Keys to the Game: Arizona State

(Remember when this was the big QB Matchup 2 years ago? It could be again...)

Saturday’s game against Arizona State is the biggest game thus far for Cal this season. I know, I know. Every game counts. Which is true. But this one is big.

True, a bit of the luster has been lost with ASU’s disappointing start to the season (2-2 including a blowout home loss to Georgia), and Cal’s injuries and inconsistency on offense have kept Bears fans from being too excited about a 3-1 record.

But the conference implications are huge. Arizona State had entered the season as preseason favorites to finish second in the conference. Cal had been pegged by many media outlets to finish around the fourth spot. With USC’s loss last Thursday to Oregon State however, the conference race has opened up. A Trojan loss to Oregon on Saturday however, could blow the whole thing right open.

All of which makes Saturday’s game so incredibly important. The winner will be sitting on two conference wins and in strong position to finish in the top third of the conference. The loser could see the hopes of a conference title or a more respectable conference bowl game swirl down the ruddy drains at Memorial Stadium.

Despite its magnitude, I find myself writing up this week’s Keys to the Game feature with less time than usual to really key in on some actual analysis. So instead, I’ll key in on the obvious.

Dominate the line—Ergo, Dominate Rudy Carpenter

I write about getting to the opponent’s QB in nearly every Keys to the Game writeup, but seriously, I really mean it this time. Despite ASU Head Coach Dennis Erickson’s insistence that ASU will come out running more, the Sun Devils throw the ball. That’s just what they do, ok? So don’t try and mess with Derrickson. We’re on to you.

Veteran senior Rudy Carpenter is throwing his way into ASU records books, and is the obvious focal point on the Sun Devil offense. However, this is mostly attributed to ASU’s struggling rushing game, which currently ranks 110th out of 119 teams in Division 1 Ball.

The return of RB Keegan Herring figures to help (please no pitches to the outside, our defense doesn’t like that), especially when Bears fans remember the way Keegan contributed in ripping Cal a new one on the ground in last year' win. But how much Herring will matter remains to be seen, with ASU’s patchwork offensive line that features a plethora of young green talent.

So what’s a slinging QB to do? Pass the ball. Limiting that will come down to Cal’s front seven. Carpenter has shown me he’s a tough QB who can take a licking, but still come out slinging. But any QB will get rattled with enough pressure. Whether it’s throwing it away more, or forcing Rudy to get it off sooner than he would like to disrupt his rhythm with his wide receivers, or some solid hits, Cal will need to dominate ASU’s line to see much success on defense.

If worse comes to worst, we’ll see how Cal’s newly improved secondary will match up against ASU’s solid receiving corps.


1st and 10, Do it Again…Just Do It.
Defensively, Arizona State appears to be fairly middle of the road in all categories

• 4th in the conference in scoring defense: 20 points per game
  
• 5th in the conference in passing defense: 196.0 yard per game
  
• 6th in the conference in rushing defense: 140.75 yards per game
  
• 6th in the conference in total defense: 336.8 yards per game

With no glaring weakness or obvious strength, Cal’s mixed bag of offensive tricks will need consistency more than ever. Expect a heavy emphasis on the running game, even with Best out of the game. Most of the team and fans are fairly confident Shane Vereen and Tracey Slocum will ensure there is little dropoff in the running game with Jahvid Best out.

So, it may come down to Cal’s erratic, and at times unimpressive passing game. Apparently, the QB battle has been good for both Nate Longshore and Kevin Riley in practice, as both have looked sharp, although neither have separated themselves as the clear cut starter.

The biggest key for either QB will be to simply run the offense, gets some solid drives going early, and minimize any costly turnovers. Because I expect the game to be close, the difference may not be a big play on offense, but preventing the Sun Devils from having a big play on defense. Neither will need to do anything spectacular to win the game. They’ll just need to keep their team in it.

Battle Emotion with Emotion
This deals more with the intangibles than anything else. Arizona State is going to show up to play. They’re hungry, no, more like desperate for a win here. After embarrassing defeats to UNLV and Georgia, the Sun Devils are going to be eager to wipe the bad taste out of their mouths and get back on to winning ways.

A loss on Saturday however, could be the midway point to a possible five game losing streak with a game at USC, and against Oregon following afterwards. Yikes.

So while the Sun Devils will probably be fired up, it will be important Cal to fight fire with fire. It will be a bit difficult to do with the recently reopened Cal QB competition, having some of the star players out of the game (Best, Guarnero, Rulon Davis), and a possibly muted crowd with the anticipated forecast of rain, but Cal will have to show up, fired up.

("It's gonna rain!")

The Bears know what’s on the line. The question is whether their urgency will match the Sun Devils’ desperation.

Overall
Yes, I thought the Sun Devils were incredibly overrated entering into the season. And I thought so last year despite their nice 10-3 run. With a 2-2 record, a chance to not even hit the .500 mark by the end of November, you can’t really call them overrated anymore…

But I still think they’re a solid football team. And they can be an incredibly dangerous one. For the most part, they have the coaching, the players, and the offensive system to give our team fits on Saturday.

I’m worried about this game, but not particularly scared, if that makes sense. It should be an evenly matched game. With all considered, I think the difference might be one or two big plays. Prediction: Cal 31 Arizona State: 27

In the end, this game, more than anything, will go a long way to revealing whether Cal will step up as a contender in the conference this year, or whether they’ll slide into the middle of the pack for the rest of the season.