Keys to the Game: Oregon 2009

(Blount's next step after Oregon: "LaGarrette Blount's Punchout")

I know I’ve stated this multiple times on this site, but I’ll say it again: very few games during the course of the season get me as excited as Cal’s annual one with the Oregon Ducks. They are most typically some of the most thrilling contests I get the pleasure of watching in the conference year in and year out. All of our victories have been a blast for different reasons, from the monsoon that was last year’s contest, to the thriller in 2007, to the rout in 2006 and the final dropped pass in 2004. Even the losses have been whacky, from the lights going out in 2003, to the overtime heartbreaker in 2005.

I’m also usually the most nervous about the Oregon game each year, given the propensity for the two teams to play each other close and the game expected to come down to the wire.

And to provide some context, I’m usually worried about every Cal game. And when I say worried about every game, I mean I-was-even-sweating-at-points-during-the-EWU-game-worried.

So it goes without saying that I still I’ll have my tums ready for a game against an Oregon squad that appears to be gaining confidence and swagger with each game following the Boise State debacle.

Yet, I can’t help but look at some facts that give me a slight level of relative confidence that the Bears absolutely should win this game. My fears around the Oregon team usually center around their potent offense, yet this offense appears to be the most stagnant and vulnerable that it’s been in years. And even when Oregon’s team has been high rolling, Cal has done a pretty solid job of holding the Ducks to well below their yardage and scoring average.

So with these conflicting emotions in play, let’s look at what are in my mind, the keys to the game.


Run Down Oregon’s Defense
While Oregon’s offense has left much to be desired this year, their defense has looked fairly stout. The Ducks feature some playmakers at the linebacker spot in Casey Matthews and Spencer Paysinger as well as an experienced secondary led by Walter Thurmond and TJ Ward.

Their defensive line on the other hand, entered the season with a number of losses on the defensive line. Their lone returning starter Will Tukuafu has failed to make plays in the backfield this season with just 15 tackles, and none for a loss.

What this translates to is an Oregon defense that will typically draw in their linebackers to help stop the run along with their safety TJ Ward acting as a bit of a rover to cover gaps and make plays at the line of scrimmage on running plays. Ward is questionable for the game though, and that responsibility with fall on freshman Jon Boyett.

The results have worked reasonably well thus far with the Ducks giving up 151 yards per game on the ground (8th in the conference). While that seems like a high amount, Oregon’s opponents have run the ball on the Ducks A LOT this year, an average of 45 attempts per game. This works out to the Ducks giving up 3.33 yards per carry which is actually pretty decent.

Also, Oregon’s speed at the linebacker positions pose a problem for the Bears as it closes up running lanes on the outside where Cal’s speedy backs have had much success over slower opponents in the previous weeks.

Yet, I’m confident that Cal’s offensive line is more talented, deeper, and more physically dominating than the Oregon’s defensive line which should at least allow Cal to eventually rip off 3-4 yard runs. This should naturally draw Oregon’s linebackers and secondary into the box. While there may not be too much heavy scoring in the first half, early success in a running game could set the stage for some explosive plays later in the game. Play action, reverses, fly sweeps, and quick passes on 1-1 WR matchups on the outside could become incredibly fruitful if Cal’s offensive line is able to assert its will on Oregon’s D-line and linebackers.

Keep Masoli Airborn
This key is fairly similar to last year when I wrote that Masoli, who had struggled to pass the ball while staying successful on the ground, would need to be limited on the ground to set up constant passing situations on third down for the Bears. The formula worked as the Bears held Jeremiah Masoli to 7-21 passing for only 44 yards to go with his two picks.

The funny thing is, as much as Masoli had struggled passing last year prior to Cal’s game (189 yards passing in the previous two games), his passing numbers this year have regressed even further. Masoli is currently completing just 45.3% of his passes for just 379 yards on the season with 2 interceptions and no touchdowns. He has however remained a running threat, rushing for 145 yards and 4 TDs.

Also, after LaGarrette Blount’s suspension, Oregon has fewer answers at running back than ever. No longer having the luxury of a Jonathan Stewart or a Jeremiah Johnson, the Ducks will have to hope that freshman’s LaMichael James’ continued progress will pose enough of a threat that the Bears won’t have to commit more players than necessary to the running lanes in the middle. James will certainly threaten though, as he’s faster than Blount ever was, and could really hurt the Bears if Cal isn’t disciplined in their assignments.

So again, the key will be for the Bears to key in on the run. There’s nothing that discipline and focus won’t be able to cover, as the Bears have the scheme (the 3-4 has done well against the Ducks’ offense) and the talent to limit the Oregon Ducks from going videogame crazy offense on Cal. Unless Masoli has a breakthrough at QB, Cal might do well to trust their experienced secondary to man up on Oregon’s receivers on the outside.

Special Teams…Just…Don’t Lose This Game
Okay…offense needs to establish the run. Defense needs to get Masoli passing in long yard passing situations…now special teams needs too…gawd.

Special Teams is where more talented teams can lose on the road. It’s absolutely not out of the realm of possibility that the Ducks could very easily win this game with Cal’s poor kickoffs and kickoff coverage constantly giving Oregon short field to work with.

Also, let’s not forget that the Ducks currently lead the conference in punt return yards, and opened last week’s game against Utah with a punt return for a TD.

Oh and then consider that given Cal’s history of close games in Autzen, the game could come down to a field goal which would fall on the leg of a true frosh Vince D’Amato is just 2-4 on the season.

There really isn’t much else to say. Let’s forget the positional pop-up kicking for now, drill the ball as deep as you can, and threaten playing time if players aren’t staying in their lanes on coverage. Okay, I don’t know what I’m saying. I’m just trying to think of ways where I won’t be saying, “Alamar cost us Oregon 2009” years from now.

Should Win, Will Win?
I’ll be honest. I’m expecting a defensive battle on Saturday. Don’t be surprised with a 10-3 or 13-7 type of half before things open up in the second half. Special teams, flukey calls, or freak plays might eventually break the game open to swing one way or another, but I believe the Bears are stronger in the trenches and deeper all around to eventually win this one late in the game.

Score Prediction: Bears 31 Ducks 20