Keys to the Game: UCLA

This is going to be a briefer post given that I did a bit of a preview in my Q&A for GoJoeBruin. We also have a look at the UCLA squad when they answered some of my questions, so there isn't too much more to say, but here are a few thoughts.

Comes Down to Hundley
As far as matchups go, the Bears seem to be at a disadvantage in nearly every way. Cal's defense has struggled against some spread offenses this year, and they face one of the most efficient and balanced offenses in the country. The Bruins rank 4th in the nation in total offense, averaging a ridiculous 560.4 yards per game. They're averaging more than 300 yards on the ground and aren't too far behind in their passing numbers (243 ypg).

In the new Jim Mora regime, the Bruins have ditched the pistol option (smiley face!) in favor of Noel Mazzone's spread attack (sad trombone noise). This was an offense that ripped up the Bears last season in Tempe, and Cal's defense isn't nearly as good as last years.

UCLA's offense likes to spread the field and get the ball out quickly. They run a lot of 3 back sets, and you'll often see the Bruins send a slot receiver and back in motion which creates a bit of a triple option in look. Defenses have to account for the receiver running the sweep, the HB dive up the middle and then the QB look. Even after diagnosing when it's a pass play, QB Brett Hundley does a real good job of quickly going through his motions and hitting the open receiver or dumping it back off to the receiver who had run out wide.

The fact that they're so balanced and run at such at upbeat tempo makes the issue even more troublesome. The Bruins run 90+ plays of offense per game, and are constantly subbing out receivers to keep their playmakers fresh.

It's going to come down to pressure and rattling QB Brett Hundley. He's done a great job this year in managing the offense, not turning the ball over, and getting the ball out his playmakers quickly.

The Bears will get torn a new one if they decide to play soft zone on this guy. I'm hoping to see far more man looks, with each Bruin player accounted for. In terms of individual matchups, I like how we stack up. But we need to make sure halfbacks and receivers running the fly sweep don't get lost and aren't viable options for when Hundley checks down and dumps the ball off.

Similarly, I'm not always a fan of QB spying as it leaves the team fairly vulnerable in other areas, but I like the idea with Hundley. For as good as he is, he's far less dangerous when a defender is able to take away the QB scramble away from his arsenal, so this might be one of those situations where you see the gameplan employed against Oregon two years used here.

The Bears have to find a good balance of attacking Hundley with diverse blitzes, but also make sure they've got the other players accounted for at all times.

Really, Cal's defense will have to play their best game of the season to stop this bunch. UCLA isn't going to lose a shootout, and Cal's offense haven't shown an ability to even be included in such a conversation.

Get the ball out quickly
Defensively, the Bruins are a fast and really aggressive bunch. This is a squad that likes to take their chances, and it shows with the Bruins ranking 4th in the nation with 41 tackles for loss this season. That's bad news for a Cal offense that's ranking last in the nation in sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed.

The Bears need to take advantage of an overzealous defense, one that is intent on pressuring the QB and having their DBs play press coverage in hopes of forcing indecision in opposing QBs. The Bears can find mismatches if they can find ways to get the ball out quickly. Oregon State lulled the Bruins to sleep by constantly hitting their tight ends out on 5 and 8 yards outs on the play action. If the Bears go back to some of the offensive schemes they showed against Ohio State, in hitting their tight ends and slot receivers on quick hitches, this can begin to force UCLA's defense to backing out of the box which can open things up for Cal's running game.

Outlook
Objectively, it doesn't look good any way you swing it. The Bears are at every statistical disadvantage, and the Bruins are looking like one of the worst possible matchups for the Bears right now.

With that said, that's why you play the game. We're all still clinging on to some hope, and what little I have lies in two things. One, I still don't think UCLA's as good as some are making them out to be. They're vastly improved, but I'm not sure they're as good as their numbers might indicate. Rolling bad Rice and Houston squads doesn't make you the 4th best offense in the nation.

Secondly, I think the Bears have some fight left in them. I think we'll see a bit more offense balance, and some weird part of me is blindly thinking that we can't look worse than we did last week against Arizona, right? I mean, we can't give up another 6+ sacks for a fourth straight game, can we? At some point a line is drawn, right? RIGHT???

Prediction:
Cal 17 UCLA 31