Thursday, February 5, 2009

The Day After National Signing Day

"You'll see. I'll show you."

Continuing with the theme of Cal’s recruiting season, there was both good and bad this year in rounding up the 2009 class. I will say for the record, that there was far more good than bad.

That doesn’t ignore the fact that a few recruiting losses, most recently Stan Hasiak’s switch back to UCLA (by the way, what the hell is going on with THAT class?), contributed to the Bears’ 2009 Recruitment class ranking 34th according to Scout and 40th by Rivals, the lowest rankings since 2002.

Obviously, not being able to get Devon Kennard (who Cal was VERY close to getting), and Hasiak’s last minute switch hurt. It also would have been nice to get a sexy recruit like stealing Adam Hall from Arizona or Randall Carroll from UCLA (again, WTF Neuheisel?).

With that said, there a number of different points to consider about this class that really puts things in perspective:

It’s in the Numbers
First off, one of the primary reasons Cal is ranked lower is the actual number of scholarships that we handed out. 18 right now to be exact (depending on how you look at the King situation). 1st ranked Alabama dished out a whopping 27. 18th ranked Ole Miss gave away a ridiculous 37. I don’t even know if that’s allowed. The point is, with ranking systems the way they are, creating a pecking order by the ratings and the volume of players given scholarships, it doesn’t take a math genius to calculate that Cal would have been ranked higher had they had a greater need for more players.

In fact, if you arrange the class according to average star rankings (usually a more accurate sense of a class’ quality) Cal ranks 25th on Scout.

"Numbers aren't what fans should be concerned about," ESPN Scouts Inc. national recruiting director Tom Luginbill said. "You can only sign as many as you graduate. Fans shouldn't be worried about having 25 recruits in a class. They should be worried about the 85 guys on scholarship."

Cal fans should remember that we didn’t have much of an exodus of players leaving this year, as we return most of last year’s starters. Fewer players leaving = few players coming in. Makes you wonder what the hell happened at Ole Miss.

Star Skewing
Another point to consider is how even Cal’s average star rating has been skewed by some of the players we’ve recruited. This is a point beyond simply considering a player underrated by a recruiting site’s ranking system.

Cal’s only wide receiver pickup, JC player Markish Jones (which was a BIG get, believe you me), was rated only 2 stars by Rivals, and 3 by Scout. This is the same player who rated 4 stars by both sites as a high school senior, and was the South Carolina Shrine Player of the Game. Playing at the junior college level hasn’t allowed him to fully showcase his skills, and flying under the radar led to a new JC star rating, one that isn’t quite indicative of what Jones is really capable of.


The same can almost be said about DT Keni Kaufusi who was considered a top tackle prospect before taking a year off due to off the field issues. The guy is going to be a beast for us.

Also, consider that kicker Vince D’Amato was rated only two stars, a normal ranking for an elite kicker, but will naturally bring down a class’ average ranking.

Again, think of this way: 17 of our 18 committed players were ranked 3 stars or higher by Rivals, with about 1 third being considered premier 4 star players. Cal is eons from bottom barreling.

Great Balance
One of the biggest things that struck me about this year’s class was the balance at nearly every position. Cal refrained from overstocking at certain positions, just to try and land marquee players. Cal was for the most part, able to get at least one highly-rated player at nearly every key position, without trying to doing something like say…recruiting 4 tight ends. *cough Stanford cough* I do wonder what to do with 4 tight ends in one class. Anyway, I digress.

But looking at the class from top to bottom, the Bears filled needs at nearly every position:

QB: 1 (Allan Bridgford)
RB: 2 (Dasarte Yarnway and Isi Sofele)
WR: 1 (Markish Jones)
OT: 2 (Charles Ragland and Charles Siddoway)
OG: 1 (Brian Schwenke)
C: 1 (Mark Brazinski)
DE: 1 (Ryan Davis)
DT: 2 (Keni Kaufusi and Deandre Coleman)
WLB: 1 Jerome Meadows (2 including Lucas King)
MLB: 1 (Steve Fanua)
SLB: 1 (Jarred Price)
CB: 2 (Steve Williams and Vachel Samuels)
S: 1 (Alex Logan)
K: 1 (Vince D’Amato)

Again, the biggest point to remember is that we filled positions across the board to provide quality depth according to need. Take tight end for example, which is noticeably absent from the list. Strange, considering Cameron Morrah’s early departure right? But don’t forget that Cal recruited well at that position last year with 3 star Anthony Miller (Emerald Bowl baby!), and 4 star Spencer Ladner who redshirted this year and I think has the chance to be one of Cal’s best tight ends when it’s all said and done. So I think the coaching staff has done a pretty good job of addressing needs in areas where we’re investing in players of the future (like Bridgford or Yarnway) and providing depth in areas where players might be able to contribute right away (like Sofele or Davis).

The Proof is in the Pudding
I’ll try to have a very brief writeup on each player sometime in the near future. Unless some other blogger beats me to it. Then I’ll probably get lazy, link you to that post and choose to watch “Lost” instead.

But, again, the more I look at the class the less I become concerned about where they’re ranked. The staff has done a great job and is getting some pretty good national recognition for our recruiting efforts, and it appears the class is by and large underrated by many accounts. The fact that we were very much in the running for some the nation’s elite talents is a pretty good indication of far Cal has come.

However, recruiting isn’t a popularity contest, nor is it a feel good game about how far a program has come. The true barometer of quality is exposed on the field. And for that matter, it may be some time before we really see how the class will stack up to others. If it were all about rankings then, UCLA will have trumped USC as the top program in the conference, with Stanford chomping at the bits. (Lord that’s a scary thought).

With that said, Cal has got some really good players in the mix. Again, I’ll try and have a write up soon. We may have missed out on a number of headline grabbing, sexy picks, but I’m fairly confident when I say that we’ve got a good number of quality kids coming in who have the chance to show that they’re going to be pretty great.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

UCLA prevails once again. Too bad its shady and we will get busted in a few years.

Bear with Fangs said...

Hah! You'd think Chow would keep Neuheisel in check.

We'll just see how the players shape out.

Anonymous said...

Good post, BwF. As for Ole Miss having 37 recruits, they can only sign 25 per year if I understand the rules correctly. Thus, Ole Miss must be expecting MANY of their commitments to not qualify. I find this type of recruiting behavior very risky since there is the possibility that more than 25 guys will qualify and then one of those guys gets shafted (doesn't get a scholarship).

Bear with Fangs said...

Thanks Hydro. I read that somewhere as well.

I guess it's a bit safer to ensure you can fill your whole class, but certainly a bit unfair to the kids getting the shaft.