Keys to the Game: Oregon

("Oh hell...to the yes.")

Very few conference rivalries achieve the consistent level of excitement as Cal v. Oregon. Since Coach Jeff Tedford left the Oregon program as its offensive coordinator to become the head coach at Cal, no other series for Cal has had come close to consistently churning out nail biters and close games between these typically evenly matched teams.

Ken Crawford has a pretty good breakdown of the history of this exciting series.

Knowing the game is more than likely to be decided on the final play, very few things get me as pumped (while knocking off a few years of my life) as when Cal faces off against Oregon.

This year shouldn’t be too different.

Oregon, again features a potent offense, highlighted by its videogame like running game, and also features a monster defensive line and scrappy secondary. Cal comes into the game riding on the strength of its new 3-4 defense, and will have answer questions regarding inconsistency on offense. Its banged up patchwork of an offensive line shouldn’t provide much comfort.

Let’s breakdown the top keys to the game.

Pass Protection
On offense, this will be the biggest key to success. Oregon features one of the fiercest pass rushes off the edge in the country, led by DEs Nick Reed and Will Tukuafu who lead the conference in both Tackles for Loss and Sacks. Under normal circumstances, this would be reason enough to worry. But with injuries to our offensive line (out: RTs Chet Teofilo and Matt Laird, as well as a banged up Noris Malele), Cal will featuring an offensive line that consists of second and third stringers.

Both tackles Donovan Edwards and Mitchell Schwartz will have their toughest test of the season, and their ability to limit the damage off the edge will give Cal a fighting chance in the game. However, if Cal’s O-line begins to resemble the 49ers,’ then you might see their passing game follow suite. Translation: a lot of 3 and outs, and some turnovers.

One has to think this is the biggest reason Riley will get the starting nod, due to his mobility and ability to make plays when pressured in the pocket. But one has to also think that Tedford liked in Riley’s decision making, with Riley avoiding any costly turnovers when pressured in the pocket. Considering the expected level of pocket pressure, and the game’s near certainty that it will be a close contest, both factors with Riley could be huge.


Force Masoli to pass
Oregon features the 5th best rushing attack in the nation, averaging 278.75 yards per game on the ground. Let me repeat that. 278.75 rushing yards.

A big part of their rushing success in recent games have come on the legs of their QB Jeremiah Masoli who has rushed for 255 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries in the past two games.

“I think of myself a passer first.” – Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli

Well that must be fun to say and all, but Masoli’s numbers indicate otherwise. While Masoli has been ripping it up on the ground, he has only passed for a meager 189 yards in those games.

While I don’t question Masoli’s ability to throw the ball, it’s obvious that a strong part of Oregon’s offense revolves around keeping Masoli as a legitimate running threat. If Cal can limit Masoli and the running crew on first and second down, and force the Ducks into constant passing situations, Cal stands a good chance at preventing Oregon from putting up Madden like numbers on Saturday.

Fortunately, I believe Cal’s 3-4 defense will be a good match against the run. Let’s not forget that it was Cal’s success running the 3-4 against spread rushing offenses like the one Cal faced last year against Air Force that even got Cal considering making the switch in the first place. I believe Cal has the speed and athleticism on defense to chase the Oregon rushers from stretching the field too vertically.

If they can match that speed with a physical brand of defense, which they will need against running backs Jeremiah Johnson and LaGarrette Blounte, Cal won’t be able to stop Oregon from scoring, but they’ll be able to limit them.

Special Teams
I’m not Miss Cleo. I’m not that weird dude on FOX who can speak to dead people. I even suck at picking which helmet is hiding the ball in that helmet switch game played on the giant screen at Memorial Stadium (it IS luck).

Point is, I can’t tell the future. I don’t what aspect of Special Teams will be our downfall or our potential savior on Saturday, but I’ve got a feeling Special Teams will be involved somehow. It usually is, and has been, in the close games Cal has played with Oregon the past few years. Remember the missed extra point in 2004? The missed field goal in 2005 to push the game into overtime? DJax’s punt return which pushed Cal’s momentum over the edge in 2006? The field goal that sailed OVER the crossbar in 2007?

There were obviously a lot of other major factors involved in those games, but Special Teams can’t have a performance like they did last week against UCLA. They can’t give up big field position on kickoff or punt returns to a dangerous Duck Offense. They can’t afford to miss more than one field goal, or ANY extra points. And they certainly can’t allow punts to be blocked for a crucial 6 points in what is bound to be a game decided by less than a TD.

At the same time, Cal blocking a kick, or forcing a fumble on a kickoff return, or a big return by Syd’Quan might be just what the Bears need to spark their momentum when playing at home.

Which will it be? I don’t know. But I know it will matter.

Heads or Tails?

Jekyll and Hyde type of performances might have worked against Arizona State or UCLA, but they won’t work against the Ducks. Is there a chance the Ducks might be overrated? Maybe. But looking at our history against them, it will hardly matter.

And especially considering the conference ramifications, this is undoubtedly the biggest game of the year for the Bears. As each game from here on out will be.

I’m just going to say it: Cal will need to play its best game of the season to beat the Ducks on Saturday. The team will have to be balanced and consistent on offense, disciplined on defense, and nearly flawless on Special Teams.

Will the Bears win? Hell if I know. But it will be fun to find out.

Prediction (if I have to): Bears 28 Oregon 24