Keys to the Game: Fresno State

I can't hide my excitement. College football season is here.

I'm a lot like this kid right now.


It's my first "Keys to the Game" feature for the year, and we start off with a non-conference opponent that I'm not used to previewing. Writing the annual, "Stop the Zone Read against Oregon" feature can get old you know.

No, we start off against the Fresno State Bulldogs, a team that gets a hard-on every time it faces an AQ conference team, in an effort to prove that it belongs with the big boys. You can bet Pat Hill will have his mustache waxed and his boys ready to play.

The question will be how the Bears respond to the Bulldogs' best punch. The team will be fired up, but simply being pumped up can mean very little if the team isn't focused and disciplined (see Stanford last year).

Before we jump into the Keys of the Game, here's a quick lowdown of the Bulldogs.

Fresno State: What you need to know
The FSU Bulldogs finished 8-5 last season after their Humanitarian Bowl loss to Northern Illinois. However, none of their wins came over an FBS team with a winning record. To put it simply, Fresno State beat up most of the fairly terrible WAC teams, and blew their chances against the decent ones (Hawaii, Nevada, and Boise State).

FSU averaged 29 points per game offensively (48th nation) gaining 370.6 yards per game (70th nation). Fresno State runs a fairly balanced offensive attack, as they gained 150.62 yards per game rushing (65th nation) and 220 yards passing (61st nation). All in all, they're ok offensively. Not great, but certainly not terrible.

Things were a bit worse defensively for the Bulldogs, as they allowed 30 points per game (83rd nation) and gave up 40+ points four times during the season in losses to Hawaii, Boise State, Ole Miss, and Northern illinois. The Dogs also allowed 367.2 yards per game (59th nation). 158.46 yards per game came on the ground (66th nation), while they fared a bit better against the pass, giving up 208.8 yards per game (46th nation).

One of the more notable stars and reasons for excitement for Fresno State is quarterback Derek Carr, younger brother of former Fresno State star QB and Tedford protege David Carr. The Bears are going to have to be especially careful of the young gunslinger, as expectations are high in Hicksville for the younger Carr to help lead the Bulldogs to new heights.

Now onto the Keys to the Game.



Pound Mighty Mouse
Runningback Robbie Rouse is the Bulldogs' symbol for production. The diminutive tailback (5'7, 190 lbs) brushed off size concerns last year (Isi Sofele take note) to rush for 1,129 yards last year and 8 touchdowns. He's been affectionately called "Mighty Mouse" by his fanbase and FSU's band plays the theme song after he rips off big plays. And he's had plenty in some big time performances, rushing for 286 yards against La Tech, and 217 yards against Nevada.

Rouse embodies Fresno State's downhill rushing attack that is the bread and butter of their offense. The teams who have been most successful against the Bulldogs are the ones who have been able to bottle up the run. No brainer right?

Check out these numbers in FSU's losses last year:
Rouse: 70 yards (1.8 ypc) in a 51-0 loss to Boise State
Rouse: 22 yards (3.1 ypc) in a 38-55 loss to Ole Miss
Rouse: 43 yards (4.8 ypc) in a 49-27 loss to Hawaii
Rouse: 21 yards (2.3 ypc) in a 40-17 bowl loss to Northern Illinois.

If the Bears can contain Rouse or any of FSU's backs from gashing them for 3-4 yard chunks, they stand a decent chance of getting the Bulldogs off the field, as FSU struggled on third downs last year, converting just 35.39 percent them which was good for 93rd in the nation. Granted, Carr is set to be a better quarterback than last year's Ryan Colburn, but 3rd and 8 is never fun for any quarterback.

Bottom line, if the Bears can get the Bulldogs into obvious passing downs, they give themselves quite a shot.

On a side note, backup runningback Tracy Slocum (remember him?) had 37 carries for 163 yards and 2 scores last season. Good for him.

Jump Out to the Early Lead
There appears to be every indication that the opener will be a smashmouthed, hard-nosed defensive battle. Yet, going along with my previous point, the more the Bears can do to make the Bulldogs a one-dimensional team the better.

One of the best ways? Jump out to an early lead. The Bears are going to want to take the run away from the Bulldogs and make it illogical to continue to run the ball with much frequency as the game progresses.

Fresno State's biggest weakness last year was their turnovers, with a pretty atrocious -0.85 turnover margin on the season. They gained just 13 turnovers last year, while giving away the ball 24 times, mostly on fumbles. If the Bears can score an early turnover, and more importantly, capitalize with a score, the Bulldogs will have to throw their starting QB into the fire a bit more quickly than they would like, and here's hoping that by then, it'll be too little, too late.

Oh, and it doesn't have to be a turnover. A big kickoff or punt return will do just as well. Let's see, who's the Bulldog's new special teams coordinator. Let's see...oh, former Cal special team's coach, Pete Alamar?

"Reeeeeeeeaaaallly?"

If the Bears can rack up a 14+ lead early on, I think they have the depth defensively to hold on. Of course, a lot of this is predicated on the ability for the offense to score points, but that leads me to my final key.

Discipline in the Trenches
If the Bears are going to score at all Saturday, it will depend greatly on the offensive line, specifically their ability to protect Zach Maynard and get his playmakers into space.

The Bulldogs were a good pass rushing their time last year. A really good pass rushing team in fact. They notched 35 sacks last year (12th nation), and 84 tackles for loss (34th nation).

Fresno State's defensive line returns just one starter from last year, but he's a good one. Junior Logan Harrell had 14 tackles for a loss last year, including 10.5 sacks to go with 46 tackles.

Much of what the Bears will hope to do offensively will depend on their ability to hold off Fresno State's pass rush. Everyone from new center starter Dominic Galas to halfback Isi Sofele will need to give Maynard the time he needs to go through his reads, and not force throws. Hurrying a new starting quarterback is the formula for turnovers, which Maynard has shown a propensity to do when flustered.

Outlook
I actually haven't been as confident about the game as most other Cal fans. I think it's going to be a tough game, I really do. I think FSU will get up for this one, may end up having more a home field advantage than the Bears (sadly) and there are far too many questions for the Bears for me to think that the Bulldogs will be anything close to a pushover opener.

Also, don't underestimate the importance of this game to the season. Despite being a non-conference matchup, it sets the tone and gives a fairly good sense of what kind of team the Bears will be this season. Win with confidence, and it's not hard to see a 4-0 start to the season. Lose, and you quickly can see it turn to 1-3, or 2-2. Yes, it could change that quickly.

A friend asked me this morning as to whether we'd beat Fresno State, and I replied that a loss were certainly possible, but FSU was a team we should beat if we came out firing. We outmatch the Bulldogs in terms of talent, but if we can match their intensity, focus and drive, then the Bears should prevail in a tough match. Think Michigan State 2008, but with fewer points.

Prediction
Cal: 27
Fresno State: 20

Oh, and one last thing: Go Bears!