Ohio State Keys to the Game

("Wha, Cal? Oh, we chillin.")

The Bears head into their marquee showdown against the 3rd ranked Ohio State Buckeyes with seemingly everything to gain and nothing to lose. While Cal's offense seems to be on verge of being one of the more productive offenses in the conference, the Bears' defense finds itself struggling to stay healthy and looking for answers altogether.

Let's face it, the Bears will need to be near perfect in all three phases of the game to pull off the monumental upset. I've looked at how the Bears have done against Top 5 teams, and the history isn't pretty. But make no mistake about it: the Buckeyes aren't invincible nor are they unbeatable. This team can be had. Can they be had by a young team with red zone issues and defensive questions? Absolutely not, but still, they can be had.

While most points are obvious, let's break down the specifics.

Limit the Big Play
The Buckeyes are going to get theirs against Cal's D. Anyone who expects to shutdown Ohio State's offense is out of their bloody mind. Ohio State has all they need to put up considerable yards and points on any defense. The Buckeyes boast a starting offensive line sharing 100 career starts, solid receivers in Corey Brown and Devin Smith, a host of NFL talent in the backfield even without starter Carlos Hyde, and oh, a Heisman candidate in QB Braxton Miller.

Yeah, I know HC Urban Meyer is playing coy about Braxton Miller's chances of playing on Saturday, but did you watch his backup Kenny Guiton play last Saturday? Guiton could start for half the teams in college football right now.

So yeah, this offense is pretty good. And that's a scary prospect for a defense that could be without 5 of their starters and oh yeah, gave up over 500 yards to an FCS squad just a week ago.

I'm not expecting Cal's offense to stymie Ohio State's offense. But Cal needs to do a far better job of not giving up the big plays. The Bears are ranked 110th in the country on plays more than 10 yards allowed. Last week against Portland State, roughly 15% of the Vikings' plays went for more than 10 yards, which shakes out to about 1 play for every possession. That shizzle won't fly against the Buckeyes.

The good news is that Cal's defense has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde in that when they're not giving up explosive plays, they've appeared to look like a halfway decent defense.

The Bears' defense needs to force Ohio State into stringing together 15+ down drives. If so, they put themselves in a prime position to give their offense opportunities to make this a competitive game. While Cal's offense is ahead of the defense at this point, they are nowhere close to being able to compensate for quick scores on defense.

Finish in the Redzone
I have far more confidence that this offense is beginning to put it together. I feel pretty confident that the Bears' offense can move the ball as they've shown in the past few weeks. The issues though are that they are struggling to find a consistent rushing attack and have sputtered in the red zone. Stat whores will tell you the Bears have scored on 100% of their chances in the redzone, and that much is true.

What those Kardashians will fail to mention is they've only scored touchdowns on 50% of their red zone opportunities. While that's led to career numbers for kicker Vincenzo D'amato, that isn't going to cut it against a top 5 team.

The Bears' need that number to be closer to the 66% mark to hang with a Buckeyes' offense that averages close to 40 points per game.

No Turnovers
Seriously. None.

Outlook
It's pretty simple really. The Bears are not so outclassed in talent that the game is immediately out of reach. Cal can very much win this game despite what the pundits and Vegas (Cal +16) might be saying.

And despite what I said earlier, I don't think they need to be perfect. But they can't afford to turn the ball over, they need to capitalize in the redzone, and they can't let the Buckeyes score in less than 10 play drives.

I want to say that Cal can do that, but honestly I'm not sure they're yet. Had this game been played as a bowl, I'd like our chances much better. But with a defense featuring starters making their 2nd or 3rd career starts, I'm far less optimistic about our opportunities.

But sweet jeebus, can you imagine the scene if the Bears finally get it clicking?

Prediction:
Cal 27 Ohio State 42