Emerald Bowl Statistical Breakdown

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Typically, I do a “simple” Keys to the Game Feature when breaking down an upcoming Cal game. Since we have a little bit more time before the bowl, I thought I’d do a comparison, primarily statistical, with Cal and Miami. I may still do Keys to the Game feature later in the week, but you know, with it being the Holidays and all, well you know.

Opposites on Defense
Miami is an incredibly young team, featuring a plethora of true and redshirt freshmen as starters, with the general theme being “we’ve got the potential to be great next year.”

Both Cal and Miami have posted some similar numbers on the defensive side of the ball. Miami has 82 tackles for a loss on the year versus Cal’s 80. Miami also has 30 sacks on the year against Cal’s 33.

Overall, UM finished 24th in the nation total defense, giving up 313.2 yards per game, while California finished just behind the ‘Canes at 25th in the nation with 315.4 yards per game.

That’s about where the similarities end though.

Miami finished 56th in country, and second to last in the ACC conference in scoring defense giving up 24.2 points per game.

Cal on the other hand, gave up on average 20.2 points per game, good for 26th in the nation and 2nd best in their conference.

Struggling Secondary
Miami’s secondary only notched 4 interceptions on the year, tying Fresno State for last among 118 schools. However, the ‘Canes pass defense was ranked 13th nationally, only giving up 169.3 yards per game through the air.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Cal’s secondary was content to give up a number of yards through the air, finishing 42nd in the country with 192.9 passing yards per game. However, the same secondary finished the regular season 3rd in the nation in interceptions with 23, the best mark in over 55 years for the Bears.

If the disparity in interceptions wasn’t shocking enough for you, the most striking difference between the two secondaries is the difference in passing efficiency defense. While Miami posted a decent 117.75 rating (42nd nationally), Cal’s secondary was the 5th best in the nation in this category, posting a low 97.06 rating on the year.

(Oski's better.)

Rush Defense
Miami’s defense faltered heavily down the stretch this past season, particularly in the running game. After winning five consecutive games in October through November, the Hurricanes gave up a whopping 691 rushing yards in their final two losses to Georgia Tech and NC State.

Miami’s rushing defense finished the regular season ranked 70th in the country, and 8th in the ACC, surrendering 143.83 yards per game on the ground, giving up 3.73 YPC.

Miami’s last two performances make it interesting to see how their rush defense will match up against a Cal rushing offense that put up a gaudy 718 yards and 7 touchdowns in their final two games against Stanford and Washington. Jahvid Best alone had 512 of those yards and 6 touchdowns.

On the flip side of the ball, Cal’s rush defense is ranked 26th in the country, and 3rd in their conference, only giving up 122.5 rushing yards per game for a 3.17 YPC average.


Similarities on Offense
At an initial glance, both teams offensive statistics would indicate that teams are fairly different on offense. Cal features the nation’s 22nd most potent offense, averaging 33.3 PPG. Conversely, Miami ranks 47th with 27.9 PPG on the year. Miami is also ranked 88th in the country in total offense with just 327.1 yards per game, while Cal fared a bit better at 45th in the country with 379.2 yards per contest.

However, on the offensive side of the ball, both teams actually share a number of similarities in terms of personnel situations and specific unit production.

Not to be outdone by Cal’s swapping back and forth between RS Soph Kevin Riley and senior Nate Longshore, Miami rotated two quarterbacks throughout the season: RS Frosh Robert Marve and true freshman Jacory Harris. While Marve has started every game this season, Harris has come in on a handful of drives each game. Marve has been suspended for the bowl game due to missing far too many classes, so look for Harris to play most, if not all of the game.

These QB rotations have resulted in Miami, like Cal, putting up similarly mediocre passing numbers this year. Miami is ranked 76th in the nation with 197.0 passing yards per game, with a 118.54 passer efficiency rating. Cal follows just behind them in passing yards, ranking 78th with 195.5 yards per game, but a slightly higher 121.08 rating.

The biggest difference between the two passing games though, is the TD:INT ratio, with Miami going an eyebrow-raising 20:19, and Cal featuring a far better ratio at 24:10. As much as Cal’s passing game has struggled this year, both Riley and Longshore have been pretty good in this regard.

Brand New Receiving
Also like the Bears, the ‘Canes broke in a brand new receiving group, with the difference being that Miami’s group was headlined by a number of true freshmen. That group is led by true frosh Aldaarius Johnson, and also features other true frosh Travis Benjamin, Thearon Collier, Laron Byrd, Davod Johnson. That’s a lot of freaking true freshman. At least a handful of Cal’s inexperienced receivers have been in the program for a few years.

Initially, when I looked at Miami’s individual receiving numbers, I immediately thought, “Man these guys really aren’t all that great.” And then I looked at Cal’s numbers, and thought, “Man, neither are we.”

Look at the numbers below.


Neither team has a single receiver with more than 30 catches on the season, while rival conference teams such as Oregon State and UCLA, or Clemson and Virginia all have at least four. These numbers are necessarily indicative though of the talent on both teams, rather being revealing about the youth and experience at the receiver position, as well as the inconsistency at the QB position due to the musical chairs situations at both schools.

Continuing with patterns of similarity, both offensive lines have allowed a similar number of sacks, (Cal’s 25 against Miami’s 23). Both have also given up comparable numbers in tackles for loss, with Cal allowing 77 and Miami surrendering 69.

The Difference is the Run
The differences in both offensive squads however, begin to appear when talking about each team’s respective rushing attacks.

Miami’s running game only features one real threat in sophomore Graig Cooper. Cooper features some nice burst averaging 4.89 YPC, but hasn’t put it all together for huge chunks of yardage on the season with 778 total rushing yards, to go with his 4 TDs.

As a team, Miami has only managed 130.08 rushing yards per game (78th in the nation), with a 3.96 YPC.

If you’re a regular reader of this blog, or a Cal fan, you already know what Cal is capable of doing on the ground, but just to recap for the sake of a general comparison: Cal ranks 30th in the country in rushing for 183.67 yards per game, averaging 5.44 yards per carry. The Bears feature the Pac-10’s leading rusher in Jahvid Best who has 1394 yards on the season through just 11 games, sporting an absurd 8.01 YPC and 13 touchdowns. His backup (if you can even call him that) Shane Vereen also has a respectable 679 yards on the year, finding paydirt 4 times on the year and averaging 5.07 YPC.

Still not seeing the difference in running games? Let’s just put it like this:

Cal’s backup Shane Vereen has nearly as many yards as Miami’s leading rusher (679 vs. 778). Cal’s 3rd string back Tracey Slocum (yay!) has more yards than Miami’s backup Derron Thomas (125 vs. 111).

Next!

Miscellaneous Categories

• Cal is one of the best teams in the country in turnover margin, posting a shiny +14 on the season. Miami on the other hand, is near the bottom of the totem poll in this category, (102nd out of 120 teams) with -9 on the year.
• On Special Teams, frosh WR Travis Benjamin leads the team in kickoff returns, gaining 477 yards on 21 returns, averaging 22.71 yards per return (80th). Cal’s Jahvid Best has 378 yards on 13 returns, averaging 29.08 (8th in the country).
• Benjamin is also 25th in the country in yards per punt return, averaging 11.53 on 15 returns for 173 yards. Cal’s Syd’Quan Thompson is listed just above him at 23rd with 12.29 yards per return on 28 returns for 344 yards.
  

In Closing
All in all, both Miami and Cal are pretty similar statistically in some categories, while being completely different in others. The Bears have generally put up better numbers though, and should still be the favorites on Saturday.

Again, that’s why you play the game though. The game isn’t won on stat sheet folks.