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Nothing helps a team's psyche like facing a pushover team to take out one's frustrations after a disappointing, physically exhausting game against your rival.
Too bad the Bears are facing Utah. Despite the Utes' 2-5 record they still feature one of the more physically sound defenses in the conference. And the Bears play at Rice-Eccles stadium at night in front of a crowd known for being particularly hostile.
Ruh-roh.
But despite the disappointing feelings coming out of last week's loss, I still stated that a win at Utah is still within grasp. Cal isn't close to the team we had expected them to be before the season, but quite frankly neither are the Utes. The Utes' have shown offensive ineptitude due to a carousel at QB and an offensive line that has seen its share of struggles. The team has gone through a pretty brutal conference gauntlet, and has no wins to show for them. They're essentially playing for their season at this point, as a loss on Saturday would all but eliminate them from bowl contention.
In other words, they're pretty similar to Cal.
Let's get to the keys to the game.
Keep 'Em Under 3
Utah's offensive identity the past few years has been a running game that wears down opposing defenses and allows their quarterbacks to manage the game. They've been a physical team with the ability to go toe to toe with most teams in the trenches. Unfortunately for the Utes, that hasn't been the case this year with Utah averaging just 2.87 yards per carry and just 4 rushing touchdowns all year. That's good for just 113th in the nation.
Utah's offensive line is struggling right now to create running lanes for Jon White the 4th. After rushing for over 1500 yards and 15 TDs last year, he's managed less than a third of those numbers (413 yards) with just 1 rushing TD. He's averaging less than 3.79 yards per carry. Talk about a setback.
Utah's backup RB Kelvin York is faring a bit better at 5 yards per carry, but unless Utah's offensive gameplan radically changes this week, it should be more of the same on the ground.
White hasn't been completely healthy this year, but the overall rushing numbers are more likely the result of a consistently overmatched offensive line that is struggling against defenses that are stacking the box and daring Utah's underperforming QBs to beat them through the air.
The Bears have struggled against the run this year, but I'm liking our chances against Utah. This hasn't been a dominant rushing attack, and the Utes aren't well balanced enough on offense to keep opposing defenses honest. This is an offense that's likely to try and run the ball at least 35 to 40 times a game.
Cal needs to get some of its swagger back in rushing defense and keep Utah to under 3 yards per carry on their 1st and 2nd down attempts. It'll help if Cal's offense can sustain some drives and keep their defense fresh, but plain and simple, if Cal's defense lets Utah start averaging 4 yards a carry, the Bears are screwed on D. Cal's got to play with good gap integrity, their linebackers need to play with their eyes and read blocking lanes, and finish tackles. Remember, keep 'em under 3.
Freeze Wilson
The Utes expect more from freshman QB Travis Wilson who is making just his third career start. Wilson's a big-bodied QB, who moves well for his 6'6 frame, but isn't as effective of a runner as the Utes would have hoped. And while he's compeleting over 60% of his passes, he's managed just 1 touchdown to three interceptions in his two starts. It doesn't help that his starting wide receivers haven't been able to consistently get open in tight coverage, which can be paralyzing for quarterbacks who still aren't used to speed of the college level. This isn't a knock on Wilson, but he simply doesn't have the experience yet to move quickly and decisively enough through his reads.
What's encouraging for the Utes though, is that Wilson has looked more and more decisive in each game. The fact still remains that the Bears are still facing a freshman quarterbacking make just his third career start. And as is the case when facing any new starting quarterback, the goal is to get as much pressure on him as possible. Every time.
It all starts with limiting yardage on first and second down like I mentioned before, but I'm confident the Bears pull out the win if they put the game on Wilson's arm. Utah's going to want to put Wilson in manageable passing situations and give him easy completions early on which shakes out to a lot of quick hitches, screens and outs.
The Bears need to jam Utah's receivers at the line of scrimmage and play with good enough coverage to take away those quickly early looks, and force Wilson to rush through his secondary and third reads. If the Bears can take away that first or second look, Wilson hasn't shown the patience or ability to create plays. Cal's defensive line has struggled to get consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but they've done a pretty job of at least being disruptive and can most certainly get in the backfield if the Bears don't allow immediate, short throws.
And for those of you keeping track at home, it's exactly the same type of scheme an opposing team would use on Zach Maynard.
Take Advantage of Our Athletes
Utah faces a stout defense with one of the better defensive lines we've faced all year. Of course by now, you've heard of sure-fire NFL 1st rounder Star Lotulelei who's been about as good of a defensive tackle as I've seen in a while. He doesn't post the gaudiest numbers with just 2 sacks, and 7 TFLs, but he's sure as heck disruptive. He's constantly blowing up lines and is frankly a player you design plays away from.
If the Bears employ a method of trying to run right into their defensive front, you're going to see more or less the same offensive issues you saw last week. Now keep in mind, Utah's defense isn't nearly as good as Stanford's, but these guys are no pushovers up front.
I've said all year that Utah's weakness on defense has been their lack of speed on the perimeter, and if you look at Cal's offensive skill players against Utah's defense, it certainly appears we have the advantage in terms of athleticism. The Bears have got to exploit this.
This doesn't mean Cal needs to live or die by the quick screens, but they do need to continue to find ways to get their playmakers in space on end arounds, stretches, and tosses. Get them into outside.
I'm not thrilled about the idea of placing the game on Zach Maynard's shoulders, but the Bears are going to be hardpressed running into Utah's manwall up front. Cal has a prime opportunity to exploit a Utah secondary that has struggled to make plays (just two inteceptions this year) and have shown to be torched by some competent passing attacks.
Outlook
I'm pretty beat up about this season, but not enough to think that we don't have a real shot on this one. Other than the USC game (and we always struggle against USC whether its on the road or not), I actually think we've handled road adversity pretty well this season.
I'm not too worried about the team looking wide-eyed, but I have my questions as to whether we can stop Travis Wilson from having his coming-out party and whether our offense can get back to utilizing its playmakers.
For as much as I wonder about Cal, I'm cautiously optimistic that the Bears can hold on in a close, defensive-mind (or offensivelly inept) low-scoring game.
Cal 20 Utah 14
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