Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Northwestern Recap


(Source: Mercury News)

A new era in Cal football kicked off on Saturday night in an electric evening game in Memorial Stadium. Though the game did much to energize a fanbase that has been starving for excitement, the Bears still showed their youth with a number of critical mistakes ultimately left them on the losing end of a 44-30 contest.

Let’s get to a couple of main thoughts.

Offense Can Be Great
In my Keys to the Game feature, I stated that I’d be shocked if the new, vaunted #BearRaid offense didn’t sputter early on. And despite a terrific opening 82 yard drive that was capped by a thrilling fake field goal attempt for a TD, the Bears struggled to move the ball for much of the first half.

I was pretty close to the Cal bench for the game, and following a Cal drive that stalled after back to back false start penalties, you could see the frustration from the offense. Freddie Tagaloa slammed his helmet down, Jordan Rigsbee laid into his offensive line, while offensive coordinator Tony Franklin laid into...well everyone.

The Bears really got going in the second half however, and when they did, the offense was a thing of beauty. The Bears moved at a blistering pace, showcasing the wealth of talent at its skill positions. It became almost difficult to keep up with the “1st and 10, do it again, GO BEARS!” chants.

But ultimately, the Bears’ offense did stall for good. With all of the momentum on the Bears’ side, the Bears seemed as if they were going to run away with the game, scoring on back to back drives to lead 24-20 in the 3rd quarter. They were undone by two tipped passes that were returned for TDs. One was tipped by an opposing defensive end while the other bounced off the chest of receiver Darius Powe right into the arms of Wildcat linebacker. After watching the replay, I wouldn’t say they were fluky plays, but there was certainly a level of luck involved. I’m not sold that both those passes are returned for TDs week in and week out.

So here’s the good news with the offense: I’ve already got a lot of confidence that we can move the ball on defenses. When Cal’s rolling, we all witnessed its greatness: the ball gets out quickly, it gets spread out to various targets, and Cal’s playmakers are able to get into space.

The problem is that despite racking up 548 yards of offense, Cal was only able to score two offensive touchdowns. They were just 1-5 in red zone opportunities, having to settle for 3 field goals and the aforementioned fake field goal TD. And frustratingly, all of the biggest mistakes from the missed blocking assignments and false starts occurred in the red zone.

It's an issue if these mistakes are still occurring midway through the season, but it's a bit more understandable when you consider that it's the first game. Despite all the issues, I think it's telling that the offense has already been able to instill a level of confidence in itself and in the fanbase after just one game. This offense can move the ball, and we haven't been able to say that about Cal's offense in a few years.

Jared Goff Impresses
I've been pretty high on Goff for a while, but what I saw on Saturday was just incredibly impressive. Goff threw for a record 445 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs in his debut. Were there throws that I'm sure he wanted back? Absolutely. A few of his swing passes were low and in the dirt, while a few of his deeper balls drifted a bit too far in front of the receiver. And for all the teeth gnashing about the "fluky" pick sixes, I counted at least two other passes that could easily have been picked off.

But almost everything else highlighted a brilliant performance for a true freshman. Goff really shook a slow first half with some absolutely beautiful passes in the second half. There was one particular pass in the 3rd quarter: Goff felt pressure from his left and began rolling to his right before throwing a perfect pass on the run to Chris Harper for a 20 yard gain and a first down. I immediately looked at my brother afterwards and said, "Wow. I don't think most people here understand how difficult of a pass that was to make." And Goff made it look effortless.

His accuracy on outs were fantastic, and I honestly can say it's been at least two years since I've seen a quarterback go through his progressions. Go back and watch the tape, and you'll see the speed at which Goff checks down and his one of his inside receiver over the middle.

And beyond that, Goff seemed unflappable. Other than one delay of game penalty, he managed the game and his teammates as well. After Jordan Rigsbee's false start penalty that ultimately stalled a Cal drive, Goff rushed over to Rigsbee on the sideline and repeatedly told him, "It's OK, it's OK." It's just not the type of maturity and poise you'd expect from an 18 year old.

And he's going to get better. He's got the potential to play like an all-conference player. I'm really excited to see how he grows as a quarterback, but even if it this is as good as it's going to get (and it's not), it's still a heck of a lot better than what we've seen at the QB position for quite some time.

Receiving Corps = Great
This was probably a little less of a story given that the wide receiving corps was a slightly more known quantity going into the game, but man, you have to like what you saw from Cal's WRs. 9 different receivers caught balls on Saturday, with 6 of them being WRs. And from the way the offense is set up, expect this to be more of the norm than an exception.

But none were more impressive than Cal's start outside receivers Chris Harper and Bryce Treggs. Harper hauled in 11 passes for 151 yards and 2 TDs, while Treggs caught 13 catches for 145 yards. Just awesome days for the two of them, and the type of performances that make me think back to some of Sean Dawkins and Brian Treggs' best games.

And these guys are sophomores. Sophomores. Let that sink in.

Defense a Mixed Bag
There were times on Saturday where I was flat out terrified about this defense. Quite frankly, there were a few too many drives where it seemed far too easy to move the ball on the Bears.

Cal's youth at linebacker and defensive end showed when they lost contain on some outside runs, as well some runs where they flat out got lost in crowd and allowed a few big runs up the middle including the Wildcats' first score.

The most alarming aspect of the defense though was Cal's pass rush, or lack of it. There were moments where NU QB Trevor Siemian seemingly had all day to throw.

Part of it was scheme. Defensive coordinator Andy Buh hardly sent pressure throughout the game. And when he did try to confuse NU's offensive line, it was often by having 7 or 8 stack the box presnap, only to have 3 or 4 players backpedal back into coverage.

Another part of it was the failure by Cal's defensive line to get pressure on their own. While they did a decent job in run defense, they failed to push back the line on most plays, provide easy passing windows for Siemian.

It doesn't matter how good your secondary is (which it's not, right now), there's not much you can do when your QB has 5-8 seconds to throw. With that said, Cal's coverage needs to improve, particularly in the middle of the field.

Honestly, you could easily point to the number of defensive starters who were out because of injuries. Hell Avery Sebastian had 11 tackles and an INT in the FIRST HALF before getting carted off the field. But you can't deny that things would have looked differently had Fortt, Forbes, Scarlett, Jalil all played the game.

Here's the good news though. I think for the most part, the game played out the way defensive coordinator Andy Buh would have liked. Sure, the Bears gave up huge chunks of yardage. But if you take away Northwestern's first and last drive, they were held to 3 FGs, 2 INTs, and 4 punts. In other words, they scored 16 points on 10 possessions.

And honestly, you saw some really good things on defense. They had some critical stops, and that goal line stand with the Wildcats having a first and goal on the 3 yard line was really impressive.

I think that's about what we can expect with this Buh coached defense. This isn't going to be a Clancy Pendergast "feast or famine" type of approach. It'll be closer to the bend-but-don't-break approach where you're going to see opposing offenses move the ball, but will be pressured into executing at a consistently high level in order to actually score touchdowns. Some times it will work, and some times it won't. You may not like it, but if things get going the way Buh likes, I'd expect opposing offenses to score 20-30 points per game, but rarely see a 40 or 50 point blowout.

And before you point to Saturday's scoreboard, remember that 14 of Northwestern's points were scored on turnovers.

Special Teams Shines
There of course some miscues on special teams, but overall, I was thrilled with the special teams performance on Saturday.

Vince D’Amato was automatic on his field goals (under 40 yards) as reported, going 3-3 on all his attempts. His kickoffs looked greatly improved, though his two kicks out of bounds were disappointing. The Bears were clearly trying to do directional attempts, though to have two fall out of bounds were head shaking. Not critical penalties, but disappointing.

Cole Leininger might be one of the most improved players on the team however, as some of his punts were Anger-esque. Leininger averaged 43.5 yards on 6 punts, downing 3 inside the 20 and an impressive long of 70 yards. He did have one bad shank, but it was overall a great day for the sophomore.

Other highs include the aforementioned fake field goal attempt, keeping the Wildcats to just 59 total kickoff yards, and no actual punt returns. True freshman Khalfani Muhammed gained 126 yards on 6 returns, and I’m absolutely convinced that the kid is going to return one for a score this season if teams continue kicking to him.

In short, it was a great debut for the Mark Tommerdahl led special teams units, and one I’ll easily take every week of the season.

Moving Forward
It wasn't a bad debut, it really wasn't. Disappointing? Hell yes. But nothing that makes you think this team is doomed. There are some incredibly bright spots on this team. Bright enough to outshine some real questions (run blocking, pass rush and coverage, penalties, etc).

It's early, but this honestly looks like a bowl team. If not now, it might be close to it in a few weeks. Of course, with their schedule, they may not actually have a bowl game to show for it, but they look like a bowl team.

I had predicted that Cal would go 7-5 this season with a win over Northwestern, but I'll adjust that to 6-6 with the loss. This team is already better than last year and can only improve.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

You can't really go back and readjust your predictions now that we've lost a game. That's like saying, I think Cal will win next week if we beat Portland St.

I think 7-5 was optimistic but I do agree that there is a lot of upside to get excited about. I just don't see this team picking up 7 wins given the schedule.

On a separate note, how do think this change to the spread affects recruiting in the future? Do you think elite players (think Mixon) will want to come play in Sonny's system when their ultimate goal is to make it in the NFL.

Sean said...

great post! wish I got to watch the game, unfortunately only caught the end =[

I agree though, definitely have many things to look forward to this season!!

Bear with Fangs said...

Anon,

I probably should have rephrased it better. I had included Northwestern as being one of Cal's 7 wins. I thought the game would be a tossup, but I did predict a win, so I'll own up to that.

Basically, I'm still seeing 6 more wins on the schedule for Cal, which is why I think they end up finishing 6-6 instead of 7-5.

As for the spread offense affecting recruits, I think it will depend completely on how successful the offense is is. That goes for any offense. Any recruit will look for an opportunity to get plenty of touches. I can't imagine that you WOULDN'T be attracted to that. It doesn't matter if you're getting the handoff out of a pro formation or out of the spread.

Anonymous said...

BWF - you are my hero and only solace from an otherwise mundane Tuesday after Labor Day Monday.

"It doesn't matter if you're getting the handoff out of a pro formation or out of the spread."

I was just curious to know whether you had any insight (whether qualitative or quantitative) into the success of spread-system backs in the NFL? If I were recruiting against Cal (or Ttech or Oregon), one of the first things I would point to would be the fact that these systems are not known for consistently producing elite NFL level talent (assuming that's what a particular recruit was interested in). I guess one counterargument is that Oregon hasn't really suffered a drop-off in recruiting despite the system they run (and relative lack of success by the likes of LaMichael James, etc.).

What's your take?

Bear with Fangs said...

Here's my take on it:

Systems don't produce talent. Talent is talent, and coaches help develop the talent that exists.

Ron Gould was an incredible RB coach because he took naturally incredible talent and coached them up to play at an elite level.

Do pro-style offenses help make RBs more NFL ready? Probably. But I don't think pro style offenses necessarily increase RBs draft stock.

Case in point: 6 of the top 10 RBs from this past year's draft worked out of some type of spread offense in college.