Just How Good Will Shane Vereen Be?

SKYLER REID/FILE

“Shane Vereen is coming back, and he can carry the load. I think he has proven that.” Cal coach Jeff Tedford

In a college football offseason devoid of much meaningful Cal football news, Shane Vereen seems to be all over the place these days.

First, I caught wind that Vereen was following in his old man’s footsteps somewhat by working towards a possible future in sports broadcasting by interning at CSN Bay Area. Unlike his dad though, he may want to get in on the commentating/broadcasting side though. Good for Shane.

Then, the Cal football contingent caught wind that Vereen was snubbed by ESPN Ted Miller’s Annual Top 25 Conference Players List. Surely, it must have been an oversight in an otherwise long line of excellent work from Miller. Thinking though, that Ted Miller’s actual opinion was that there were 25 players better than Vereen, we Cal fans were pissed.

Being the well balanced fan that I am though, I started to get over it, until today, when Miller explained his rationale:.

“Polk and California's Shane Vereen pushed each other out of the list. Both had good but not great numbers. How could you include one and not the other?” -Ted Miller.

Hmm, good, but not great, eh? That was an interesting point, and one worth considering further. After locking myself in blog chamber (my bathroom) for a few hours, I began to eventually wrestle with the question that’s on a lot of fans’ minds, which is, “How good will Shane Vereen actually be?”

It’s worth noting that Vereen is hardly an unknown commodity. While Vereen has gotten plenty of reps in the backup role behind Jahvid Best for the last two years, he was the starter for the back third of the 2009 season after Best’s season ending injury. So it isn’t as if Cal fans don’t know what Vereen is capable of.

No, rather the question focuses on what Vereen will likely do on the field this year. We’ve seen what he can produce in spot duty, and the starter over part of a season, but how might those numbers be extrapolated over the course of an entire season as a number one back? It’s likely his yards per carry might drop (they usually do for backs making the transition from backup to starters), but by how much? How many yards will Vereen finish with by season’s end, and how will that compare to the line of quality Cal backs that have preceded him?


Vereen's Qualities
Before we launch into projecting stats, it’s worth quickly reviewing some of Vereen’s features as a back.

Vereen isn’t the largest back (5’10, 199 pounds according to CalBears.com) but has enough size to show durability and toughness in the trenches. He won’t move many piles on his own, but is a fearless worker between the tackles and has enough strength and aggressiveness to stay with the play to either break free from an arm tackle or wait for his offensive linemen to arrive and push forward for a few yards.

On a pure talent level, Vereen has everything you could want in a back. He’s shifty, changes direction with ease and finds holes in the defense. When he’s through the line, he kicks into a higher gear and is capable of rip off long runs.

Also, it’s worth noting that Vereen runs with many of the qualities that runningback coach Ron Gould preaches for every back: falling forward, crabwalking for extra yards, that extra half second of patience in waiting for cutback lanes, low pad level, etc…He just might be that prototypical back of the Gould school.

However, Vereen’s biggest strength is also coincidentally his biggest flaw: he does all things very well, but isn’t quite as spectacular in any one category. He is incredibly fast, but isn’t quite as likely to break as many runs as Jahvid Best. He’s probably a bit stronger than Best, but lacks the ferocity and sheer strength as Marshawn Lynch. He’s elusive, but isn’t quite as shifty and balanced as Justin Forsett. He has incredible vision, but hits the hole a step slower than JJ Arrington.

With all that said, I truly believe that Vereen might be the most balanced and complete back to play for the Bears during Tedford’s era. He doesn’t have any real glaring weaknesses. In addition to all of the aforementioned qualities, he’s above average in pass protection, and is just as much of a receiving threat as any back that has preceded him with the exception of perhaps Marshawn Lynch.

The question now is how all that might translate in terms of production in a full season as a starter.

The Yardage Number
Let’s take a look at Vereen’s stats from last year, courtesy of ESPN. (Click to expand)

Just by looking at the numbers at a cursory level, we should really pay attention to the games in which Vereen started, beginning with the Arizona game. In those four games as a starter, Vereen averaged 27 carries, and a terrific 141.5 yards per game.

Here’s a visual look at those stats for those interested.

To make the best sense of this, it is best to look at these numbers in context to the number of carries that Vereen received in these games. A single carry, 2 yard performance against Arizona State doesn’t reveal much.

What we can really deduce from this is that Vereen does best when he gets a healthy share of carries. He’s done his best work when he gets at least 15 carries. In all five games in which that’s happened (UCLA, AZ, Stan, Wash, Utah), he had his best yards per carry (5.8), and was most productive in terms of yardage gained (144 ypg). In each of those performances too, he broke off his longest runs of the season.

Conversely, Vereen’s weakest outings were ones in which he was limited to less than 10 carries. This would make sense in terms of yardage, but his yards per carry numbers also dropped as well.

It’s likely that his ypc numbers would drop in the games where he received fewer carries because he faced off against the more elite defenses in the conference (USC, OSU). There are enough examples to refute this hypothesis however (Minnesota, Eastern Washington), so it might actually be the case that Vereen runs harder and more productively the more carries he gets. It would fit in well with that workhorse type of mentality that Vereen has demonstrated in his brief time as a starter. The numbers show it: give Vereen a starter’s portion of carries (ie. at least 15 carries a game), and he’s more than likely to give you 100 ypg and at least 5.0 ypc.

Number of Carries
On that note, the conversation switches a bit to how many carries Vereen should expect to get each game. The coaching staff is obviously confident giving Vereen the rock (see Big Game 09), but is wary of overworking Vereen given his importance to the team so are unlikely to let him endure any more 40+ carry games (see Big Game 09).

Also, it’s worth noting that unlike the previous two years, the coaching staff isn’t as sold on any one backup tailback. 2010 might be more akin to the 2007 season, in which the unquestionable starter takes on more carries than previous starting backs, while two backs shuffle in splitting the backup carries.

Here’s a quick look back at the number of carries for each starter the past few seasons.

Justin Forsett averaged a ridiculous 23 carries per game in his senior season. Remember, that the coaches lacked enough confidence in either Best or Montgomery to take enough of the load off Forsett. At that point, Forsett was that much more reliable of a back.

Compared to Forsett, Jahvid Best carried the ball a “measly” 16.2 carries per game in his sophomore season as a starter and 16.5 carries per game his junior season (not counting the OSU game).

Even Marshawn “Beastmode” Lynch averaged 19.6 carries per game in his sophomore season and 17.1 carries per game in his junior season (though these number were likely reduced because of injury.)

Given this history, and Vereen’s propensity to succeed with enough carries, it’s not ridiculous to think that Vereen might carry the ball on average anywhere from 16 – 20 times per game, with my intuition thinking it’ll be closer to the latter. Don’t expect Vereen to consistently get 27 carries per game like he did in the final four games of the season though.

Receiving Yards
I won’t spend as much time here, because these numbers are a bit simpler to break down, but Vereen is a very good receiver, and is again set to be productive catching the ball this season.

Whether catching the ball out of the backfield, or lining up out wide as a receiver, look for Vereen to get anywhere from 20 – 30 catches, and somewhere in the range of 200+ yards on the season. While his routes aren’t quite as polished as Best’s, he’s still one of the team’s fastest players and consequently best deep threats, so look for him to get a couple of shots on some fly patterns as well as a number of swing passes.

Return Game
Short and simple: I’m hoping the Bears look to other options at the kick returner position (and they probably will). And it’s not for a lack of production. Vereen averaged nearly 23 yards per return, and was the Bears’ safest option at the position.

But with the projected increased workload, and his importance to the team, I’d like to see Isi Sofele and another player (perhaps an incoming freshman like Coleman Edward) get a shot at the KR spot.

Let Vereen get mentally ready, and bring him in ready to work on first down.

2010 Yardage Projection
I’m going out on a complete limb here. There are too many factors (the emergence of a backup RB, offensive line strength, etc) to make this any kind of accurate projection.

On one hand, I don’t expect Vereen to consistently rip off a 140+ yard per game performance throughout the entirety of the season. The season is simply too long for the coaching staff to subject Vereen to that much abuse.

On the other hand, I do see them relying on Vereen a bit more than they did Best, and based on his predictably increased workload, it’s not far fetched to imagine Vereen to carry the ball 20+ times a game.

I will say for kicks and giggles, that assuming Vereen can stay healthy, I foresee Vereen rushing anywhere 1320 to 1560 yards this season. If I had to be held to one number, I’d say 1450 yards for Vereen in 2010.

Yeah, I know it’s a big number. It’d be one of the best single seasons for a Cal back ever. But we’ve seen what he can do when the load’s on him. And the numbers can be extrapolated to support my projection quite nicely.

Bottom Line
Vereen has everything you want in a back. He’s probably escaped much national spotlight because he isn’t quite a beast in any one category, and because he’s played behind Best the past few years, but that will likely change by mid season come fall.

He’s a complete back, and a workhorse that will give your production with enough patience and the occasional highlight reel play. The closest conference back that I can think of that provides a similar type of play, tenacity and importance to his respective team is probably Jacquizz Rodgers (which is saying a lot because I think Quizz is an absolute stud of a player).

I’m hoping and predicting Vereen will establish himself as one of the premier backs in the conference as well as one of the top backs in Cal history. Heck, the numbers don’t lie. If Vereen continues to stay consistent, he may end up being Cal’s all-time leading back when it’s all said and done.

Let’s just see how good he can be this year.

“He’s a proven guy – a guy that I know is going to give us everything he has.”
Cal running backs coach Ron Gould.