My Tiny Contribution to Diablo Magazine

Just giving my readers a heads up that I was recently featured (very briefly) in a short Diablo Magazine writeup regarding Jahvid Best and his future at Cal and/or the NFL. They refer to me as one of their "sports authorities." Bwahahah.

You can read the full article here, as they also have some responses from Jonathan Okanes, Larry Beil, among others.

They actually only took one short quote from me, which made me seem like more of a fanboy Niners/Bears fan than anything else. Here's my part of small contribution when asked whether I thought Best would return for his senior year or take his chances with the NFL Draft.

"I’d consider it unlikely that Best will return for his senior year. I’d love to see the 49ers take Best, after passing up on what I thought were two obvious draft errors involving Cal players—picking Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers and passing up on DeSean Jackson twice."

Again, that was actually only my partial response to the lengthier question of where I thought Best would end up. Since they only used part of my responses, I thought I'd share my full set of answers to my loyal readers. You can check them out after the jump.

Keep in mind that we were all asked these questions weeks ago, well before Best's likely season ending injury in the Oregon State game, so our responses might be far different if we were asked the same questions today.


1. Do you think Jahvid Best will return and play his senior year at Cal? If so, what kind of season will he have?
At this point, I'd consider it highly unlikely that Best would return for his senior year. Of course, a lot could happen between now and then, but if most draft analysts have him projected anywhere in the first round, it would be hard for me to imagine that Best would stick around.

And much of this speculation is because of the very idea that other than helping his team getting into the Rose Bowl, or having more standout performances in bigger games, thereby strengthening a Heisman campaign, it's unlikely that Best would have a substantially different year in his senior season. In his past three years at Cal, he has battled injury issues (while not quite being injury prone, there is a difference), while showing playmaking abilities and also struggling in some bigger games against elite opponents.

It's difficult to say whether any of the above would see a dramatic turnaround his senior year. He would likely again be a consensus pre-season All-American, a possible first round pick while again rushing for about 1500 yards and 15 touchdowns.

2. What chance is there that Best will enter the NFL draft after this season? If he does, when would he be drafted, and what team would you like to see him play for?
During Cal's first few wins, Best was getting serious consideration as likely being the top back taken in the draft. His performance during Cal's two losses may have affected his stock a bit however. Best still struggles a bit picking up pass rushers in pass protection, and hasn't developed enough of a tough inside running game to be the obvious top runningback candidate at this point. His playmaking ability and speed is enough for most teams looking for a second change-of-pace tailback refrain from passing on him twice in the draft though.

I would say late first round, early second round. But if Best averages 150 yards a game the rest of the way through, and puts on a clinic during the combine, we could be talking about mid-first round consideration.

Personally, as a Niners fan, I'd love to see the 49ers take Best after passing up on what I thought were two obvious draft errors involving previous Cal players (picking Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers and passing up on Desean Jackson twice). But Mike Singletary's offensive mindset doesn't seem to be a good fit for Best. He might fit in as a nice change of pace back with Green Bay or Pittsburgh.

3. Where will Best rank in Cal football history?
Best will undoubtedly go down one of the most explosive and biggest playmakers to ever play for the Bears. He just might have one of the best individual highlight reels, hands down.

The biggest knock on Best might be that his biggest runs rarely came in the most dire of circumstances. Other than perhaps the Emerald Bowl, none of his greatest rushing performances came against elite defenses or in the most critical moments of games. Most of his most spectacular runs came against slightly inferior opponents and in moments that were important, but not quite game changing. A 55 yard touchdown run late in the game to upset the Trojans 28-26 in Memorial Stadium this year might have changed things. Alas, we are without such Jahvid Best moments.

While a bit of the inconsistency might stop Best from unequivocally staking claim in being the top Cal runningback of all time, it says an enormous amount that he is even in such a discussion.
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Big Game Recap 2009

(Mmm...tastes so good.)

“All week long the talk was about how physical they are, how they were going to run the ball on us, things like that. Our motto all week was, ‘We’re going to find out on the field.”’
-Cal Coach Jeff Tedford

Ok, I think I’ve settled down enough to be able to write this with some bit of rational thought. I think I’ve got it all out of my system. Here we go.

WOOOOOOOOO!!!

Blog post fail.

Let’s try this again.

Saturday’s game was a classic, and for all the right reasons. It was an emotional roller coaster of a hard-fought rivalry game, filled with inspiring individual performances, gritty team play, that came down to a stunner of an ending when Cal LB intercepted Andrew Luck on what would have been the game winning pass.

It was a fitting conclusion for the perfect game to match the Big Game hype that preceded the contest. The rivalry that had become nearly inconsequential for one team in terms of conference standings for much of the last decade had made itself relevant again. The Big Game was a contest, one in which the outcome was in question until nearly the last play. In a sense, it was how it should be: exciting and significant.

But more than just excitement, I felt an enormous level of pride. I would be hardpressed to think of a time when I was as proud of this team as I was on Saturday. Down 14-0 early in the first quarter, it would have been all too easy for this team to fold it up. It could have been almost permissible for the team to roll their eyes, begrudgingly put on their helmets and go, “Man, it’s going to be one of these games again.”

But the Bears never quit, and they never died. They battled back and played inspiring ball to score 24 straight points through the next three quarters. They fought together and held off a furious late rally by Stanford to seal the game and keep the axe.

In a way, it was indicative of the Bears’ season. After two nightmarish performances early on in the year against Oregon and USC, almost everyone had ruled the Bears out. The Bears could only count on themselves. They stuck together when the bandwagon was nearly empty save for a few confused stragglers, and proved their fortitude to themselves.

Let’s get to some specifics.


Let’s Clap the Defense Off the Field
The defense has shown over the last two weeks that they're capable of playing to heightened preseason expectations.

Following a solid performance against Arizona’s offense, I knew the Bears’ defense would have to play one of their best games of the season against a Stanford offense that had been at the top of standings in nearly every offensive statistically category. Well they topped it by playing their most complete game of the season.

Sure, some numbers might jump out at you. Actually just one really, Toby Gerhart’s 20 rushes for 136 yards and 3 TDs. But everyone expected Gerhart to do some damage. Take away his 61 yard run (yes I know you can’t do that, but let me make my point), Gerhart ran 19 times for 75 yards for a 3.94 ypc average. Mediocre by his standards. I thought by and large the Bears did a fantastic job in limiting Gerhart, save for a few bad angles and botched tackles. I wrote in my Keys to the Game, that we would have a real shot at winning this game if we kept Gerhart under 125 yards. Pretty close.

But all in all, Stanford was held to just 345 total yards of offense. While that in itself isn't amazing, it because a bit more special when one considers that this offense had just rolled up 505 yards and 55 points against the Ducks and 469 yards and 51 points against the Trojans.

Stanford's Passing Woes

Stanford QB Andrew Luck was held to a miserable 10-30 passing performance for 157 yards and an INT. Again, like last week's win over Arizona, I absolutely loved what I saw from the Cal pass defense. Other than a blown coverages, the Bears did an excellent job of mixing up zone and man, and never allowed Andrew Luck to really get comfortable in reading the coverages.

The secondary also benefited greatly from some good pressure on Andrew Luck. While the Bears didn't ever record any sacks (although Luck had some botched snaps), the Bears did a great job of flushing Andrew Luck out of the pocket, and generally disrupting his rhythm. On a number of occasions, you could tell he threw the ball much earlier than he or his receivers wanted, because he felt the pressure coming. One might recall a specific play that Luck tried to zip the ball to Toby Gerhart on 3rd down because he was trying to avoid the sack. Gerhart hadn't even turned around his head.

All in all, I'm surprised Stanford decided to pass as much as they did. I know they were down, but I'm shocked that they had Luck throw the ball 30 times, especially given that it was evident early on that it simply wasn't going to be his night. But hey, that's their call, not mine.

Finally, while there were some great individual defensive performances on Saturday, let's give it up for Mike Mohammed who is far and away the best linebacker playing for the Bears right now. While he hasn't excelled in one particular area, he's always been solid in nearly every phase of the game, and bounced back from the missed tackle on Gerhart in the waning moments of the game to notch the game winning interception. Oh and he notched another 10 tackles to solidify his position as the leading tackler in the conference. He's on pace to have the most number of tackles for a Cal defender since Desmond Bishop's insane number of 126 back in 2006.

Offense Rolls
Watching the offense roll on Saturday, you got a bit of a sense that the product on the field was exactly how Coach Tedford envisions his offense: a balanced offense that protects the ball, controls the line of scrimmage, and run or set up short passes on first and second to set yourself up for some manageable third downs and some play actions.

Cal did exactly that on offense, and you couldn’t argue with the results. The Bears put up 34 points, owned the time of possession category, holding the ball for 39 minutes to Stanford’s 21, and were 11 for 19 on third downs (58%), after coming into the game averaging just 35%. The Bears also played their most balanced game on offense all season, rolling up 477 yards (242 rushing and 235 passing). You couldn’t have written it up much better.

It all started with the offensive line. The o-line got a good push on most running plays, and opened up running lanes long enough for Vereen to quickly push forward for two to three yards each time, allowing for some favorable and easily convertible third downs. This created less strain on the passing game, as Riley wasn’t expected to launch as many low probability passes, and could help march his team down on shorter patterns. More on the passing game in just a second.

Also, the Bears played a pretty mistake free game on offense, with just two penalties. As a coach, you’ve got to be thrilled when your team comes out and plays that efficiently without any drive-killing errors.

Passing Game
Early on, it looked like the Bears passing game was going to shoot itself in the foot. I counted at least four dropped passes in the first half, all of which were critical to either move the chains and one that could have been for a touchdown. Riley was just 7 for 18 for 89 yards and an INT.

The entire passing offense collected themselves at halftime though, and came out firing in the second half. Riley finished 10 of 13 for 146 yards and a TD. The entire receiving corps came up with one clutch over another, with Miller, Ross, Lagemann, and Jones all coming up with critical grabs. Not only was it a step up in performance, but I thought the playcalling on passing down were much more suited for the Bears’ receiving corps to hurt Stanford’s secondary. I noticed a number of plays in which Riley was given the opportunity to roll out of the pocket, and hit quicker and shorter passes (curls, outs, slants, etc). These were far more effective than what we had seen in games when Cal’s passing offense struggled, where it appeared the playbook consisted solely of deep balls or screens. It also didn’t force the offensive line to sustain their blocks nearly as long, limiting the probability of some coverage sacks that have hurt the Bears this season.

And again, props to the offensive line. They didn’t allow a single sack, which is the first time in—well a while, that I can say that.

Run Shane, Run
My goodness. How impressive was Shane Vereen’s performance on Saturday? Last year, I was giddy over Jahvid Best’s game which followed in the tradition of some big individual Big Game rushing performances (19 carries for 201 yards and 3 TDs). Saturday night, I was simply impressed.

Shane Vereen had jawdropping 42 carries for 193 yards and 3 TDs. His performance has already named him the Walter Camp Foundation national offensive player of the week, and made him one of the four nominees for the AT&T ESPN All-America Player of the week.

More than just his numbers though, it was the absolute tenacity and drive with which Vereen ran the ball that was so impressive. He never appeared to quit or allow himself to go down without stretching forward for each inch or yard, and despite a number of instances in which he was caught at the line of scrimmage, would crab walk or crawl forward for anything he could get to keep the drive alive. It was an inspiring performance for the ages. Years from now, we’ll talk about how Vereen gashed the Stanford defense, when he carried the ball like, 70 times. Yeh, it was that good of day for Vereen.

Special Teams
Again, if there was one aspect of the Bears that induced any perpetual head-shaking, it was the special teams unit.

I've been saying that the Bears were due for a blocked punt, and sure enough the Cardinal got in on one Saturday. That led to an easy score as Stanford started their next drive from the Bears 19 yard line. Down 14-0, it could have been it for the Bears.

And look, I get the squib kick special. With Owusu back there, you don't want to risk anything. But at the same time, if you're going to gamble with it, you better sure as heck make sure you're going to nail a blocker in the chest each time, or you're dancing with fire.

More than anything though, I think such a strategy is simple proof at the lack of confidence right now with this unit. Other than Anger's consistency, this unit hasn't seen any real consistent improvement over this season. My biggest beef is real with the return coverage unit, which continues to be an absolute liability for this team. I stated after the Minnesota game this year that this unit would cost the Bears a game this year. We're certainly fortunate that Saturday wasn't the day.

The Coaching Call
Just a quick thought about the decision to take a kneeldown to line up for the field goal late in the game. I've heard varying thoughts on it, from the biggest Negative Nancies calling the call gutless, to the more Positive Paulie's understanding the conservative call.

Personally, I didn't like it too much, but I understood it. With the game the defense had been playing, you trust them to put hold off Stanford with the Cardinal out of timeouts. But given that Special Teams had been struggling, you did have to consider the option of a big runback.

More than anything, I thought the Bears most certainly could take at least a moderate shot at the first down without really much risk. Even a simple draw play, or a run up to the weakside gets you an additional yard or two, and allows you to center the ball. The biggest risk was a fumble which wasn't even in Vereen's dictionary that night. With the way the offense was moving the ball, I would have liked to have seen some effort (albeit a conservative one) to take one last shot at picking up the first. I thought the benefits of potentially putting the game away was far greater than the risk that Stanford might force a turnover and start their drive at the 15 yard line.

At the end of the day, Cal won, so you can't really argue too much with it. Again, I understood the call, but wasn't too pleased. But heck, I wasn't pleased with all of Bill Walsh's calls either, and I was a youngin then.

Moving Forward
I don't know about you, but I'm still going to savor this win for a few more days before resorting back to typical Cal fan panic mode and declaring a Washington loss.

[Editor's note: I'll be honest, I've recently been predicting losses in hopes that the opposite might happen. So far I'm 2-2 after switching to this strategy so I might have to predict a Washington blowout.]

We can sort out the bowl situation later, as much of it is out of the Bears' control. As it stands now, I'm learning to enjoy and take pride in the way the Bears have responded this season.

They're currently 8-3, 5-3 in the conference, a nationally ranked team, and in prime position to move into the Top 15 assuming they can win out. A 10 win season is impressive no matter how you slice, and made even better when you consider it means they would have gone 5-1 on the road, with wins at Stanford and UCLA.

As I said earlier, I'm darned proud of this team, and will continue to savor one of the best Big Game experiences of the last decades.
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Rankings Update: Week 13

The most recent polls were released earlier today, and boy was there a shakeup. Well not really, but let me just say that to make a point.

The most relevant news is that the Bears moved up to 22 (from 25) in the latest BCS rankings after upsetting Stanford in the Big Game.

Interestingly enough, the Bears are ranked 21st in the AP Polls (which do not factor in the BCS Rankings), but are ranked 26th in the Coaches Poll (which do factor). It is one of the larger discrepancies between the two polls, as is enough to at least get you to scratch your head.

Read on for shakeups in the Pac-10.


Oregon moved up to 8 in the BCS Polls after coming in 11th last week, following their big win over Arizona in double over time.

The Oregon State Beavers are up to 16 from 19 last last week after their easy win over the Washington State Cougs. Paul Wulff can't wait for the offseason.

USC fell two spots to 20 after their bye week. Not that it matters much for USC in the long run who are out of the BCS berth picture. All they can hope for is a 9-3 regular season finish, and a likely Top 15 ranking.

And most noticeably absent is the Stanford Cardinal who fell out of the polls altogether. The Cardinal had previously soared up to 17 following their trashings over USC and Oregon. Looks like they've settled back down to earth. Just a bit.
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Victory

(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

HELL F***ING YES.

Will do an actual writeup in the next day or two, but this one is too good not to enjoy.

Eat, drink, and be merry Cal fans. We've got the focking axe.


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Keys to the Game: Big Game 2009

It’s the Big Game Week folks!

And for the first time in a long time (since Tedford has taken over head coaching duties really), the Bears are the underdogs, understandable given the back to back drubbings the Cardinal have given to both Oregon and USC. Most Cal fans might remember that these two teams were the ones to beat Cal by a combined score of 76-6 in back to back weeks. Think back really. You ‘member? You ‘membeeeerrrr!!!

Relax Cal fans. Fortunately, comparing similar opponents ain’t the really way to evaluate teams in college football. But as much as we’re all likely still a bit giddy over the Bears’ defensive performance against Arizona (holding one of the conference’s top offense to just 274 yards), the truth is that the Bears have their hands full because of how improved and at times dominant Stanford has looked, particularly on offense.

Bring it to their O-line
Obviously, the first aspect of the Cardinal offense that jumps out to you is their power rushing attack led by the bruising Toby Gerhart who has been nothing short of outstanding this year. Stanford is 2nd in the conference in rushing yards, averaging 222 yards per game on the ground, with Gerhart accounting for about 139 yards per game. Watching their games against both Oregon and USC, I was stunned at how easily they were winning at the line of scrimmage, which speaks more to the strengths of their offensive line than anything else. Particularly against USC, Stanford was pushing back the Trojan front line for at least two yards on most rushing plays before Gerhart was even touched. Even the backup Stepfan Taylor was ripping off huge gains. Simply put, Stanford’s offensive line dominated in the trenches.


If the Bears are going to have any shot in slowing down the running game, the first point of attack is to clearly take this head on. Fortunately, the Bears have one of the better run defenses in the conference, currently allowing just 103.8 yards per game and a conference best 3.12 yards per carry. Typically, the Bears’ run defenses under the 3-4 have performed pretty well, with the occasional aberrations. While the strategy may not be anything too creative, the Bears are going to have to come out and play their most physical game of the season. It will be a combination of a nasty and angry mindset, as well as nearly perfect execution in technique to wrap up and tackle. Gap assignments will have to be followed to a T, and there has got to be an urgency on every play to shed blocks and swarm to the ball. Gerhart won’t go down at first contact, but the Bears’ speed on defense might help their gang tackling efforts enough that the first defender won’t have to wait too long for their help to get there.

In sum, this defense has to play like their hair is on fire when it comes to containing this running game. Hold Gerhart to about 125 rushing yards, and you’ve got a real shot at this one.

Watch Out for Luck
However, what makes Stanford’s offense that much scarier than last year’s version, is not only the improved play from their offensive line, but also the fact that they have a talented quarterback in Andrew Luck that can keep opposing defenses honest in more ways than one.

Stanford has transitioned from being a one-dimensional physical power running team, to one that is now complemented by a fairly efficient passing attack. Luck has the physical tools to take advantage of some of the one-on-one matchups created when opposing defenses stack the box, and also hurt you with quick efficient strikes over the middle. I’ve seen this specifically in the redzone several times this year, where Stanford is third in the conference in redzone TD conversions.

Luck also possesses the mobility and speed to tuck the ball and go when his passing picture is looking bleak. As dangerous as Nick Foles was last week, he wasn’t nearly the running threat that Luck will be on Saturday.

So what can you do against such a passing attack? Normally, you’d send the house on an inexperienced redshirt frosh QB. Pressure him into making bad decisions. Or you could always choose to rush three, drop defenders back and bait the QB into passing into dangerous zones.

But I’m really liking what I saw with last week’s gameplan against Arizona which featured a good combination of press man defenses, and zone coverages. A lot of times they would sell zone, before running up at jamming at the line of scrimmage. It was enough to throw Foles off to hold onto the ball a little bit longer than he would have liked to. Also, given Luck’s mobility, it’s not a situation where you want to constantly drop back and given 6-8 yards of running space, so I’d lean towards a bit more pressure than last week. I guess I’m trying to say is that a combination with a slightly more aggressive plan on pressuring the QB than last week. Yeah. That should do.

Avoid Special Teams Snaffus
Earlier in the year, I specifically stated that I felt that our special teams would cost us at least one game this year. Our losses so far have been such systematic failures, that it’s been difficult, or impossible rather, to pin it on just one unit.

Saturday might be the day though, that my prediction comes true. Stanford’s Chris Owusu leads the conference with in kickoff return yards, averaging 34.1 yards per return, having already run back three for scores. Conversely, the Bears are eighth in the conference, only managing 59.22 yards per kickoff.

You do the math. Ok, I will.
100 (yards on the field)
- 30 (where the ball is placed for kickoffs)
- 59.22 (average Cal kickoff)
= 10.88 (average opponent starting field position)

Now add Stanford’s average 34.1 yard per return, and voila, you’ve got an average starting field position of the 44 yard line. Hurray!

Ok, we know it’s not that simple. And while kickoffs have improved, kickoff returns have regressed. And I’m also scared at how close teams have gotten on blocking one of our punts. I’m also concerned at how absolute inability for our hawks to block off opposing teams’ gunners.

A special team snafu could be the difference in a game as funky as a rivalry game. What else can you do other than pray? And hope people stay disciplined in their individual assignments? Jeebus.

Win in the trenches…on Offense too
In general, Stanford’s defense hasn’t been too impressive as a whole to me. Yes, they had a great day against USC, but that Trojan team was so demoralized from being run over, it’s hard to effectively gauge that one performance. The Cardinal are ranked pretty similar to Cal’s defense in a lot of categories, which is pedestrian at best. The major difference is that their secondary defensive numbers are slightly better than the Bears’, while their rushing defensive numbers are slightly worse.

So this is less about them, then it is about us. As much as you scratch your head, the Bears’ ability to move the ball and score in nearly correlated a hundred percent to their offensive line’s performance. If the Bears can get enough of a push off the ball to pave some running lanes for Vereen, and give Riley enough time that he doesn’t feel pressured to making some of the throws he made against AZ last week, the Bears will be able to score on the Stanford defense. And they can score quite a bit actually.

But the big question is whether that will happen. Here’s hoping they come in angry, with something to prove. Here’s hoping that linemen are knocking linemen down, and looking for someone else to immediately bowl over. Here’s hoping that they’re rushing to piles, pancaking DBs who attempt to stuff end arounds and HB tosses. Here’s hoping they’re nasty. If not, then well, we don’t score. Yay.

Prediction
Both teams can score. It will come down to the battle in the trenches on both sides to see how much each team will score by. I’m still feeling not too great about this one in all honesty, but would absolutely ecstatic to beat this specific Stanford team. I think it would mean a great deal about the strength and resolve of ours.

Oh and it would feel great to derail their season. Just a little.

Stanford 31 Cal 24
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Arizona 2009 Recap

(AP Photo/Ben Margot)

(Snatching victory from the jaws of de-ah hell nevermind.)

"It took a career day by a backup running back, a fluke tackle by a kicker and an odd penalty that thwarted a potential go-ahead drive for California to pull out a victory without star tailback Jahvid Best."
-Associated Press

Eh? I'll be the first to admit that the game certainly had its fair share of fluky moments, but anyone who actually watched the game knew that these were hardly limited to the Bears. Terrific field position off of a nice JRoss punt return and two turnovers in Arizona territory squandered by interceptions or being limited to field goals, penalties, etc... Watching the game, I was in disbelief at the number of blown opportunities by the Bears, knowing full well that these would surely have been the reasons the Bears would have lost a game that was very well within their grasp.

Yet the Bears didn't blow the game. They hung in tight and fought a hard game against a solid Pac-10 team. It was their first win after trailing at the half this season, and an inspired and desperately needed win for their conference standings, fan base, and confidence. Quite simply: it was the Bears' best win of the season.


Meet your Cal workhorse: Shane Vereen
Cal fans got a preview of what is likely to be the 2010 offense. With Best sidelined by his concussion, Cal took the field with runningback Shane Vereen transitioning from reliable backup into the spotlight in the backfield. Vereen’s performance was nothing short of dependable as he brought his low-to-the-ground shifty style in a grinding and productive night for the Bears.

Vereen followed his offensive line to wear down the Wildcats front seven, carrying the ball 30 times for 159 yards and a touchdown. It was particularly impressive to see how many of his yards were made after initial contact. Vereen was stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on a number of occasions before fighting forward for another two or three yards.

Easily the best individual offensive performance of the night.

Offensive Line
Speaking of the offensive line, it's no secret that the Bears o-line has struggled this year. They've looked decent against mediocre defensive fronts, and poor against some of the more talented.

Yet, facing off against one of the conference's top rush defenses, the Bears managed 176 rushing yards. I am still concerned by the lack of push that the offensive line gets off the snap on running plays, but you could visibly see the line really wear down Arizona's front seven, especially late in the game. If there was any aspect of the Bears offense that won the game, it was their ability to be physical down the stretch. The Bears marched down the field for 72 yards, while eating up nearly 8 minutes in the fourth quarter before kicking a field goal to give themselves the lead. They also opened up a huge hole for Vereen to essentially seal the game on his explosive 61 yard TD score.

Their performance doesn't take anything away from the fact that they've struggled to be as physical or as aggressive in the trenches against opponents throughout most of this season. This was especially evident in that they still can be beaten and even manhandled by quicker and stronger linemen. But like their ability to step up and protect Riley in the waning moments of ASU, I was impressed with their ability to grind down Arizona late in the game. It was a refreshing change of pace.

Defense Steps Up Big
The Bears defense played its most complete game of the season. In all honesty, it was a surprising and inspiring effort given defense’s disappointing season thus far. The Bears held the Arizona, the conference’s top offense, which had previously averaged 449 yards per game to just 273 total yards.

Despite Arizona’s strong running game which had been previously averaging 201 yards a game, I anticipated the Bears’ stout defense would do a fair enough of a job. And they did just that holding Zona to just 79 net yards on the ground. It was another impressive performance against the run, after holding Jacquizz Rodgers to just 67 yards on 25 carries the week prior. As much as Cal’s pass defense has struggled this year, Cal’s run defense has been as good as last season’s save for a few lapses against USC and Oregon.

I was more impressed and surprised really, with Cal’s job against Nick Foles and the Arizona passing attack. The Wildcats had been tearing up opposing defenses for 247 yards per game to just 201 total yards. Again, shocking considering the Bears had previously been shredded by up by a number of passing attacks this season.

What was the difference? It was a healthy balance of more aggressive blitzing packages and much better man coverage from the secondary. The Bears were hurt by a number of pass interference penalties, but those are the types of penalties I can live with as it’s usually an indication tighter coverage. There were far more actual plays on the ball rather than simply trying to keep receivers in front of defenders.

And more than just the blitzing packages, Cal’s defensive line really stepped up its game, and dominated the line of scrimmage, especially down in the late stretch of the game. The Bears put some nice pressure on Foles late in the game, batting down a couple of key passes, and forcing three sacks. That last stat is particularly impressive given that Arizona had allowed just 4 sacks on the season. Cameron Jordan recorded two sacks moving him into a tie for third in the conference. Tyson Alualu continued to show why he might be the most important player on the defense, and possibly the most consistent defensive line player of the Jeff Tedford era.

Riley's Game
What can you really say about Riley's performance? Not really the best game by any stretch of the imagination. Riley was 13-22 for 181 yards, 1 TD and two picks.

Riley has been pretty smart with the football this year, although you could argue he's gotten away on numerous occasions with defenders dropping some sure-fire picks. He wasn't so lucky this time however. Riley's first pick came after severely underthrowing an open Nyan Boateng in the endzone. His second one was a bit more difficult to digest, after he failed to see the safety when trying to throw the ball away in the endzone.

Eh. What are you going to do? Bad plays, and we can only be grateful that those two plays didn't cost the Bears when they easily could have been the difference. In a way, it was a bit of a relief that for once this season the defense played so strong a game that Riley didn't need to have a strong game or even try to carry the team on his shoulders.

Tavecchio and Special Teams
Pac-10 Players of the week are out, and a Cal player not named Bryan Anger has finally won it. Tavecchio was named the Conference Special Teams player of the week after he put on the best performance from a Cal kicker in a couple of seasons, nailing 4 of 5 field goals, including two 46 yarders. And believe me, in a game as whacky and close as this one was, that's really the difference right there.

Like most of his predecessors, Tavecchio will go through his fair share of growing pains before developing any real consistency, and we might just be seeing it start to happen. While he's been up and down this year, kickoffs have improved much more so than earlier in the year, although kickoff coverage has somehow found a way to regress. Tavecchio has also made a number of key tackles on blown kickoff coverage to save some drives. Forza Italia! Or Italy! Or Milan!

Moving On
In one night, the Bears came close to matching a lot of the preseason hype, at least on the defensive side of the ball. The game did little to squelch a lot of the nagging criticisms or fears about this team, but again, I can't reiterate the importance of this win, and what it means after the Oregon State loss and the devastating injury to Best.

Of course, a lot of these fuzzy feelings might go swirling down the drain with a tough (or even worse, blowout) loss to the Cardinal this Saturday. But like I've written for most of this season, if you can't allow yourself to enjoy games like the one on Saturday, what are you really watching college football for? There are far too many heartbreaks in a season to not allow yourself to fully enjoy the last senior homegame, and an upset win over a ranked team.

Cal continues to show they can rough it out. Give them a chance, and if they keep it close, they just might pull one out on you.
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Rankings Update: Week 12

Surprise, surprise, puppy surprise!

The Bears are actually close to again breaking the Top 25. After getting bumped out of the rankings following their loss to Oregon State, the Bears are again on the verge of breaking back in after upsetting 18th ranked Arizona yesterday at Memorial Stadium.

The Bears are ranked 28th in the AP Poll, and 29th the USA Today/Coaches Poll. It's a pretty different picture considering the Bears didn't receive a single vote last week.

Of course, all of this really isn't too relevant until after Cal's big matchup with Stanford next week, which could determine if the Bears again crack right back into the polls, or likely sit it out of the rankings for the remainder of the regular season.

A win over the Cardinal, and the Bears would likely see themselves and their 8-3 record carry them into their season finale with a spot in the Top 25. A loss would likely end any such discussion of being ranked until after the bowl game.

Sounds a lot like last year no?

As for the rest of the Pac-10, USC is ranked the lowest it's been in years after being throttled by Stanford, sitting at 21st and 22nd in both aforementioned polls.

Oregon is still the top ranked Pac-10 team, coming in at 11th in both polls.

Stanford has soared in both polls, recognized as the nation's best 3 loss team, ranked 14th and 17th in the AP/Coaches Polls respectively.

Finally, Oregon State has entrenched itself at the 20th spot in both polls have rolling Washington yesterday, and appears to be headed to another 9 win season. Incredible.
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Keys to the Game: Arizona 2009

(Freaking Luke Skywalker here might be death of the Bears on Saturday.)

It's been an interesting and understandably disappointing season for the Bears. Once a top 10 team, the Bears had their dreams of being the top contenders to dethrone USC's run atop the Pac-10 dissipate with back to back embarrassing losses to Oregon and USC.

After regaining some momentum and confidence following three consecutive wins over the conference's bottom tier teams, the Bears hope of a 10 win regular season and remote remaining chances at a conference championship were again thrown out the window with a manhadling by the Oregon State Beavers. The loss was made all the more somber after Jahvid Best's terrifying hit and fall which might have presumably all but ended his season.

The Bears are again forced to regroup, but this time with all realities of its deficiencies. With just three remaining games left in the regular season, it's no longer a question of what this team is and isn't capable of. The Cal offense is potentially explosive if it gets solid play from its offensive line, which unfortunately for the Bears, hasn't been the case against some of the better defenses in the conference. The Cal defense is fairly stout against the run like last year, but unlike last year, has struggled to create consistent pressure on opposing QBs and has given up enormous amounts of paasing yards over the course of the season.

The issues don't bode well against a surging Arizona team that controls its own destiny to Pasadena. Moreover, Bob Stoops may have assembled his most solid defense yet, to go long with a passing offense that is downright scary. In sum, the Wildcats might be the worst matchup for the Bears at the worst time.

In order to pull out the win, the Bears will have to play their best ball of the season. In fact, I'm pretty convinced they'll have to try a few different things on both sides of the ball. But really, I wanted to focus more on some thoughts regarding how to approach Arizona's offense.


Sonny Dyke's offense really has two different looks: the singleback set, with four wide receivers spread out wide, and the two TE pro formation that runs the rushing attack with the occasional passes (mostly to the TEs). Both formations either get the ball off quickly to a WR or allow the line to pull and trap for some pretty gaping holes for their backs to run through. Both sets spell disaster.

Most teams have been able to get very little pressure on the Arizona. The Wildcats have only allowed 4 sacks on the season, easily the best mark in the conference. And these are against some pretty decent pass rushes. The Bears can't be considered a strong pass rushing team at this point and might kill themselves early and quickly by sending five or six pass rushers to try and overcompensate. Remember those other four receivers for Zona. Remember our secondary that currently ranks 116th in passing defense. Remember the Alamo.

The safer route might be to just rush three and drop back eight. Try and mix up the zone coverages, but more importantly play extremely tight coverage in the hopes that the linemen will get there in time to pressure AZ QB Nick Foles. We're talking jamming at the line and sticking with the receiver from snap to whistle. In Jonathan Okanes livechat, someone suggested (it might have been serious) only sending one or two pass rushers and dropping nine or ten. I chuckled, but it's effectively the same idea.

I expect defensive coordinator Bob Gregory to fall in this mindset on Saturday. Not that he is adverse to blitzing (despite popular belief), but rather that this might be (in the coaches' minds), the worst week to try and send the house against a team. I anticipate that they feel it might be safer to force errors by tighter coverage and giving up shorter passes in favor of getting burned deep.

Here's the problem though: we've seen plenty of that over the season, and ironically enough, the Bears have seemingly given up more big plays and allowed huge passing yards over the middle, despite blitzing less. Naturally, you could easily argue that it might be less of an issue of scheme, and more on a lack of execution and focus by the players. I could easily give you that. But I don't anticipate the talent nor the execution to dramatically improve over a week, so why not try something different? Clearly, the current schemes haven't been nearly as effective as one would like, so why not try sending six or seven rushers a bit more often and trusting the secondary to go iso with the receivers?

What is there to be afraid of? Huge gains over the middle and big plays? The last time I checked, we're still giving up plenty of those with safeties and DBs looking on as a receiver brings down the ball in front of them.

Of course, I'm not a coach and in terms of football IQ, I probably fall into the Paris Hilton range. So I fully expect the Bears not to follow this route. It's probably much safer in what is likely a lose-lose situation. My contention is primarily that the current schemes have faltered heavily against potent offenses, and have made middling offenses look prolific. So why not take a shot?

Also, it's critical that the Bears keep a strong eye out on the run. Despite hosting some impressive passing numbers, the Wildcats are much more balanced on offense than they've been in recent years. Arizona is currently ranked 3rd in the conference in rushing, averaging 201.38 yards per game. And while RB Nic Grigsby might be out, no Bear fan should forget backup Keola Antolin who slashed the Bears in last year's contest.

Granted, I'm far less concerned with this component of Arizona's offense, simply because the Bears have been much more successful in defending the run. But just a fair point to keep in mind. This offense could be brutal.

Prediction
I don't expect the Bears to win. I don't expect them to lose but I accept that as being the most realistic outcome given what we've seen in recent weeks from both teams. Again, the Bears are going to have to control the Arizona's passing rhythm to stand a chance. How to do that, is clearly up to more educated reasoning.

Arizona 34 Cal 24
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Oregon State 2009 Recap

(AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Before we get to the actual game itself, let’s talk about the most important bit of information which is that Jahvid Best has been released from the hospital and is expected to miss at least one game from “just” as serious concussion.

At this point I’m sure everyone has probably seen the absolutely terrifying hit that sent Best airborne and straight onto his head and back as he had attempted to leap into the endzone. The resulting impact sent Best’s helmet flying off and Best laid motionless with his arms and legs awkwardly stiff at his sides.

It’s quite frankly one of the scariest things I’ve witnessed, as I found myself just continually mumbling, “Please just show some movement” over and over again as paramedics attended to Jahvid for nearly fifteen minutes.

Thankfully, all the initial tests have come back negative, and Best is reported to have all movement in all his extremities. Moments such as the one on Saturday remind us all of things that are far bigger than the outcome of football games or even football careers. My thoughts are prayers are with Jahvid, and here’s hoping for a speedy recovery, and for all the reasons not related to football.

In a Nutshell
Now moving onto the game itself, it can simply be stated that the Bears were dominated in nearly every facet of the game. The Bears’s worst fears on defense were nearly realized as they succeeded in containing the Rodgers brothers but failed to stop Oregon State’s passing attack. Moreover, the Bears’ offense again failed to put up points behind its besieged offensive line and simply fell out of the game too early to hope for any type of offensive balance or rhythm.

What was good on Defense
Again, the biggest plus that the Bears can take away from Saturday’s game is the job they did containing the Rodgers Brothers.

The reigning Pac-10 offensive player of the year Jacquizz Rodgers was held to just 67 rushing yards on 25 carries for a 2.7 ypc average. Take away Quizz’s long 24 yard rush late in the game, and Quizz was actually held to a 1.7 ypc average for just 43 yards. That’s incredibly impressive when you consider the talent the kid is at tailback, and the can of whuppass he’s opened up some of the better defenses in conference this year.


Similarly, the Bears also contained the elder Rodgers brother, as James Rodgers had 80 yards and a TD. While those numbers don’t seem particularly impressive, Cal fans are going to have take solace in that it could have been a lot worse for them facing off against the conference’s leading receiver. Rodgers also had 7 rushes for 31 yards. Again take away the 28 yard rush, had James had very little space on most of his fly sweeps that have been proven to be successful for the Beavers this year.

What was bad for the Defense
Pretty much everything else.

It’s unfortunate that as strong of a job as Cal did against the Rodgers brothers, they really missed out on some key opportunities to stop the OSU offense. Cal put themselves in some great 3rd and long pass defense situations throughout the game and killed themselves countless times with their lack of ability to pressure OSU QB Sean Canfield and effectively defend OSU’s receivers, namely TE Joe Halahuni.

Let’s look at some specifics.

Cal doesn’t have the pass rushers this year
While I wrote last week that the Bears needed to be judicious about when and how to bring pressure, I did so with the understanding that we’d get killed on middle screens if we decided to send the house every play. It didn’t mean I didn’t think we needed to blitz, I just thought we had to be incredibly careful as to how we did so.

Yes, I don’t think Cal pressured Canfield nearly enough on Saturday. There were far too many instances when we were bringing just 3 or 4 pass rushers, which simply isn’t enough for a QB who had been shredding up similar defensive packages all year.

Yet, I distinctly recall Cal having much more success with this last year, despite only brining three to five pass rushers specifically. Last year, opposing offensive lines were being beaten not just by linemen, but our linebackers who excelled at shedding blocks, disguising their blitzes, and jumping the snap quickly to put adequate pressure on the QB.

While the defensive line this year has played up to par as last year, this falls more on the absence of a strong pass rusher at the LB position. I really don’t want to hear too much about our defensive line struggling, because they’ve really been the rock of this defense this year. I think we severely underestimated the losses at LB, and not having the pass rusher in Zach Follett or versatile MLB in Worrell Williams is really rearing its head in games where we aren’t seeing the success we used to when we do decide to send one or two extra linebackers or linemen.

Secondary Seconds
Many had expected Cal’s struggling secondary to have a potentially long day ahead against OSU’s potent passing attack, and well—they did. Sean Canfield was a sharp 29-39 for 342 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Saturday marked the seventh time this season that an opposing QB has thrown for more than 200 yards against the Bears (the exceptions being Maryland and Eastern Washington), and the fourth time that a QB has gone more than 300.

While the struggles in Cal’s secondary are head shakingly perplexing, some of it might be a lot easier to digest if you accept that Cal has struggled to field its four most consistent players in the backfield for this season.

While Syd’Quan Thompson has had his momentary lapses and battles with the injury bug, he’s still played like the preseason all-conference player that he is. The issue has been Cal’s inability to find the answer at the other CB spot.

Darian Hagan has become a near afterthought after his solid sophomore season has been followed up with inconsistent play, injury, and a team suspension. The aforementioned items has sent him plummeting down the depth chart behind RS frosh Josh Hill, Chris Conte, and Bryant Nnabuife.

And while all four of these players have gotten nods at the second DB spot this season, none seem to have played with the level of consistency to make opposing QBs hesitate just a little about throwing the ball to their side of the field. In fact, their play has essentially screamed, “Open” at certain moments of the season.

Similarly, while I’m pleased with the decision to place Sean Cattouse at one of the safety positions (I think the kid might be the best natural secondary player we have next to Squid right now), Cal has also struggled in the safety position. The most recent revelation that safety Marcus Ezeff has missed practices over the last few years to finish his degree on time has partially explained why his play has essentially stagnated over the past season, if not slightly regressed. Brent Johnson has showed the ability to lay some devastating hits, but has also found himself out of position on a few key passing plays this year as well.

Bears Burned in the Middle
Cal has struggled all year to defend tight ends or receivers over the middle, and the story wasn’t any different with Joe Halahuni steamrolling the Bears for 6 catches and 128 yards. The Bears haven’t been able to find an answer at a coverage linebacker who can adequately match one-on-one with tight ends, and safeties have struggled to keep the tight ends bottled up once they’ve snuck out 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. It’s quite frustrating to see it happen time and time again, which makes you wonder if it’s a constant issue in execution (which might reflect coaching) or simply a lack of personnel.

Shoddy Tackling
I wrote that the Bears would be killed if they didn’t execute perfect technique in wrapping up OSU’s physical receivers, and sure enough, the Bears had one of their worst tackling performances of the year (save 2nd quarter WSU) against the Beavers. There were a number of plays, specifically on third down where the Bears got the look they wanted in forcing dump off passes five to six yards in front of the 1st down marker, only to have a Beavers receiver fight forward for a first down.

It was absolutely back breaking for this defense, again considering how well they had done in bottling up the running game and a number of the flanker screens. I really don’t have much of an answer as to why that continually happened, other than a lack of proper technique or beastmode like performances by OSU players. No offense, but it’s unlikely it was the latter.

Offensive Line Stumbles
All three of Cal’s losses have shown their offensive line’s penchant for struggling against physical defensive lines this year. The most distressing aspect of Saturday’s game was that Cal’s line really got manhandled against an OSU defensive front seven that had previously managed just 8 sacks on the year, with 4 coming against Washington State alone.

While the sacks are slightly misleading, OSU’s inexperienced front seven was far from being the defensive tour de force that showed up on Saturday. Cal’s o-line got absolutely zero push in their running game and was constantly pushed back in pass protection. OSU knew Cal’s line was struggling and dialed up blitzes, not really making too much of an effort to disguise either. They were going to bring it, and bring it hard.

Again, I think many have underestimated the youth at the offensive line, with two new guards, a center that had played just four games prior to the start of the year, and a sophomore right tackle. And Avinash over at CGB appears to think new o-line Coach Marshall has a lot to do with it. Possibly and probably. But the bottom line is that it simply doesn’t look like Cal has the offensive line this year to really push them into the top tier of the conference when matched up against the top defenses.

Other Offensive Tidbits
Alex Lagemann continues to impress. Other than that one drop, Lagemann was our best threat to make tough catches down the middle and should be penciled in on most third down passing situations moving forward. Can’t wait until he has a chance to show us what he can do after the catch.

Surprising to see that that was Verran Tucker’s first TD of the season. And it was a beauty. Riley absolutely lasered the pass and Tucker sucked it in right into his mitts like it was cotton candy. Tucker has had a really quiet season, but broke out for 6 catches for 74 yards and score.

As a whole the receiving corps certainly looks improved over last year, but continues to be plagued by some dropsies. It’s accentuated by the fact that they appear to always come on critical third downs. Don’t get me wrong, they’ve made more than their fair share of critical conversions on third down, but until we see fewer of these, it’s going to continue to hang over this corps, fair or not.

Moving On…
Yes the game was frustrating to watch. While I didn’t expect the Bears to lose, I’m certainly not surprised that they did. The manner in which they lost was frustrating, but the whole evening was thrown off track by Best’s injury which really gave the entire game a chilling funky sort of feel.

Again, with just three games remaining in the season, Cal fans have seen how strong the Bears can look over inferior opponents, and just how much they can faceplant against the conference’s elite. I don’t think they’re quite as bad as their performances in their losses would indicate, nor are they as good as their performances in their wins. They’re probably somewhere a little in between, which leaves us with a team that has a chance to be anywhere from pretty good to fairly ineffective.

The ineffective team reared its head on Saturday, which was unfortunate. What’s even more unfortunate though, is the unnecessary reminder in Best’s injury of how much more can be at stake than our expectations of a collegiate football team. At the end of the day, the Bears lost the game, but could have certainly lost a whole lot more.
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Keys to the Game: Oregon State 2009

Dah. I had a far more extensive writeup previewing the huge upcoming game (conference repercussions are big on this one folks) planned for this one, but life got in the way.

So I'll have to make this shorter than usual. Here's the skinny: The Bears are coming off a 3 game winning streak after face planting earlier in the season against the conference's elite in Oregon and USC in back to back drubbings. While they've rebounded nicely since then, most recognize they've faced teams that are expected to finish in the Pac-10 conference this year.

The competition gets much stiffer as they face an Oregon State squad that always seems to play its best football in the second half of the season. Even without their usual late season momentum, the Beavers present themselves as dangerous opponents for the Bears. One, their offensive prowess is enough to scare most Bear fans, and their penchant for having the Bears numbers in recent years, winning two in a row and every contest in Memorial Stadium while Tedford's been the head honcho here is enough to make you feel squeamish headed into Saturday's contest.

The Vegas oddmakers have the Bears favored by about a touchdown in what's expected to be a shootout with both teams featuring suspect pass defenses, red hot QBs, and explosive running games. The Bears will face their toughest challenge since their meltdowns against the Ducks and the Trojans, but can most certainly pull off a win with perfect focus and execution of a few items.


Defensively, I was a bit surprised as to how similar Cal and Oregon State were statistically.
There really isn’t too much separating the defenses. The most obvious trends are that both teams have struggled in the giving up chunks of passing yardage, but different reasons. While most on the team are trying to wrap their heads around why such a veteran secondary has struggled to match last year’s defensive numbers (much of it being execution and focus), the Beavers knew they had their work cut out for them after having to replace three starters in the secondary who are now in the NFL.

In watching some basic highlight footage of the Beavs, it appears they do their most damage over the middle of the field, specifically in hitting either of the Rodgers brothers in screen passes against an aggressive pass rush. You saw this most notably against USC a few weeks ago, as the Trojans really brought the heat on Canfield, but were burned badly a number of times after Jacquizz Rodgers snuck out them for some easy gains. Some shoddy tackling allowed Rodgers to again have a big day for OSU.

While I would normally advocate for a heavy pass rush against inexperienced QBs, Canfield most certainly doesn’t fall into that category right now. Simply sending more men at the QB hasn’t been too effective for the Bears in recent weeks and could be absolutely disastrous against OSU.

I’m not saying we should try to pressure Canfield, but I think the Bears will need to be much more judicious with when and how we bring pressure. I’ve asked for different types of blitzes such as delayed or corner blitzes in past weeks, and would like to continue to see some diversity in the pass rush play calling. And when the Bears do blitz, they’re going to have to be incredibly disciplined and tuned in on all their coverage assignments, with one defender spying on Jacquizz at all times.

But I also believe that playing tighter coverage in the secondary will eventually allow the Bears’ talented defensive line the time to get pressure on Canfield without having to compromise huge chunks of the field by dedicating more defenders to rushing the passer.

It’s also interesting to note that a good chunk of OSU’s yardage came after the catch after Beavers receivers were able to slip defenders. And by Beavers’ receivers, I’m primarily referring to both the Rodgers brothers who together account for 1078 receiving yards already on the season. Both players are incredibly shifty and deceivingly strong, so that even the most physical defenders struggle to get them at first contact. This in itself might be the biggest physical challenge for Cal on Saturday.

In sum, given the opponent, I actually think this is one week where Bob Gregory’s typical game plan of keeping the ball in front of the defender and forcing long drives might actually the Bears’ best shot at winning this game.

If the Bears can demonstrate the proper technique to wrap up the ball carriers or receivers upon contact and keep them in front, they might be able to avoid giving up the big plays as they have had the penchant of doing in nearly every game this season.

I fully expect the combined score to at least get into the 50s, and think the Bears’s offense might be able to put up the necessary points on OSU’s defense if they can get into a rhythm early. The onus will fall on Cal’s defense to limit the OSU offense into settling for field goals and grinding it out for chunks of yards. If Cal can keep OSU in the low twenty’s scoring wise, they’ve got a good shot at the win. Otherwise, the Bears offense would need to go absolutely ballistic to keep up, needing 40+ points for the W.

Prediction
Cal 31 OSU 27

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Jahvid Best on Jim Rome is Burning

Thanks to CalBearsGoBig!

Say what you want about Jim Rome but the guy usually can get some pretty good interviews out of most people. Fortunately, Jahvid makes it easy for Rome as he comes across as being his articulate, intelligent self.

Don't believe me about the decent interview? Just watch what happened when Best was paired up with Bay Area's own Gary Radnich a few years back. Jahvid Lynch? Awkward...


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ASU Game Winning Drive and Highlights

Sorry, I'm still excited by the final game winning drive against ASU on Saturday. Jittery even. Fortunately TouchedtheAxein82 already has a HQ version up on YouTube. Thanks!


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