Keys to the Game: Big Game 2009

It’s the Big Game Week folks!

And for the first time in a long time (since Tedford has taken over head coaching duties really), the Bears are the underdogs, understandable given the back to back drubbings the Cardinal have given to both Oregon and USC. Most Cal fans might remember that these two teams were the ones to beat Cal by a combined score of 76-6 in back to back weeks. Think back really. You ‘member? You ‘membeeeerrrr!!!

Relax Cal fans. Fortunately, comparing similar opponents ain’t the really way to evaluate teams in college football. But as much as we’re all likely still a bit giddy over the Bears’ defensive performance against Arizona (holding one of the conference’s top offense to just 274 yards), the truth is that the Bears have their hands full because of how improved and at times dominant Stanford has looked, particularly on offense.

Bring it to their O-line
Obviously, the first aspect of the Cardinal offense that jumps out to you is their power rushing attack led by the bruising Toby Gerhart who has been nothing short of outstanding this year. Stanford is 2nd in the conference in rushing yards, averaging 222 yards per game on the ground, with Gerhart accounting for about 139 yards per game. Watching their games against both Oregon and USC, I was stunned at how easily they were winning at the line of scrimmage, which speaks more to the strengths of their offensive line than anything else. Particularly against USC, Stanford was pushing back the Trojan front line for at least two yards on most rushing plays before Gerhart was even touched. Even the backup Stepfan Taylor was ripping off huge gains. Simply put, Stanford’s offensive line dominated in the trenches.


If the Bears are going to have any shot in slowing down the running game, the first point of attack is to clearly take this head on. Fortunately, the Bears have one of the better run defenses in the conference, currently allowing just 103.8 yards per game and a conference best 3.12 yards per carry. Typically, the Bears’ run defenses under the 3-4 have performed pretty well, with the occasional aberrations. While the strategy may not be anything too creative, the Bears are going to have to come out and play their most physical game of the season. It will be a combination of a nasty and angry mindset, as well as nearly perfect execution in technique to wrap up and tackle. Gap assignments will have to be followed to a T, and there has got to be an urgency on every play to shed blocks and swarm to the ball. Gerhart won’t go down at first contact, but the Bears’ speed on defense might help their gang tackling efforts enough that the first defender won’t have to wait too long for their help to get there.

In sum, this defense has to play like their hair is on fire when it comes to containing this running game. Hold Gerhart to about 125 rushing yards, and you’ve got a real shot at this one.

Watch Out for Luck
However, what makes Stanford’s offense that much scarier than last year’s version, is not only the improved play from their offensive line, but also the fact that they have a talented quarterback in Andrew Luck that can keep opposing defenses honest in more ways than one.

Stanford has transitioned from being a one-dimensional physical power running team, to one that is now complemented by a fairly efficient passing attack. Luck has the physical tools to take advantage of some of the one-on-one matchups created when opposing defenses stack the box, and also hurt you with quick efficient strikes over the middle. I’ve seen this specifically in the redzone several times this year, where Stanford is third in the conference in redzone TD conversions.

Luck also possesses the mobility and speed to tuck the ball and go when his passing picture is looking bleak. As dangerous as Nick Foles was last week, he wasn’t nearly the running threat that Luck will be on Saturday.

So what can you do against such a passing attack? Normally, you’d send the house on an inexperienced redshirt frosh QB. Pressure him into making bad decisions. Or you could always choose to rush three, drop defenders back and bait the QB into passing into dangerous zones.

But I’m really liking what I saw with last week’s gameplan against Arizona which featured a good combination of press man defenses, and zone coverages. A lot of times they would sell zone, before running up at jamming at the line of scrimmage. It was enough to throw Foles off to hold onto the ball a little bit longer than he would have liked to. Also, given Luck’s mobility, it’s not a situation where you want to constantly drop back and given 6-8 yards of running space, so I’d lean towards a bit more pressure than last week. I guess I’m trying to say is that a combination with a slightly more aggressive plan on pressuring the QB than last week. Yeah. That should do.

Avoid Special Teams Snaffus
Earlier in the year, I specifically stated that I felt that our special teams would cost us at least one game this year. Our losses so far have been such systematic failures, that it’s been difficult, or impossible rather, to pin it on just one unit.

Saturday might be the day though, that my prediction comes true. Stanford’s Chris Owusu leads the conference with in kickoff return yards, averaging 34.1 yards per return, having already run back three for scores. Conversely, the Bears are eighth in the conference, only managing 59.22 yards per kickoff.

You do the math. Ok, I will.
100 (yards on the field)
- 30 (where the ball is placed for kickoffs)
- 59.22 (average Cal kickoff)
= 10.88 (average opponent starting field position)

Now add Stanford’s average 34.1 yard per return, and voila, you’ve got an average starting field position of the 44 yard line. Hurray!

Ok, we know it’s not that simple. And while kickoffs have improved, kickoff returns have regressed. And I’m also scared at how close teams have gotten on blocking one of our punts. I’m also concerned at how absolute inability for our hawks to block off opposing teams’ gunners.

A special team snafu could be the difference in a game as funky as a rivalry game. What else can you do other than pray? And hope people stay disciplined in their individual assignments? Jeebus.

Win in the trenches…on Offense too
In general, Stanford’s defense hasn’t been too impressive as a whole to me. Yes, they had a great day against USC, but that Trojan team was so demoralized from being run over, it’s hard to effectively gauge that one performance. The Cardinal are ranked pretty similar to Cal’s defense in a lot of categories, which is pedestrian at best. The major difference is that their secondary defensive numbers are slightly better than the Bears’, while their rushing defensive numbers are slightly worse.

So this is less about them, then it is about us. As much as you scratch your head, the Bears’ ability to move the ball and score in nearly correlated a hundred percent to their offensive line’s performance. If the Bears can get enough of a push off the ball to pave some running lanes for Vereen, and give Riley enough time that he doesn’t feel pressured to making some of the throws he made against AZ last week, the Bears will be able to score on the Stanford defense. And they can score quite a bit actually.

But the big question is whether that will happen. Here’s hoping they come in angry, with something to prove. Here’s hoping that linemen are knocking linemen down, and looking for someone else to immediately bowl over. Here’s hoping that they’re rushing to piles, pancaking DBs who attempt to stuff end arounds and HB tosses. Here’s hoping they’re nasty. If not, then well, we don’t score. Yay.

Prediction
Both teams can score. It will come down to the battle in the trenches on both sides to see how much each team will score by. I’m still feeling not too great about this one in all honesty, but would absolutely ecstatic to beat this specific Stanford team. I think it would mean a great deal about the strength and resolve of ours.

Oh and it would feel great to derail their season. Just a little.

Stanford 31 Cal 24