Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Pac-12 Roundup Week 3

A tough week for the Pac-12. Other than the spankings laid to the FCS schools and a few other non-conference wins, some teams fell flat in their marquee non-conference matchups. Here’s the breakdown.

Colorado 28 Colorado St. 14
Lowdown:
The Buffaloes bounced back their loss to California and earned their first win under new coach Jon Embree. It was a close contest throughout, with Colorado putting it away on a long drive late in the game. The CSU Rams held Colorado’s star receiver to just 40+ yards on 2 catches (CSU Secondary > Cal secondary I guess) and bottled up most of the Buffalo attack. Fortunately, the Buffaloes finally got something out of their running game, with Rodney Stewart gaining 98 yards on the ground.

Up Next: The Buffaloes visit the Horseshoe to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes who are out of the Top 25 polls for the first time in forever after falling to Miami over the weekend. The Buckeyes still aren’t anywhere close to their dominant selves, but are going to be pissed and looking to take it out on Colorado. As much as I think CU is improved this year, it’ll be tough sledding against the Buckeyes. I think they make it a game at some point, before their offensive line gets worn down by Ohio State’s front 7. Colorado goes 1-3 to start the year before a critical Pac-12 showdown against Washington State.

UCLA 20 Texas 49
Lowdown:
Things are likely scorching for UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel at this point. The Bruins have fallen to 1-2 on the season after being taken to the woodshed by Texas at the Rose Bowl on Saturday. The Bruins were unable to bounce back from Kevin Prince’s 3 first-quarter interceptions which led to UCLA being put in a 21-0 hole. While the Bruins offense continues to show some life with Richard Brehaut as the QB, the Bruins defense surrendered 448 yards to the Longhorns. UCLA has kept just lowly San Jose State to under 400 yards of offense this season. With fan support fading, you have to think Neuheisel’s time is done in Westwood. I just can’t see UCLA beating five teams in order to get the necessary bowl eligibility.

Up Next: UCLA faces off against winless Oregon State, with the loser taking the new crown as the official basement licker of the Pac-12 conference. This is a critical matchup for all the wrong reasons. OSU’s Mike Riley has far more job security than Neuheisel at this point, but both teams will be equally desperate for the win. You have to think that Oregon State will be favored playing in front of a home crowd, and a bit more rested and healthier after coming off a bye.



Arizona St. 14 Illinois 17
Lowdown:
After a signature win over Missouri, the Sun Devils stumbled on the road against Illinois. Both teams turned out a surprisingly defensive slugfest, but ASU again shot themselves in Sun Devil style with penalties and turnovers. While the loss doesn't do much in their quest to win the Pac-12 south, it certainly hurts their national reputation a bit.

Up Next: The Sun Devils kick off conference play with a bang, facing what would have been Pac-12 favorite USC next week. The game will do a lot in revealing more about who the Sun Devils really are: a decent but inconsistent team, or a solid squad that is working out their kinks for a breakout season. Personally, I think the Sun Devils will certainly be bowl eligible, and good for about 8 wins, though I'm not sold yet that they look like the outright Pac-12 South favorites. USC may be starting to gain their mojo, and I expect the Trojans to pull this one out in Tempe.

Utah 54 BYU 10
Lowdown:
Utah won big their annual rivalry game over BYU. The Utes dominated all phases of the game, but were helped tremendously by BYU's 5 (FIVE!) fumbles. It's hard not to dominate a team when that happens. Utah has been solid defensively all year, and should be one of the better Pac-12 defenses. The offense has still yet to gain any momentum going through the air, but Utah runningback is quietly putting together a very strong season and is currently 8th in the country in rushing yards per game (126 ypg).

Up Next: By the way, I don't know why some think Utah is an at-worst toss up game for us. The Utes look dangerous and could be the Pac-12 favorites this year. Utah has a bye this week, before facing Washington the following week.

Washington 38 Nebraska 5
Lowdown:
The Huskies were undone in a critical fourth quarter with incredibly questionable referee calls and some defensive breakdowns. The game was close up until that point, though after their collapse, trailed the Cornhuskers 44-17 in the fourth. It would have been a tough game for Washington to pull out regardless, though giving up 51 points to any team has to be disheartening.

Up Next: The Bears! Conference play starts for both teams and I'll break this one down further in my Keys to the Game feature.

Oregon 56 Missouri St. 7
Lowdown:
Things are really getting back to normal for the Ducks. Huge yards and points against inferior squads. The Ducks rolled the FCS squad and did it in entertaining fashion, breaking off huge plays and padding stats. Believe it or not though, the Ducks actually trailed in the game, after giving up 7 points on MSU's opening drive. Good thing for them, they never panicked. What resiliency from Kelly's squad.

Up Next: Official investigations! The Ducks received their official notice of investigation from the NCAA, and the likely consequence will either be Kelly's dismissal as head coach and sanctions, or a light slap on the wrist. I'm leaning with the latter. Oh and Oregon starts conference play against Arizona, a team that will be lucky to survive September in any sense. I think Arizona keeps it close through a half again, before the Ducks break away in ridiculous fashion in the 3rd quarter.

Washington St. 24 San Diego St. 42
Lowdown:
Just when the Cougars were on the verge of breaking through with a ridiculous 3-0 start including a win over a San Diego State squad, they saw their 10 point lead dwindle in the fourth quarter, and ended up losing 42-24. Key turnovers and an inability to make clutch plays down the stretch undid a team that had been dreaming of a hypothetical 5-0 start. Still, all is not lost for the Cougars. Although they've shown that they're still far from being a contender in the Pac-12 North, they've affirmed how much they're vastly improved and still very much a threat to knock off some conference teams this year. And this without Jeff Tuel.

Up Next: Wazzu gets a bye this week before facing Colorado the week after to open conference play. That will be an interesting one to watch, as both teams will be eager to prove that they don't belong in the basements of their respective divisions, and looking to make statements. I want to see what Colorado does at Ohio State this weekend before making any predictions, but I have a feeling it'll be competitive.

USC 38 Syracuse 17
Lowdown:
The Trojans finally proved they could put the pedal to the metal and put teams away, though Syracuse wasn't exactly a world beater heading into the contest. Matt Barkley continued to put up solid numbers, throwing for 5 TDs with no interceptions. The Trojans still allowed 258 yards through the air, but that was on 37 attempts from Syracuse. Either way you slice it, the Trojans are 3-0.

Up Next: USC gets a nice gutcheck game with a trip to Arizona State. USC's secondary will have to get its act together for a very potent Sun Devil passing offense, and the Trojans have been shaky defending the pass for a while now. Still, they're favored talent wise, and have a fairly dangerous passing attack of their own. A good matchup will be to watch ASU's pass rush against a talented line that may not have the depth down the stretch to protect Barkley. Still, I like USC here.

Stanford 37 Arizona 10
Lowdown:
Eeesh, I continue to shake my head at Arizona's front schedule The Wildcats kept it close against Stanford, and were a Cardinal pass interference call from taking a 17-16 lead at halftime. Instead, they were shut out in the second half with Andrew Luck heating up and scorching Arizona's secondary 325 yards. Stanford's Stepfan Taylor finally got it going for 150+ yards on the ground as well.

Up Next: For Stanford, they're hurt by injuries including losing star linebacker Shane Skov for the season to a knee injury. Though, the coaches claim they like their depth at the middle linebacker position. I can't imagine you can really get over the loss of your leader on defense that quickly though. Still, I think it'd be a shock not to have the Cardinal be 7-0 heading into their match against USC. Much to my chagrin.

As for Arizona, their focus at this point has got to be to survive with the Ducks coming into town, and a trip to the Coliseum to face USC the week after. Yes, the Wildcats are likely looking at a 1-4 start, though if they keep their confidence through that rough stretch, will see an easier patch of games against some more manageable opponents. If they can pull off an upset at the end of the season against rival ASU, a nice stretch of games could still lead the Wildcats to bowl eligibility at 6-6 in my mind.

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