Keys to the Game: Oregon State

Oh sweet Jeebus.

It's the time of the year I hate the most. The one time of the college football season that I actually find myself looking for a corner to hide in, or a bosom to rest my head.

It's Oregon State Beavers game time.

What about OSU's 2-7 record has me quaking in my boots might you ask?

Everything that is the essence of Oregon State in relation to Cal football. That's what. Because no matter how well or how poorly the Bears are doing, the Beavers always find a way to beat the Bears. And not only beat the Bears, but eat our souls in the process.

Consider what I wrote last year before our game,

The Beavers have taken part in some of the worst and most heartbreaking losses under Tedford. From the 2007 Kevin Riley run to Jahvid’s terrifying fall last year, you just get the sense each year that something bad is going to happen. The Bears have lost 9 of the last 11 to OSU, and have yet to beat them since 2006.

And what happened in that very game? Kevin RIley was injured on a late hit, ending his season, and ensuring that the Bears would have their very first losing season under Tedford.

In fact, I'm even going to use last year's photo to encapsulate my thoughts about this game.



Certified, unimpeded, assured doom.

Now let's break down the keys to the game!


Rattle Mannion
The strength of the Beavers' offense is in its passing game. The Beavers have little running game to speak of, ranking 113th nationally in rushing yards per game, and a large part of that is due to their low number of rushing attempts. However, they simply haven't been able to pave the way for any of their backs to be effective consistent rushers.

Fortunately for the Beavers, redshirt freshman Sean Mannion has been decent for the Beavers, throwing for 2,447 yards, 11 TDs but 13 INTs.

Despite their attempts to become a pass happy offense though, the Beavers move the ball the best when they have that balance. Having backs like Jaquizz Rodgers, Yvenson Bernard and Steven Jackson is what made OSU's offense go.

When they become more one dimensional, they'll put up some yards through the air sure, but they become far easier to defend.

Plain and simple, if Mannion is given time to sit back in the pocket to allow his talented receivers in Marcus Wheaton and James Rodgers get open downfield, it's going to be a long and miserable day for the Bears. The freshman can be pressured into doing bad things when pressured, and the Bears need to bring multiple looks in their pass attack. The looks don't even have to be too complicated, but diversity is key here. Last week Marshall Lobbestael became rattled and inaccurate against the Bears' pass rush, getting hit particularly hard on delayed blitzes.

Here's hoping Clancy Pendergast has some nice things dialed up, especially with Cal's best pass rushers Chris McCain and Dave Wilkerson possibly out with injury.

Pound the Ball
For all of the Beavers' issues on defense, giving up 391.8 yards per game on defense, they have been very good against the pass. I was very impressed with Oregon State's cornerbacks against Stanford's receivers last weekend, and they have shown solid bump and press coverage skills all season long.

Although I have a lot of confidence in Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones, the Bears aren't going to be able to slice and dice it a whole lot through the air. Even if they get some one on one matchups, the Bears are going to need to provide QB Zach Maynard plenty of time to sit in the pocket (or out of it) to hit them accurately. There won't be too much leeway.

However, the Bears may have discovered the key to their offensive success last week in their running game, and witnessed how much it did to open things up for their passing game as well. Fortunately for the Bears, the Beavers rank 10th in the conference in rushing defense, giving up 171.22 yards per game. The Bears need to be creative in their running game, as the Beavers have shown a propensity to give up large yards off the edge, so expect the Bears to continue their run of tosses and fly sweeps.

If the Bears can establish a run game, it will do so much to keep the pressure off Maynard and the passing offense. The less the Bears feel pressured to try and move the chains through the air, the less likely Maynard will force passes and turn the ball over.

Discipline on Returns
The Bears coverage units have been fairly solid this year, but have a tough assignment against OSU's return game this Saturday. Cal has been burned by Beaver returns in the past, and face a unit that leads the conference in average punt return, averaging 18.13 yards per punt and 2 punts returned for TDs this year.

In a game as potentially as horrific as this one, the last thing the Bears need is a huge return to turn the tide to give the Beavers some unnecessary momentum.

Outlook
What can I say? The Bears are favored by nearly 10 points, but all that goes out the window for me when it comes to the Beavers. OSU will find some way to drink Cal's milkshake and then beat us to death with a bowling pin afterwards.

At least, that's what the cynical fan says in me.

The fact remains that the Bears should beat the Beavers if they show any semblance of the team that dominated a decent Utah squad a potentially dangerous WSU squad. If the Bears can get pressure on Mannion and put themselves in situations on offense where they don't have to force the ball through the air, they should handle the Beavers. Should.

But we all know where it could turn out as well.

Prediction
Cal 24
OSU 17