Reasons to fear for the worst

This is the first of a two part series reviewing some of the various thoughts floating through my head as we enter the third week of fall camp.

I get asked all the time by friends as to how the Bears will do. I tell them that many days I prepare for the worst, but have many moments where I can’t help but drink the kool-aid.

I’ll talk about reasons for optimism tomorrow, but right now I’m sweating the haterade and present some of the reasons why Cal fans should get the Maalox ready this season. Keep in mind, this is me at the height of my haterificness. I don't necessarily feel like all this is true, but hey, even Jesus' disciples doubted.



5. QB Concerns
Much like the runningback situation, the Bears enter the season with their projected top two quarterbacks being relative unknowns.

I won’t face too much time on this, as this horse has been beaten worse than Georgetown by the Chinese national team, but Cal fans don’t really know what they have with Zach Maynard. They know he played at Buffalo as a sophomore and know he did allllriiiight. Not terrible. Not great. And for some reason, most point to his 400+ yard performance at Pittsburg as an indication that he has the stuff to play against quality teams.

Dude, it’s Pittsburgh.

They also know he’s mobile and athletic. But so many other questions still persist. Can he get those interceptions down? Can he read quality Pac-12 defenses? Can he manage the game? Has he won over the trust and loyalty of the offense through his words, and more importantly, his actions?

Does he have the frame to take the beating he’s likely to receive by Pac-12 defensive players, especially if the Bears plan on using more designed QB runs?

On that note, will Maynard be healthy enough to play 75% of the games this year?

And if Maynard were to stumble, what do the Bears have with Allan Bridgford, who is still just a year removed from rehabbing his surgically repaired throwing shoulder? The sophomore hasn’t gone through fire of seeing any playing time with the Bears either.

And I’m pretty sure that most know what we have with Brock Mansion by now.


4. Runningback Concerns
This story has been beaten nearly to death, yet the guys at California Golden Blogs will tell you, there’s much reason for optimism.

Still, Cal faces unfamiliar territory as its projected one-two punch of juniors Isi Sofele and Covaughn Deboskie Johnson come into the 2011 season with just 90 combined rushes last year for 408 yards and no touchdowns.

Covaughn Deboskie-Johnson: 21 rushes for 70 yards (3.3 ypc)
Isi Sofele: 69 rushes for 338 yards (4.9 ypc)

That makes up the lowest number of touches by a projected starting runningback duo coming into a season since Jahvid Best entered the 2008 season with just 28 rushes the year prior, with Shane Vereen having redshirted.

While there were some questions then, most had been blown away enough by Best’s ability during his freshman campaign to be more excited than worried about the upcoming season.

This is as not as much the case with Sofele and CDJ. While both had been productive in limited touches the past two seasons, neither has elicited enough excitement among the majority of the Cal fanbase to put any doubts to rest.

Questions persist about Sofele’s size and ability to be the “man” as RB1, and fans wait with bated breath to see if CDJ can stay healthy and consistent this season.



Also, the injuries at the fullback position aren’t doing much to abet my fears. Starter Eric Stevens is out for the year, and undersized Will Kapp was in a walking boot last week. While the injury may not be major, we face the strong possibility of walkon third stringers Nic DuMont and John Tyndall seeing a lot of playing time. Again, the same issue with the unknowns.

In any sense, while most know well enough by now to trust in Coach Gould, consider the rushing statistics the past three seasons.

2008: 186.23 yards per game (28th in the nation) with 22 TDs
2009: 169.31 yards per game (42nd in the nation) with 27 TDs
2010: 158.83 yards per game (51st in the nation) with 19 TDs

That’s with Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen as the starters. What will happen a cast of unproven backs?

Plus, none of it may really matter if...

3. ...the Offensive Line disappoints again.
I know, Coach Michalczik is back. Trust me, I’ll get to that.

But, the fact still remains that despite returning most of the starters from last season’s crew, the Cal offensive line has been largely responsible for much of the offense’s deficiencies the past few seasons.

Sacks allowed have increased, and with passing yards and rushing numbers decreasing, many might be wondering if the Bears currently have the personnel to execute the offense with toughness and physical aggression necessary to dominate conference foes.

To make matters worse, depth at the tackle position is approaching code level "We're F'd". Tackle Mitchell Schwartz is solid and proven but the depth really came to light when he missed the entire first week of camp with a leg injury.

Sam DeMartinis decided not to return for his 5th year, Tyler Rigsbee has missed most of camp with injury, and the Bears were down to their third string tackle in Bill Tyndall.

At the other tackle position, Matt Summers-Gavin continues to get work there because of his potential and ability, despite playing most of his time at Cal as a guard. I still am holding my breath a bit, because I’ve long stated that I believe MSG is best suited as a guard, but due to the lack of depth at OT spot, the Bears have little alternative.

The only other non-walkon option is JC transfer Matt Williams, who has much promise, but is still incredibly raw for having only played football for a few years. He has also put on good weight, but could still benefit by putting on another 10-20 pounds.

2. Lack of experience at OLB spots
I’m just as excited as any at the prospect of Dave Wilkerson, Chris McCain, Cecil Whiteside, and Ryan Davis terrorizing the edges this season.

But aside from their talent, they’re all similar in that all lack true experience at the college level. Wilkerson played a bit in a reserve role but had to apply for a medical redshirt after an early injury last season.

All four linebackers will play and will show flashes of talent, no doubt. But how will they do on a weekly basis as they face the zone read against Oregon? The playaction tight end and fullback rollouts against USC? How will they fare against some of the elite tight ends and tackles in the conference?

Despite talent, you simply can’t reproduce experience. I expect great things from these linebackers. But I’d be lying if I didn’t expect a few blown assignments and moments of being lost as well.

1. Funky schedule
Many talk about the novelty of playing at ATT this season, as the Bears play away from Memorial Stadium this season as it undergoes renovation. Coach Tedford has stated that his message to his team has been that of focusing on what happens inside the sidelines regardless of where the Bears play.

But let’s face it, the Bears have a funky season at funky locations.

In continuing with the theme of unknowns, the Bears' time at ATT park will be filled with uncertainties, especially as they have limited practice time there. In fact, I believe they completed their one and only practice there last week other than the weekly walkthroughs when the season starts. As much as coaches and players may say it’s about the game, the Bears have an uphill battle as the team will essentially be playing a road game every week other than having a home crowd for “home games,” playing in an unfamiliar stadium, on unfamiliar turf. It’s just different.

On top of that, the Bears have a tough schedule. They face projected conference division leaders Oregon and Stanford on the road. They play at ASU at a tough time during the year, and unlike most other Pac-12 north teams, play USC and UCLA as well. And don’t count out Utah.

Just taking a look at the schedule, and while one can certainly pencil in more wins than losses, it seems just as easy to go the other way around.

So we'll see...
Again, I'm not saying I necessarily think all this is true. But when I find myself curled up in a ball, sucking my thumb in the corner of my room, I start thinking these depressing thoughts. I'll have my brighter thoughts ready for tomorrow.