysts have him projected anywhere in the first round, it would be hard for me to imagine that Best would stick around.

And much of this speculation is because of the very idea that other than helping his team getting into the Rose Bowl, or having more standout performances in bigger games, thereby strengthening a Heisman campaign, it's unlikely that Best would have a substantially different year in his senior season. In his past three years at Cal, he has battled injury issues (while not quite being injury prone, there is a difference), while showing playmaking abilities and also struggling in some bigger games against elite opponents.

It's difficult to say whether any of the above would see a dramatic turnaround his senior year. He would likely again be a consensus pre-season All-American, a possible first round pick while again rushing for about 1500 yards and 15 touchdowns.

2. What chance is there that Best will enter the NFL draft after this season? If he does, when would he be drafted, and what team would you like to see him play for?
During Cal's first few wins, Best was getting serious consideration as likely being the top back taken in the draft. His performance during Cal's two losses may have affected his stock a bit however. Best still struggles a bit picking up pass rushers in pass protection, and hasn't developed enough of a tough inside running game to be the obvious top runningback candidate at this point. His playmaking ability and speed is enough for most teams looking for a second change-of-pace tailback refrain from passing on him twice in the draft though.

I would say late first round, early second round. But if Best averages 150 yards a game the rest of the way through, and puts on a clinic during the combine, we could be talking about mid-first round consideration.

Personally, as a Niners fan, I'd love to see the 49ers take Best after passing up on what I thought were two obvious draft errors involving previous Cal players (picking Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers and passing up on Desean Jackson twice). But Mike Singletary's offensive mindset doesn't seem to be a good fit for Best. He might fit in as a nice change of pace back with Green Bay or Pittsburgh.

3. Where will Best rank in Cal football history?
Best will undoubtedly go down one of the most explosive and biggest playmakers to ever play for the Bears. He just might have one of the best individual highlight reels, hands down.

The biggest knock on Best might be that his biggest runs rarely came in the most dire of circumstances. Other than perhaps the Emerald Bowl, none of his greatest rushing performances came against elite defenses or in the most critical moments of games. Most of his most spectacular runs came against slightly inferior opponents and in moments that were important, but not quite game changing. A 55 yard touchdown run late in the game to upset the Trojans 28-26 in Memorial Stadium this year might have changed things. Alas, we are without such Jahvid Best moments.

While a bit of the inconsistency might stop Best from unequivocally staking claim in being the top Cal runningback of all time, it says an enormous amount that he is even in such a discussion.

2 comments:

Ursa kimchi said...

Nice, well-thought out answers. Too bad they truncated them and mashed them together like that.

I think people in general have been overstating the Sam Bradford comparison when it comes to guys leaving earlier. Bradford was probably going to be a top five pick if he came out early. Consensus on Jahvid seems to be late-first to early-second, which is a big drop in terms of money. Furthermore, while RBs are at greater injury risk and have shorter careers, that also makes their rookie contracts all the more important in their career earnings. If Jahvid can work his stock up to upper-first round, I think he leaves. If he doesn't, I can see him sticking around and trying to improve his stock behind what figures to be an improved o-line next year (although it looks like next year's RB class will be a bit deeper at the top).

Here's a better (or at least a more interesting) question: would Cal be better off if he left? Or put more sensitively, would they be better off with Vereen as lightning, Yarnway as thunder, and DeBo and Isi as capable options, compared to status quo Best/Vereen at 1A/1B and while trying to figure out ways to get Isi, DeBo, and Yarnway carries?

I'm thinking the former scenario is preferable unless Best is used in a Percy Harvin type of way or our O-line improves enough to give him the kind of holes he was seeing at the end of 2008. In any case, I don't think we have much to worry about with our RB situation for the next few seasons (knock on wood).

Bear with Fangs said...

Kimchi, you've got some really good points. Let me respond to a few of them:

Yes, I understand the drop off from first round money to second round money is pretty big. But with limitations coming in the next year or so on rookie contracts, it's going to get increasingly difficult for rookies to get paid. And if Best can slide into the first round, his options for getting paid are still much higher.

Again, the question is, what more could he do his senior year to really solidify himself as a top tier back, other than avoid injury?

As for the running depth situation, I'm of the opinion that if the staff needed to figure out how to work in Best, Vereen, Debo, Yarnway, Sofele...well let's just say that'd be a good problem to have.

Don't get me wrong, I think we'll be more than fine with Vereen and Debo, with Yarnway and Sofele getting more carries and touches. We'll again have one of the deepest and most talented backfields in the conference.

But I don't think you'd hear many complaining about how to work Best into the mix.