Keys to the Game: Oregon State 2009

Dah. I had a far more extensive writeup previewing the huge upcoming game (conference repercussions are big on this one folks) planned for this one, but life got in the way.

So I'll have to make this shorter than usual. Here's the skinny: The Bears are coming off a 3 game winning streak after face planting earlier in the season against the conference's elite in Oregon and USC in back to back drubbings. While they've rebounded nicely since then, most recognize they've faced teams that are expected to finish in the Pac-10 conference this year.

The competition gets much stiffer as they face an Oregon State squad that always seems to play its best football in the second half of the season. Even without their usual late season momentum, the Beavers present themselves as dangerous opponents for the Bears. One, their offensive prowess is enough to scare most Bear fans, and their penchant for having the Bears numbers in recent years, winning two in a row and every contest in Memorial Stadium while Tedford's been the head honcho here is enough to make you feel squeamish headed into Saturday's contest.

The Vegas oddmakers have the Bears favored by about a touchdown in what's expected to be a shootout with both teams featuring suspect pass defenses, red hot QBs, and explosive running games. The Bears will face their toughest challenge since their meltdowns against the Ducks and the Trojans, but can most certainly pull off a win with perfect focus and execution of a few items.


Defensively, I was a bit surprised as to how similar Cal and Oregon State were statistically.
There really isn’t too much separating the defenses. The most obvious trends are that both teams have struggled in the giving up chunks of passing yardage, but different reasons. While most on the team are trying to wrap their heads around why such a veteran secondary has struggled to match last year’s defensive numbers (much of it being execution and focus), the Beavers knew they had their work cut out for them after having to replace three starters in the secondary who are now in the NFL.

In watching some basic highlight footage of the Beavs, it appears they do their most damage over the middle of the field, specifically in hitting either of the Rodgers brothers in screen passes against an aggressive pass rush. You saw this most notably against USC a few weeks ago, as the Trojans really brought the heat on Canfield, but were burned badly a number of times after Jacquizz Rodgers snuck out them for some easy gains. Some shoddy tackling allowed Rodgers to again have a big day for OSU.

While I would normally advocate for a heavy pass rush against inexperienced QBs, Canfield most certainly doesn’t fall into that category right now. Simply sending more men at the QB hasn’t been too effective for the Bears in recent weeks and could be absolutely disastrous against OSU.

I’m not saying we should try to pressure Canfield, but I think the Bears will need to be much more judicious with when and how we bring pressure. I’ve asked for different types of blitzes such as delayed or corner blitzes in past weeks, and would like to continue to see some diversity in the pass rush play calling. And when the Bears do blitz, they’re going to have to be incredibly disciplined and tuned in on all their coverage assignments, with one defender spying on Jacquizz at all times.

But I also believe that playing tighter coverage in the secondary will eventually allow the Bears’ talented defensive line the time to get pressure on Canfield without having to compromise huge chunks of the field by dedicating more defenders to rushing the passer.

It’s also interesting to note that a good chunk of OSU’s yardage came after the catch after Beavers receivers were able to slip defenders. And by Beavers’ receivers, I’m primarily referring to both the Rodgers brothers who together account for 1078 receiving yards already on the season. Both players are incredibly shifty and deceivingly strong, so that even the most physical defenders struggle to get them at first contact. This in itself might be the biggest physical challenge for Cal on Saturday.

In sum, given the opponent, I actually think this is one week where Bob Gregory’s typical game plan of keeping the ball in front of the defender and forcing long drives might actually the Bears’ best shot at winning this game.

If the Bears can demonstrate the proper technique to wrap up the ball carriers or receivers upon contact and keep them in front, they might be able to avoid giving up the big plays as they have had the penchant of doing in nearly every game this season.

I fully expect the combined score to at least get into the 50s, and think the Bears’s offense might be able to put up the necessary points on OSU’s defense if they can get into a rhythm early. The onus will fall on Cal’s defense to limit the OSU offense into settling for field goals and grinding it out for chunks of yards. If Cal can keep OSU in the low twenty’s scoring wise, they’ve got a good shot at the win. Otherwise, the Bears offense would need to go absolutely ballistic to keep up, needing 40+ points for the W.

Prediction
Cal 31 OSU 27