Keys to the Game: USC

(It's time to rumble)

Despite my previous post that Cal fans might be instilled with levels of “Yes We Can” optimism following the historical election, some may be slowly settling back into the scabrous grounds of reality. We’re facing USC this weekend.

Fearful? Not really. But I’ll be honest, I’m not expecting the Bears to win this game.

Don’t get me wrong, I hope they win. I want them to win. Lord knows I want them to win. Next to Stanford, there is no other team I would like to see the Bears beat down than the boys of Troy.

But it’s hard for me to expect that to happen.

Why?

Maybe it’s because since Pete Carroll has taken over, the Trojans have posted the best record college football with a ridiculous 83-15 record, with 6 of those losses coming in Carroll’s first rebuilding year. Meaning, since 2001, the Trojans are 77-9, while snatching up two national titles, six consecutive top-four finishes and Pac-10 titles in the process.

Maybe it’s because this Saturday marks the 87th consecutive week in which the Trojans are ranked.

Maybe it’s because Pete Carroll is a perfect 24-0 at USC in the month of November. He does not lose this time of the year.

Maybe it’s because the Trojans have outscored their opponents 214-20 in the last five games, shutting out 3 of their last four.

Maybe it’s because, quite simply, the Bears are facing off against a team from the greatest dynasty in college football history.

Can the Bears beat the Trojans? Absolutely. But considering the opponent on Saturday, they can ill-afford to make any mistakes and will have to click on ALL cylinders to do so.

Let’s break it down:

Defense Must Again Save the Day
The defense this season thus far has been a success by anyone’s standards. To say that the Bears would not have seen the level of success they have had this year without their defense, would be a monumental understatement.

With that having been said, the Cal’s defense will have to be disciplined and execute perfectly on Saturday. I don’t think Cal’s defense matches up too poorly with the USC’s offense.

USC features a solid stable of 5-star running back recruits in Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson, and CJ Gable. The three split carries to average over 205 yards on the ground as a team, and are going to be productive against any defense. However, I think the 3-4 has shown that as long as Cal’s defenders follow their assignments, and focus on making the proper tackles, they can contain USC’s rushing offense from taking over the game.

It gets a little sketchier in terms of the passing game though. Mark Sanchez’s inconsistently has been widely overblown, and Sanchez still leads the Pac-10 in passing efficiency with 22 passing touchdowns, 1,884 yards and a 163.3 passer rating. Moreover, USC’s receivers feature a pretty strong size advantage over Cal’s talented, but undersized secondary.

Cal’s defensive line will have their work cut out for them against USC’s offensive line that has only allowed 9 sacks all season. If Cal can get enough pressure on Sanchez without having to commit too many of their linebackers, and can flush him out of the pocket into different zone packages, Cal may be able to continue its ways of leading the nation in interceptions.


Offense will have to play its best game all year
My biggest concern lies in the matchup between the Bears’ offense against the Trojans’ defense.

The Bears have beaten and rolled over some mediocre teams this year, solely on the strength of their defense or special teams. Case in point, Kevin Riley passed for just 59 yards in a 42-7 win over CSU, and just 51 yards in a 66-3 romp over WSU. Fortunately, Cal excelled in other facets in the game to make up for any deficiencies on offense.

That’s not going to cut it against the best defense (statistically) in the country. The Trojans are first in the Football Bowl Subdivision in total defense (211.6 yards per game), scoring defense (7.1 points per game) and opponent passer rating (82.3). They have held their last three opponents to a combined 488 yards and have forced seven turnovers.

Granted those opponents have included two of the worst teams in the nation (Wash and WSU), but one can’t deny the quality of this defense.

So what do the Bears have to do on offense?

The Bears are going to have be balanced. They can’t look to capitalize on any particular defensive unit, with the Trojans leading the conference in both passing and rushing defense. They will have to continue to keep the Trojans guessing and can’t afford to get conservative or be typical with their playcalling for any minute. Once the Trojans start keying on the run, they will have to pass to set up the run. Once they begin blitzing any fewer than two defenders, they will have to go back to draws and power run formations.

Coaching will have to get the plays in quickly, to allow either Riley or Longshore enough time to make his pre-snap reads to get a sense of where the blitzes might be coming. Because this defense will blitz, hard, often and from nearly every direction.

While perfect execution from every player goes without saying (no drops, missed assignments, turnovers), the onus may fall on the coaching staff and the quarterback to make sure everything up to the snap sets the Bears up for success.

(USC does not lose here)

Win the Turnover Battle…By A Lot
No turnovers. Nearly impossible right? But I’m serious. The Bears have excelled this year in the turnover category, leading the conference with a +8 turnover margin.

However, with a matchup of this proportion, against a team this good, Cal won’t be able to squeak by with a -1 turnover margin like it did against Oregon. The Trojans are a selfish bunch, and will not give as many gifts as other teams have done. The Bears will have to be hungry and will need to recover any fumble, or bait as many passes as it can get.

On the flip side, the Bears can absolutely not afford to give up the ball, once. One turnover may be the difference between a 3 point win and a 2 touchdown loss. It’s that critical. Whether it’s Kevin Riley or Nate Longshore leading the drives, the Bears won’t be able to get by with any interceptions. And if Riley’s concussion forces Longshore out there, Nate is going to have to do better than the two touchdowns and 4 interceptions he’s thrown against USC in his past two starts.

“So…you’re telling me there’s a chance!”
Yes there’s a chance. The Bears can go against the college football gods that have bestowed such ridiculous success against the Trojans and go against history, while writing their own.

But they’re pretty much going to have play the game of their lives. USC doesn’t usually beat themselves (unless it’s Stanford). The Bears are going to have to execute, the coaches will have to try and stay one step ahead at all times, and by golly, we’re going to need just a little bit of luck.

Prediction?
USC 27 Cal 17

What I hope for:
Cal 31 USC 27 on a last minute TD strike from Longshore to Boateng.