Keys to the Game: Minnesota 2009

I apologize for the lack of updates this week. Those who know me personally know that I've just recently moved to NYC and am pursuing an incredibly draining and time consuming (but rewarding) career. Hence, I haven't had much of an opportunity to sit behind my computer for very long. In fact, I still don't. I'm actually typing this from my blackberry (amazing!) on my way to New Haven for the weekend. So you'll have to excuse any typos and plain text.

In other news, the Bears face off against an underwhelming Minnesota team what has squeaked by in their first two games against Air Force and Syracuse. I haven't had too much of an opportunity to watch much recent footage of the Gophers thus far, but I have been moderately unimpressed with what I have seen. Most strikingly, I've noticed an obvious lack of speed from a team who appears to be fundamentally solid and stout, but lacking in any eye opening athleticism.

Nevertheless, it's a game that has been the center of media speculation and fan worry. The overarching question appears to be whether the Bears can do what they haven't been able to do very well since 2006 which is beat BCS teams on the road. One only needs to look at the debacle that was Maryland last year for a recent illustration of this. In fact, all four of the Bears losses were on the road with their one road win being against lowly WSU.

Still there's reason to be optimistic. While the obvious talent differential has come to provide little comfort for Cal fans who have seen their Bears slip on the road to inferior opponents before, Cal's team has much more experience at nearly every unit to potentially avoid some of the mental mistakes that have cost the Bears such games in seasons prior.


On offense the Bears are likely to exploit their speed in a gameplan that will otherwise intend on pounding it out on the ground at matching the Gophers' physicality on defense. Headlined by a talented linebacker trio, the Gophers have been fairly stout against the run, allowing just 3.51 ypc, which is made even more impreessive by the fact that they faced a run heavy offense in Air Force last week. This can be primarily attributed to the veteran experience with the Gophers defense that plays solid and executes their assignments fairly well.

I would expect that the Bears would subsequently come out throwing early on in hopes of testing Minnesota's secondary and keeping their LBs on their heels. Given Riley"s slower starts, this may take a quarter or so, but things could really open up in the second half.

Also, I must reiterate my generally pleased impression of OC Andy Ludwig's playcalling thus far and am excited to see what he has in store for a defense that plays fairly straight-up, execute, hit-you-in-the-mouth physicality. Misdirection, tosses, reverses, Oh My!

On defense, the Bears face off against two things that have either hurt or helped them: a power rushing attack and a short quick passing game.

Through the air, Minnesota's most obvious target is All-Conference receiver Eric Decker. He has accounted for 60 percent of the Gophers offense and is a beast in the air, catching everything that is thrown his way. He also has a fairly deceptive level of speed, with long strides that easily create distance and separation from defenders. He reminds me a bit of Chase Lyman in that way.

I'll be interested to see some of his 1-1 matchups with Syd, as well as how the Bears plan on mixing enough coverage to confuse QB Adam Weber long enough to get flushed in making mistakes. The 3-4 should be able to provide some more accurate answers on how it intends to stop solid receivers this season.

On the ground, the Gophers are pretty vanilla, not incorporating too many misdirections or counters. They use their beefy O-line to try and assert their dominance on you and wear you down over the course of the game. Fortunately, the Bears have fairly well against such running schemes since switching to the 3-4, and have enough depth at the D-line to keep up.

The biggest issue I see is a tendency to over commit to the run which either leaves the middle wide open for TEs to creep out for passes and bigger gains on playaction calls. Again, the Eastern Washington FB should NOT have been that open on that score last week.

Overall, the biggest issue will be for the Bears to stay focused nd to not get rattled by playing outside of the safe confines of Memorial Stadium. They have the depth and athleticism to eventually win (possibly handily).

Score Prediction: Cal 31 Minnesota 17.