Thursday, September 8, 2011

Keys to the Game: Colorado

The Bears hope to upend Colorado.
(Kyle Terada/US PRESSWIRE)

Opening game has come and gone, and the Bears hope to keep things rolling along against Colorado this week. The Buffaloes are coming off a loss to Hawaii, but have been known to play significantly differently at home.

The Bears may have some critical advantages over Colorado, but given the Bears' road woes, few should write up the game as an automatic W.

Let's jump to a few quick keys.


Get Maynard into space
Normally, Tedford is a huge proponent for being able to establish a downhill running game. It's just such a critical part of setting up the play action for large offensive gains, and prevents 8+ man fronts.

Unfortunately for the Bears, for all of Colorado's faults, they actually defend pretty well against most downhill rushing attacks. Last week against Hawaii, runningback Joey Iosefa managed just 31 yards on 14 carries (2.2 ypc). That's pretty stout.

However, mobile QB Bryant Moniz shredded the Buffaloes for 121 yards and 3 scores on the same number of carries. It isn't just that Moniz is fast or elusive, but his strength which had him breaking numerous arm tackles for larger gains.

Maynard doesn't have the same level of strength, but may be a tad faster. I like what the Bears were able to do in some of the designed runs for Maynard, and a few zone read plays where Maynard saw the defensive end crashing only to bounce it outside for some larger gains. Continuing to run those plays will help Maynard get positive yardage to extend drives, but also provide enough of a threat to open up some running lanes for Cal's backs as well.

Spread 'Em
Not what you think perverts.

Rather, another way to open up the running lanes and prevent some of the run blitzing we saw last week in the second half against Fresno State is to continue to attack Colorado's defensive backfield through the air.

I may end up really regret saying this, but I don't think too highly of Colorado's defensive backfield. The Buffaloes lost both of their starting cornerbacks last year, and even then the Buffaloes gave up 259.8 passing yards.

Cal should have plenty of opportunities to pressure Colorado's secondary from finding some nice mismatches to getting some of their playmakers into space by spreading the field. The focus will be on the Bears to be precise and play mistake free football. If the Bears can spread out Colorado's secondary and linebackers, they can open up the running lanes for the rushing game and maintain balance.

Dominate the line
First off, Colorado's runningback Rodney Stewart is a good one. Despite being small, he's shifty, strong, and has pretty good balance.

However, Colorado's offensive line is a mess right now, and there's only so much Stewart can do with clogged running lanes. Despite that, Colorado has been pretty adept at running the halfback screen pass as well as the wide receiver screen to counter the stronger pass rushes they've faced.

That could potentially set up a nightmarish situation for the Bears, but defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast likely has some things cooked up to address that. It can be as simple as different zone blitz packages or even assigning a spy on Stewart in some man defenses.

Otherwise, if the Bears can pressure the backfield, they dominate on defense. Plain and simple.

Prediction
I've gone through a wave of different emotions and feelings on this one.

Before the season started, I didn't blink twice in circling Colorado as a win. Then leading up to the opener against Fresno State, I went through my preseason jitters and didn't put it past the Bears to possibly start the season 1-3.

Then once I saw Cal's performance in the opener, as sloppy as it was, I felt pretty good that the Bears had the game in the bag. This feeling was even more affirmed once I saw Coloardo's lackluster performance against Hawaii.

Now that we're late in the week, I feel myself settling down a bit and coping with the reality that the Bears have not proven themselves on the road on a consistent basis. As much as the Bears are a different squad on the road, the Buffaloes are a different team at Boulder.

Still I think the Bears outmatch the Buffaloes in nearly every facet.

I also think the Bears have some of the depth defensively they have had in years, particularly at the critical defensive line position to keep the starters fresh and prevent late game weardown.

A loss would fall largely on the coaches or occur as a result of a huge number of turnovers or special teams breakdowns. If the offense can play turnover free football, I expect the Bears to pull one out.

California 28
Colorado 17


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