Keys to the Game: Arizona State

Happy Black Friday all. Hope you've enjoyed standing in line for 14 hours for $6 thumb drives and $4 DVDs.

Gosh, it's already the last regular season game of the year for the Bears. LIke every college football season,this season has really flown by. Fortunately, the Bears have locked up bowl eligibility and will be playing at least one more game this season, so all is not lost.

This evening though, the Bears face the Sun Devils, a team with a similar 6-5 record, but one whose season trajectory is far different from the Bears. Cal is 2-1 over the last three games, having dropped a close battle to 9th ranked Stanford last weekend. ASU on the other hand, have dropped three in a row to teams they've all been favored to beat, in most cases by double-digit margins. Things are heated for both fan bases, but the Sun Devils are scrambling to find an answer to their recent woes.

In my Big Game Recap, I stated that this game against the Sun Devils is huge for the Bears in validating that this team truly has shown growth over the course of this season. This year has been all about making strides, and showing themselves as well as their fanbase that they've turned the corner, ready to make a statement in years to come.

Recent performances would indicate that this has been the case, but a loss to the Sun Devils would only affirm the increasing negativity surrounding the direction of the program. A talented group of players who are incapable of winning consistently in the conference, most specifically on the road.

To be blunt, this game is a statement game for the Bears. Win and you've got a lot of positivity going into bowl preparation and for next season. Lose, and well, you have to think it's more or less the same doses of mediocrity.

The game's only a few hours away, so I'll make my keys to the game pretty brief.



Protect the Ball
Ball protection is key in any football game. But the Sun Devils defense lives and dies by turnovers. On the season, ASU has 28 turnovers, second in the conference and lead the conference in overall turnover margin.

However, in their last three losses, the Sun Devils have only forced three turnovers, meanwhile exposing their defense for being incredibly mediocre in some regards, and porous in others. ASU was giving up 381 yards per game in their first 8 games of the season, which is hardly an impressive number. During their three game slide however, they allowed a whopping 515.7 yards per game.

This is an athletic ASU front seven, and they can be physical and vicious. They can also be undisciplined and miss tackles. If the Bears can protect the football, forcing ASU to get stops by limiting yardage and drives, then odds are the Bears will get their chances to move the ball.

Find Mismatches in the Secondary
There's no gentle way to put it. ASU's secondary is bad. They allow 274 yards per game through the air, which is 108th out of 120 teams in FBS football. Having lost their best starting cornerback in Omar Bolden already put ASU behind the eight ball, but ASU's secondary has been pretty generous all season.

Again like the rest of their defense, the Sun Devils are a ball hawking group, notching a respectable 13 interceptions on the year, but like we've seen, when they're not forcing turnovers, this group looks very ordinary.

The Bears need to take advantage of their playmakers on the outside. With Marvin Jones and Keenan Allen, they have one of the best receiving duos in the conference. There will be opportunities. The Bears need to be very intentional about getting their playmakers the ball, unlike the second half of last week in which Allen was held without a catch or a touch.

While there are some depth issues with Cal's receiving corps, here's hoping a returning Coleman Edmond and Jackson Bouza who emerged last week to make some nice catches, can do just enough in creating separation to take some of the pressure off of Allen and Jones.

Back to Basic in Tackling
Other than a few notable exceptions, I thought the Bears' secondary had an uncharacteristic showing last weekend against Stanford, often allowing some slower receiving targets to fly past them into some open territory.

That can't happen this week.

The Sun Devils have the 11th best passing offense in the nation, allowing 314 yards per game. Their offense is a classic air-raid spread, designed around spreading out opposing defenders and finding some open running and passing lanes. It's an offense that can quickly turn a dig route in 40 yard gain.

ASU's Brock Osweiller has solid QB vision, and a quick release, allowing the ball to get out in a hurry.

There are a few schools of thought about defending such offenses, as bring too much pressure opens up the passing lanes for QBs who don't need much time to get the ball out. Conversely, dropping back seven players gives the QB a lot of options as he waits for his receivers to settle into zones for easy passes.

I trust Clancy Pendergast will find the right blitz packages and moments to confuse Osweiller by disguising coverages.

Regardless of which route is taken and when, here's the bottom line: tackling needs to be impeccable. The Bears need to wrap up perfectly, and limit the yards after the catch. This forces the Sun Devils to dink and dunk up the field. This increases the likelihood for ASU's offense to stall, particularly in the red zone, where they've struggled the past few weeks.

This is an urgent note, because for as many good things that Cal's secondary has done this year, tackling hasn't been close to being the top on that list. Marc Anthony is easily the Bears' best tackler in the secondary. Steve Williams is the best cover corner we have, but he often takes bad angles, and has missed some big tackles.

The same can be said about true frosh Stefan McClure who I think actually tackles pretty well for a freshman corner, but he's still been victim to poor technique here and there.

Josh Hill can wrap up pretty well, but he's going to be counted on not biting after the first move in the nickel position.

If the secondary is disciplined in their assignments, ASU's offense can be stopped.

Prediction
You want to think the Bears will roll in this one, as they face a reeling team in Tempe.

However, UCLA 2011 will remind us never to count on beating a team who looks winded going into the game. The Sun Devils have plenty to play for, with a Pac-12 Championship game berth on the line, and it being senior night.

I honestly look at this game as a must win for the Bears. I'm hoping the team does as well. If they're caught in the mindset of patting themselves in the back over a close Big Game losses, the Bears are doomed. Doomed, I say.

But if they use the past several games as confidence, play smart and loose, they've got a real shot at notching the upset. ASU's defense can be had, which just might be the key in scoring enough points to keep up with the Sun Devil offense.

Cal 31
ASU 27