Tuesday, October 6, 2009

USC Recap: (Part 2) Effects

I continue my USC recap by looking at the potential effects of Cal's second conference loss, and some thoughts to consider as we enter into the first bye week of the season.

What does it mean?
The effects of Cal’s loss to USC are potentially long lasting. It’s not anything any player, coach, or fan wants to hear, but this loss really hurts on a number of levels.

First of all, for all intents and purposes, the Bears’ Rose Bowl dreams are all but lost for this year. That much is obvious. By no means would I expect or hope the Bears fold it up and call it a season. But the Bears aren’t even close to controlling anyone’s destiny at this point, let alone their own, and that can be deflating enough with more than half the season to play.

Also, Cal’s fanbase and national perception may have been irreparably damaged. I honestly get the sense that Cal may have really lost the benefit of the doubt in too many people’s mind. Yes, the loss was that bad. Getting drubbed 72-6 in back to back weeks with so much on the line on a national scale will do that to you.

Then again, if the 2007 season has taught us anything, then we know that most Cal fans have a ridiculous pain tolerance. Hell, just look back at the last 51 years.


And usually I would consider this a minor issue, but given the game was host to arguably the biggest and critical recruiting weekend in the program’s history, a 30-3 loss makes the Bears look like a less attractive contender for their football services for just about…anyone. Both for potential recruits and those who have already committed. It will be very interesting to see the potential fallout and aftermath of such a weekend.

The Bad News Bears
The bottom line is that the Bears find themselves in one heck of a hole. Back to back embarrassing losses that have knocked the Bears out of the conference title picture may have also set the program back a few years.

And while Cal could dig themselves out and finish with a respectable record (a ten win season is still feasible), nothing about the team in recent weeks has shown that they’re anywhere near being able to accomplish such a feat. The Bears have more issues than they can count, and I’m not sure if just hard work is going to fix it.

I would like to believe that Cal simply had freak performances in back to back weeks and that execution is all that is necessary to right the ship. And while the Bears have certainly fallen off the wagon in that category, I really don’t think the Bears’ issues have to do with effort. Their talent may have been grossly overvalued and that Cal’s gameplanning hasn’t even been close to what’s necessary to make their last few games competitive.

The Golden Good News?
The first piece of good news is that Bears have made it through the most difficult part of the schedule. Make no mistake about it, I can see the Bears easily losing five more games based on their recent performances. Yet, none appear to be as tough on paper (yet) as what the Bears faced in the past few weeks.

The Bears also escaped the game without any major injuries. Given where the Bears were last year in this category, we should be pretty fortunate that we’re just out two tight ends, a receiver, and an OG at this point.

The biggest piece of good news though is that the bye weekend couldn’t have come soon enough. The Bears are going to have to take a good hard look at their team in nearly every facet and evaluate where they need to shake things up. I am not calling for any one player or coach’s head. I am hoping though that this staff looks at their team and themselves honestly to evaluate what clearly has and has not been working and try something—anything different.

4 comments:

North End Zoner XX said...

Number one effect to me is the impact on the reputation of the QB guru and head coach Jeff Tedford. Granted he has done a lot for the Cal program, but I think a change is needed to move to the next level; i.e. Rose Bowl

I'm still amazed about how poor Cal's kicking game is and that nothing has been done about it.

B said...

I have to disagree with a lof of things here. First, I don't see how you think Cal could lose 5 more games. It's amazing how tough games can change perceptions. We beat down Maryland, who sucks, but is still an ACC team. We didn't pull away from Minnesota as fast as we should have, but we were the better team and won, on the road, in the end. Those are the types of teams we have scheduled for the rest of the season. We should be favored in almost every, if not every, game for the rest of the year. Realistically we'll probably finish around 8-4. Like you said in your first post, we made a bunch of assumptions before the season and unfortunately, most of them fell flat. Cal is still good, but not enough assumptions went their way to make the Rose Bowl this year.

As for North End Zoner, I don't see why you think a change is needed to get to the next level. Cal was one incompletion away from playing in not only the Rose Bowl, but the National Championship in 2004 under Tedford. Then a complete screwjob from the media kept them out of the RB. In 2006, it was one loss to AU that kept Cal out of the Rose Bowl. The point is Tedford's been knocking on the door multiple times - at some point Cal will get the breaks and get through. The whole USC being the best football program in the country during Tedford's era has certainly been a big factor in that. Also keep in mind it's not like any other Pac-10 coach has gone to the Rose Bowl over that time period, so I don't see how you can argue a change might be needed.

As for the kicking game, gotta disagree there, too. Yes, the kicking game needs improvement, but it's not for lack of trying to do something about it. Tedford gave 3 different kickers the chance to compete for the job last year (Kay, Seawright, Tavecchio). When that didn't work, they went out and recuited another one (D'Amato). So yes, it's been disappointing and needs to improve, but saying "nothing has been done about it" is just not accurate at all.

Fin said...

B -

I like your attitude. I've been getting down on Tedford a lot lately, but I think you make some really good points.

At the same time, I can also see another 5 or so losses, taking into account Riley's performance in the past two week's and Cal's tendency to fall flat and crumble down the road after raising expectations early. I anticipate a few more losses, a few more wins. 8 - 4 isn't unreasonable.

If we can face a weaker defense that allows Riley to get back some of his swagger, we may rebound. I'd sure as hell love to see 10 wins!

Bear with Fangs said...

Just to clarify, I wasn't saying we would lose five more games, I said we could based on how were playing those two games. While no opponent is quite as good as Oregon or USC, az, asu, OAU, stanford and wash will all provide stiff challenges.

Couuld and would are very different however. I don't actually think they will.