Looking back at my Preseason Top 25: Right On!

I’m the Freaking Man (Pretty much on the Money)

In the world of college football predictions, there are some things you can be certain about. Others, you have to be a bit more ballsy with in your predictions. I’ve got a bit of both, but I’ll only take credit for the latter.

To lead off, let’s review what I said in regards to the USC Trojans back in August:

#3 USC – I’m not going to do it. I’m not pegging USC to go undefeated this year. And it’s not because I hate USC (which I do—a lot). And it’s also not because of Ohio State. In fact, I think USC that despite their questions on offense, I think USC manages to take down Ohio State this year. It’s because I think somewhere in the season, the Trojans drop a game to a Pac-10 conference team. Call it a gut feeling, or perhaps wishful thinking, but I sincerely believe that with all the mystery and questions surrounding Pac-10 teams this year, someone will rise up and knock off the Trojans, perhaps even at home. USC’s toughest games over the past few years have all been against Pac-10 squads (with the exception of the memorable 2005 Rose Bowl), and I don’t expect this year to be too different. Pete Carroll’s squad will still a very good bet to take a seventh consecutive league title and may end up in the National Title game, but not without faltering somewhere down the line. (Predicted Regular Season Finish: 11-1)

You could try and point out that the Trojans didn’t end up losing at home, but rather on the road, or that USC would actually finish 5th in the final rankings instead of 3rd, but then you’d be a douche. Everything else is pretty much spot on.


I missed BYU’s final ranking by just one spot, pegging them 15th instead of the 16th spot they landed in. However, I was spot on about their predicted 10-2 record and fall from the BCS Bowl picture as well as their inevitable return to the Vegas Bowl. Ka-Ching!

Coming off a 5-7 season, I must have raised a few eye brows when I picked Pittsburgh to go 9-3. I then must have earned some chuckles when Pittsburgh lost to Bowling Green early on in the season and had Pitt fans calling for Coach Wannstedt’s head on a Panther platter. But Wannstedt saved his job and the season by winning the next 5, and finishing second in the conference behind conference champ Cincinatti with what kind of record? 9-3. Yeah baby.


The puppy I’m most proud about however is picking Florida to go 11-1 and end up in the National Title Game. Everyone predicted Florida’s offense would be scary good.—and they were, 3rd in the nation averaging 45.2 points per game. But I made the prediction that Florida’s young defense would improve by leaps and bounds. And they did, finishing 5th in the nation giving up just 12.4 points per game. Granted, I figured their loss wouldn’t have been to Ole Miss, but a loss is a loss, and everything else? Perfect.

Finally, I should give myself SOME credit for my Bears prediction. Although it didn’t differ really from most media pundits’ thoughts about the Bears, I thought I did okay when considering how little we know about this team or how they would respond to last year’s slide. Check out what I wrote back in August.

#16 Cal - So here's the thing about the Bears. I can see Cal going 10-2 this year. I can also just as easily see us going 6-6 with all the questions the team has going into its season opener against Michigan State. Who will be the QB? How will the 3-4 defense work against the Pac-10? Will Frank Cignettin's playcalling help or hurt the Bears? Who will be kicking? How will a brand new receiving corps do in the pass heavy Pac-10? How will the new uniforms look? My goodness. The logical prediction would be to aim somewhere in between 6 and 10 wins and look at an 8-4 regular season. Call me an eternal optimist. Or a Cal blogger who's read more about the Bears in the past week than many do in a given year. Given what I've read and heard, I really do think that Jeff Tedford's squad has a chance to surprise a lot of people this year. The Bears's success will ride heavily on Cal's O-line, a more experienced and hungry defense, and a team who has committed to rid themselves of any and all issues that may have led to last year's 1-6 regular season finish. Given all of Cal's questions, a 9-3 finish and a Holiday Bowl will be considered a huge accomplishment for even the most cynical of Cal fans. (Predicted regular season finish: 9-3)

So, although my head told me 8-4 was more likely, I wanted to be a bit more optimistic and aim for 9-3. And had the Bears squeezed out just one more road win this year, we’d be talking about that record and how amazing I am. Instead, we’re only talking about how amazing I am. Plus, the Holiday Bowl would have been the Bears’ likely destination had the Beavers decided to play defense in the Civil War.

In Closing
Well, I thought I did okay this year. I’m proud about a few picks (BYU, Florida, Pitt), proud about some I didn’t pick (ASU, Kansas), not so proud about some others (West Virginia, South Florida), and absolutely embarrassed by a few others (Clemson, Tennessee).

The season also featured far fewer upsets than the year prior. We had far more teams with absolutely fantastic records and performances this year, with most being left out of the BCS Bowl game. I would not have predicted that we’d be talking about six one-loss Top 10 teams, or two non-BCS undefeated teams.

Bu then again, as Herm Edwards once said, “that’s why you play the game!” Taken out of context.