Thursday, October 30, 2008
Keys to the Game: Oregon
Very few conference rivalries achieve the consistent level of excitement as Cal v. Oregon. Since Coach Jeff Tedford left the Oregon program as its offensive coordinator to become the head coach at Cal, no other series for Cal has had come close to consistently churning out nail biters and close games between these typically evenly matched teams.
Ken Crawford has a pretty good breakdown of the history of this exciting series.
Knowing the game is more than likely to be decided on the final play, very few things get me as pumped (while knocking off a few years of my life) as when Cal faces off against Oregon.
This year shouldn’t be too different.
Oregon, again features a potent offense, highlighted by its videogame like running game, and also features a monster defensive line and scrappy secondary. Cal comes into the game riding on the strength of its new 3-4 defense, and will have answer questions regarding inconsistency on offense. Its banged up patchwork of an offensive line shouldn’t provide much comfort.
Let’s breakdown the top keys to the game.
Pass Protection
On offense, this will be the biggest key to success. Oregon features one of the fiercest pass rushes off the edge in the country, led by DEs Nick Reed and Will Tukuafu who lead the conference in both Tackles for Loss and Sacks. Under normal circumstances, this would be reason enough to worry. But with injuries to our offensive line (out: RTs Chet Teofilo and Matt Laird, as well as a banged up Noris Malele), Cal will featuring an offensive line that consists of second and third stringers.
Both tackles Donovan Edwards and Mitchell Schwartz will have their toughest test of the season, and their ability to limit the damage off the edge will give Cal a fighting chance in the game. However, if Cal’s O-line begins to resemble the 49ers,’ then you might see their passing game follow suite. Translation: a lot of 3 and outs, and some turnovers.
One has to think this is the biggest reason Riley will get the starting nod, due to his mobility and ability to make plays when pressured in the pocket. But one has to also think that Tedford liked in Riley’s decision making, with Riley avoiding any costly turnovers when pressured in the pocket. Considering the expected level of pocket pressure, and the game’s near certainty that it will be a close contest, both factors with Riley could be huge.
Force Masoli to pass
Oregon features the 5th best rushing attack in the nation, averaging 278.75 yards per game on the ground. Let me repeat that. 278.75 rushing yards.
A big part of their rushing success in recent games have come on the legs of their QB Jeremiah Masoli who has rushed for 255 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries in the past two games.
“I think of myself a passer first.” – Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli
Well that must be fun to say and all, but Masoli’s numbers indicate otherwise. While Masoli has been ripping it up on the ground, he has only passed for a meager 189 yards in those games.
While I don’t question Masoli’s ability to throw the ball, it’s obvious that a strong part of Oregon’s offense revolves around keeping Masoli as a legitimate running threat. If Cal can limit Masoli and the running crew on first and second down, and force the Ducks into constant passing situations, Cal stands a good chance at preventing Oregon from putting up Madden like numbers on Saturday.
Fortunately, I believe Cal’s 3-4 defense will be a good match against the run. Let’s not forget that it was Cal’s success running the 3-4 against spread rushing offenses like the one Cal faced last year against Air Force that even got Cal considering making the switch in the first place. I believe Cal has the speed and athleticism on defense to chase the Oregon rushers from stretching the field too vertically.
If they can match that speed with a physical brand of defense, which they will need against running backs Jeremiah Johnson and LaGarrette Blounte, Cal won’t be able to stop Oregon from scoring, but they’ll be able to limit them.
Special Teams
I’m not Miss Cleo. I’m not that weird dude on FOX who can speak to dead people. I even suck at picking which helmet is hiding the ball in that helmet switch game played on the giant screen at Memorial Stadium (it IS luck).
Point is, I can’t tell the future. I don’t what aspect of Special Teams will be our downfall or our potential savior on Saturday, but I’ve got a feeling Special Teams will be involved somehow. It usually is, and has been, in the close games Cal has played with Oregon the past few years. Remember the missed extra point in 2004? The missed field goal in 2005 to push the game into overtime? DJax’s punt return which pushed Cal’s momentum over the edge in 2006? The field goal that sailed OVER the crossbar in 2007?
There were obviously a lot of other major factors involved in those games, but Special Teams can’t have a performance like they did last week against UCLA. They can’t give up big field position on kickoff or punt returns to a dangerous Duck Offense. They can’t afford to miss more than one field goal, or ANY extra points. And they certainly can’t allow punts to be blocked for a crucial 6 points in what is bound to be a game decided by less than a TD.
At the same time, Cal blocking a kick, or forcing a fumble on a kickoff return, or a big return by Syd’Quan might be just what the Bears need to spark their momentum when playing at home.
Which will it be? I don’t know. But I know it will matter.
Heads or Tails?
Jekyll and Hyde type of performances might have worked against Arizona State or UCLA, but they won’t work against the Ducks. Is there a chance the Ducks might be overrated? Maybe. But looking at our history against them, it will hardly matter.
And especially considering the conference ramifications, this is undoubtedly the biggest game of the year for the Bears. As each game from here on out will be.
I’m just going to say it: Cal will need to play its best game of the season to beat the Ducks on Saturday. The team will have to be balanced and consistent on offense, disciplined on defense, and nearly flawless on Special Teams.
Will the Bears win? Hell if I know. But it will be fun to find out.
Prediction (if I have to): Bears 28 Oregon 24
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Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Bear Bits: Riley will start, Vote for Mack, and Recruiting Update
A few notes as we officially begin Duck Hunting Season this week.
All signs point to Kevin Riley starting this Saturday when the Bears host the Oregon Ducks. After several weeks of not announcing the starter until a few days or just before the game, Coach Tedford announced during his weekly press conference that Riley is the starter...for now. The team will gameplan around Riley starting, but will still continue to split first team reps between Riley and Nate Longshore.
Tedford appeared to be happy about how Riley played on Saturday, with the biggest plus being Riley's decision making and avoiding any costly turnovers. He also proceeded to maintain that he would prefer not to go with a two quarterback system and just have one established starter - it just hasn't happened yet. Tedford also dismissed the continued splitting of reps deeply affecting their chemistry with the receivers.
Hmm. Your guys' thoughts?
Be Ready for Oregon
Coach Tedford also made his usual plea for fan support to help the Bears create a difficult home atmosphere against the Ducks and their spread offense.
Coach Tedford: "People should get an extra hour of sleep or whatever, have a little bit more tailgate or do whatever they need to do, but we need our crowd this week."
Translation: Even if it means getting blazed before the game, Bears fans need to come ready to rock.
FINE! I'm not a drinker, but if Tedford says so...
Someone emailed this link to me asking that I post this on the site: Your opportunity to vote for Alex Mack for the Lowe's Senior Class Award. Would love to. Cal fans should be thanking the football gods daily that Big Mack decided to stick around for his senior year. Our offensive line, entire offense, and the team wouldn't be the same without his play or his leadership.
The guy is also an absolute friendly bear off the field, and was one of the nicest players to talk to during the fan appreciation day, actually getting up out of his seat to take a photo with yours truly. He must have known greatness when he saw me. Cough.
Greg Biggins with the ESPN West Coast Recruiting Blog has some good stuff regarding possible Cal prospects.
The two most interesting notes is standout defensive lineman Deandre Coleman, who recently backed out of an early commitment to Washington (can't blame you kid) has Cal at the top of his list while also considering UCLA, both Arizona schools, and Colorado.
"Coach [Tosh] Lupoi has been recruiting me for awhile and I really like him a lot. I liked the campus, the players on the team, basically everything about the visit was cool."
Although nothing is certain, Coleman would be an absolute great get as a future stud at Cal's critical nose tackle position.
Also, wide receiver Caleve Deboskie, brother of current Cal redshirt running back Covaughn Deoskie, received his official offer from Wyoming, and is fielding potential offers from San Diego State, Utah, Montana State, as well as Oregon State. No word yet as to the level of interest Cal has in nabbing the second Deboskie brother, or if Caleve would like to even consider going to the same school as Covaughn.
Let's hope so. Caleve already has 23 catches for 493 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. Would mind another pass catching threat at all…
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Tuesday, October 28, 2008
UCLA Helmet Stickers and Play of the Game
Defensive Player of the Game: Mike Mohammed
It was a standout game for many Cal defenders. While it was difficult to choose, I thought it appropriate to give this week's helmet sticker to a player who's been solid all season long.
Coming into the season, a number of fans were perplexed as to why Mohammed, who had done fairly well in a backup role the previous season wasn't chosen as the fourth linebacker in the new 3-4 scheme, with the spot instead going to Eddie Young.
At the time, Defensive Coordinator Bob Gregory explained that Mohammed would be more beneficial as a utility linebacker, because of his ability to play all four linebacker spots on the field. The results thus far have been outstanding with Mohammed currently second on the team in tackles. In fact, in his utility role, Mohammed has actually seen more reps this season than any other linebacker.
Saturday was a bit of a breakout game for Mohammed, who has been solid thus far this season. Mohammed posted 9 tackles including a sack and another tackle for a loss. His also ran his first career interception in for a touchdown to seal the game for the Bears in the fourth quarter. Also, a play that might go unnoticed to some in the midst of a day shrouded number of quirky plays, took place in the closing minutes of the first half, when the Bruins faced a 3rd and 1 inside the Cal's 5 yard line. Tt was Mike Mohammed who chased down Khalil Bell for a loss as Bell raced towards the first down marker to hold the Bruins to a field goal on that drive.
[Update: Mohammed was just named Defensive Pac-10 Player of the Week]
Congrats Mike, and keep it up.
Honorable Mentions:
Syd'Quan Thompson: 10 tackles, 2 pass breakups
Tyson Alualu: 6 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 tipped balls from line of scrimmage
Marcus Ezeff: 2 INTs (1 returned for a TD)
Offensive Player of the Game: Jahvid Best
Jahvid Best was again one of the few bright spots for an offensive unit that by and large, struggled for the first three quarters of the game. Best was productive on the ground, consistently gaining positive yardage on most his runs, despite being hampered by a nagging sprained ankle. Best rushed 17 times for 115 yards, including a spectacular 34 yard touchdown score. Again, watch it in slow motion and be amazed.
Honorable Mentions
Kevin Riley: 11-22 for 153 yards, 2 TDs
Shane Vereen: 14 rushes, 99 yards, 1 TD
Nyan Boateng: 2 catches, 67 yards, 1 TD
Play of the Game: 53 yard Flea Flicker TD pass
It was an interesting day in the sense that while the offense was bogged down for most of the game, there were still a handful of highlight reel plays that would deceive a highlights only viewer to believe that Cal was an offensive juggernaut.
Jeremy Ross' E-Honda-like double stiff arm kick return drew some "oohs" from the crowd, as did his leap over a UCLA defender on a reverse. It didn't matter that the run was called back on Riley's illegal block in the back, the crowd was still impressed.
Marcus Ezeff and Mike Mohammed's interception returns were also fun to watch.
But the honor this week goes to the 53-yard flea flicker from Riley to Boateng that re-energized the team, the crowd, and sparked the Cal team to roll onto 24 straight points in the fourth quarter. But it was also special for other reasons.
It was almost as if the play were like a super move in Street Fighter that took the entire battle to charge up. The play would not have worked had Cal not consistently run the ball throughout the game to bait the safeties to move up and bite on the fake toss.
Also impressive, was Kevin Riley's ability to sidestep a rushing Brian Price who beat Noris Malele at the line, before launching the ball deep. I'm not so sure that play would have been made with Longshore in the pocket.
Finally, the play was sweet vindication for a Cal team who had been burned deep by the same play last year against the Bruins down in the Rose Bowl. Karma's a biznatch eh?
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Sunday, October 26, 2008
UCLA Recap
Like a number of wins this season, Cal’s win over UCLA on Saturday wasn’t completely satisfying. In fact, I would say that the first two and half quarters consisted of some of the sloppiest play on offense I had seen in quite some time. While Cal did manage not to turn the ball over, nearly every other aspect of Cal’s offense appeared to be out of sync and at times, nearly unwatchable. Although the outcome of the game was never really in question, considering UCLA’s ability to rally back in close games, I was still a bit anxious going into the fourth quarter with the Bears holding on to a four point lead.
With that said, I was encouraged to see Cal really pull it together and close the game strongly. The flea flicker re-energized the crowd and gave Cal the spark and momentum to dominate the remainder of the game.
Let’s get to a couple of points:
Defense Bears, Defense
Cal got back into its winning defensive ways against a lackluster UCLA offense. Cal absolutely shut down the UCLA running game, holding the Bruins to only16 total rushing yards. While the Bruins weren’t ever a threat to run the ball, it was a great opportunity for the Bears to regain some swagger and get back to the basics of following their gap assignments, shedding blocks, and wrapping up with solid tackles.
Moreover, the Bears made the day miserable for UCLA QB Kevin Craft, and consequently, Coach Rick Neuheisel who was seen verbally taking Craft to the woodshed on the sidelines at various points through the game. Those moments usually came after the 4 interceptions Craft threw, two of which were taken to the house for touchdowns.
While the Bears did allow Craft to throw for 206 yards, mainly on some soft zone coverage, the Bears did hold Craft to completing less than 50% of his passes. Also, you can’t ever really complain when your secondary comes up with four interceptions on the day.
All in all, the Bears did what they were supposed to do against a much inferior offense. I would have been much more concerned about the remainder of Cal’s season had they allowed more points. Really, the Bears kept the Bruins out of the end zone on offense until the waning minutes which was really the result of some poor Special Teams play. Which reminds me…
Special Teams
..Yeah, it was not a good day for the Special Teams. The Bruins jumped out to an early lead after blocking and recovering Bryan Anger’s punt in the end zone. The Bears also nearly gave up a fake punt play that would have converted, had Aaron Perez, UCLA’s kicker, thrown the ball a yard further.
The Bears also had to burn a timeout midway through the third after lining up with only ten players on the punt return team, and the kick off team also gave up a huge 82 yard kick off return late in the game which set up UCLA’s only offensive touchdown.
Needless to say, not a bright day for Pete Alamar or his ST unit. This is an area that can and will continue to hurt the Bears as they face off against some solid special teams squads in the next three weeks, unless they turn some things around.
I was encouraged however, to see kicker Giorgio Tavecchio’s continued progress as both a place kicker and field goal kicker. The Italian Stallion (not an official nickname, I’m just rolling with it right now) showed off a pretty decent leg on most of his kickoffs, placing most inside the five yard line, and was good on both field goals from 26 and 42 yards out.
Quarterback Play
The ongoing saga of this season’s quarterback controversy opened another chapter on Saturday with Riley taking the field as the starter, after losing the job to Nate Longshore the previous games.
How’d he do?
The good news was that Riley avoided committing any costly turnovers, something that was a relief to most Cal fans in the stadium, who cheered heavily for the fan favorite QB after his name was announced as the starter.
The bad news, was that Riley didn’t really set the field on fire, as he and the offense continued to misfire on a number of facets. The offense struggled to move the ball through most of the game, and Riley went into the half with only 33 yards passing.
While Riley did pick it up a bit in the second half, his performance (11-22, 153 yards, and 2 TDs) wasn’t enough to get most to jump for joy. It was enough however, to make one think that Riley will most likely be the starter going into the Oregon game.
Wide Receivers Consistent in Inconsistency
The wide receiver play didn’t really help Riley or the offense all that much on Saturday. The receivers continued to drop a number of balls. Granted, a number of the catches were certainly tough catches and at times, a bit overthrown, but still ones that just had to be caught in some of those situations. Cal was fortunate that the drops that stalled a number of the drives didn’t end up ultimately costing the game for the Bears. However, it wouldn’t surprise me a single bit if similar performances to the one that the Bears’ receiving corps. had on Saturday ended up doing just that in the near future.
You see that Lightning?
It was a bit of a relief to see Cal’s running game come in and put on a dominant performance against a porous run defense. UCLA had come into the game 97th in the country in rushing yards allowed per game at 182.6. Cal was able to appropriately take advantage of the Bruins’ patchwork defensive line, piling up 232 yards on the ground.
It also was good to see Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen get near the same number of carries. I said last week, that Cal would need to distribute the load a bit more between both backs to prevent Best from getting too worn down early on. The results were encouraging with Best gaining 115 yards and a TD on 17 carries, and Vereen amassing 99 of his own on 14 rushes.
Best appears to be back to his usual self after that dislocated elbow. That 34 yard touchdown run? Absolutely ridiculous. Watch that one in slow motion. He just made a number of Bruins look silly.
Oh and Tracy Slocum, there you are! I was wondering where you went. Ahh, 34 yards on 5 carries? Okie gotcha.
Miscellaneous Bits
-Some of the penalties were absolutely brutal. It was by far the sloppiest game of this season in terms of drive ending penalties.
-The Cal half time show was one of the best ones in recent memory. One of the best reenactments of the play thrown together with awesome sports broadcasting music? Classic.
Certainly, one of the most entertaining since the infamous video game half time show.
Moving Forward
Okay look, I’m not usually a “sky is falling despite a 3 touchdown victory” kind of guy. Naturally, one has to be encouraged by a lot of the things seen on Saturday. The re-emergence of some creativity on offense. A solid running game. Defensive domination.
However, there appear to be a number of issues that one would have hoped to have progressed by this point in the season. Namely: stability in the passing game, the emergence of a few go-to receivers. Furthermore, the injuries and inconsistency in the offensive line grow with each week.
My concerns can best be summed up in the statement that the current Cal offense has no identity. Granted, they can run the ball, but as we’ve seen in a number of halves, and some games, it’s not always a sure fire thing.
Going back to initial expectations, it’s a bit unfair for anyone to expect too much from an offense that currently features eight new starters. However, what is reasonable is to have assumed that there would be more progress with the season more than half way completed.
Cal faces a tough stretch the next few weeks with Oregon, USC, and Oregon State on the slate. Appropriately enough, these are the three teams that figure to be in the top third of the conference pecking order this year. Whether Cal can shore up its issues will determine whether they can show that they belong there as well.
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Rankings Update: Week 9
While the Bears didn't quite make it back into the Top 25 this week, they did make up a bit of ground after yesterday's 41-20 win over UCLA.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Keys to the Game: UCLA
Most of the discussion in this past week’s press conference and interviews with the coaches and players inevitably surrounded Cal ’s loss to Arizona. Far less has been said about Saturday’s opponent UCLA.
Saturday provides an excellent opportunity for Cal to bounce from a tough loss as they regain momentum as they officially begin their second half of their season. UCLA looks to be just the right type of team for the Bears in this situation. The Bruins aren’t terrible enough of a team for the Bears to simply cruise through the game without gaining a better sense of where or if they’ve improved. At the same time, UCLA doesn’t appear to be as dangerous of an opponent as say— Oregon or Oregon St. who has the ability to punch a team right in the mouth.
So let’s look at what the Bears need to do for the Dubya, and more importantly, show they’re ready to rebound from last week’s loss.
Regain Running Momentum
The best way for Cal to get back to its winning ways will be by getting back to their running game. Once the second best rushing attack in the conference (averaging over 180 YPG earlier in the season), Cal has seen that average fall to 168 YPG over the past few weeks. The Bears have particularly gotten away from the run in the second half of games. While game situations have certainly dictated the rushing attack’s success in recent games, Cal will need to reestablish their strength on offense on the ground.
With Jahvid Best beginning to get back into the swing of things, and the question marks that still surround Cal’s quarterback situation, Cal’s running game may be more important on Saturday than ever.
UCLA features a scrappy and athletic defense that has struggled on the road this season, but should still feature some talent up front. While the Bruins’ defensive line has had to make some positional switches due to injury at the defensive end position, they also have the luxury of featuring one of the better defensive tackle tandems in the conference in Brian Price and Brigham Harwell. Expect linebackers Reggie Carter and Akeem Ayeres to also stack the box and try to stifle Cal’s run game.
Cal needs to split reps more evenly between Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen to ensure that Best is still fresh and able to play going into the fourth quarter, where it may be critical to effectively run the ball, and milk the clock, assuming Cal can jump out to an early lead. The offensive line will also need to regain its swagger, as run blocking has taken a drop in productivity the past few weeks due to some key injuries.
Don’t let Crafty Craft get Pass Happy
UCLA’s running game isn’t much of a threat at this point, currently ranked 9th in the conference in rushing yards per game, only averaging 91 yards per game. While it will be important for Cal ’s run defense to regain some confidence against Bruins’ mediocre run game, it will be more important for the Bears to halt UCLA in the air.
UCLA QB Kevin Craft, a 3rd stringer pushed into the starting role after a series of injuries to Patrick Cowan and Ben Olsen, has already shaved about seven years off Rick Neuheisel’s life with his inconsistent play. Cowan particularly struggles the first half of games, committing the occasional turnover, prompting a flurry of cussing from Neuheisel on the sidelines. But Craft is a mobile and athletic QB who will constantly get outside of the pocket and can be a threat dangerous when given the opportunity to settle down, and is capable of creating plays and sustaining some solid drives in the second half.
Cal’s secondary will also have to bounce back after a tougher showing against Arizona’s potent passing attack by facing a solid receiving corps. in wide receivers Terrence Austin, Taylor Embree, and TE Ryan Moya who share 90 catches and 966 yards on the season. Assuming the Bears shut down the run, containing Craft and limiting the receivers from getting downfield (particularly Austin) will all but stifle any sort of offensive attack for the Bruins.
Put the Game Out of Reach by the 4th Quarter
For all of its struggles this year, UCLA has shown that it can be a tough team to put away, and has a very strong chance of stealing a win as long as it can stay in the game by the 4th quarter.
The Bruins were only down a point by the end of the 3rd quarter last weekend against Stanford, before pulling out the win on a late game pass from Craft to Cory Harkey for the 23-20 win.
Crafter had also mounted outstanding drives in the second half against Tennessee , leading the Bruins to an overtime win over the Volunteers to open the season.
They nearly did it against Oregon and Fresno State as well.
The Bears need to get out to a fast start offensively, and not let up. Even if the Bears jump out to an early lead, Cal can’t afford to give the Bruins any life in the second half, by getting too conservative on offense. UCLA has shown that if given the chance, they’ve got a way of taking advantage of it.
In Closing
All in all, UCLA provides Cal a prime opportunity to get back into its own proverbial skin. A home game against a scrappy rival team may be the best preparation as Cal buckles down for the remainder of Pac-10 play.
As much as some Cal fans started crying that the sky was falling after each respective loss, losing to a 5-2 Maryland squad or a 5-2 Arizona team isn’t really the end of the world—although the manner in which we lost both games was disparaging.
What would be incredibly disappointing however, would be if we dropped this game against a mediocre UCLA squad, at home. Then Cal fans can begin really worrying about this season. I don’t expect that to be the case though. While the score might be a bit closer than fans would like, I’m going with a Cal win.
Cal 31 UCLA 20
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Thursday, October 23, 2008
MailBag 10.23.2008
Here’s a quick Mailbag update as we wind down the week and prepare for UCLA. I’ll try and have my Keys to the Game feature up earlier than usual, as it will be Friday Fun Day at work, but no guarantees.
Dear Bears With Fangs:
Although I don't think that Longshore is incapable of making plays, I do think, and have believed for some years now, that his biggest problems are his eyes. He insists on looking straight at where he is throwing.
My solution to this is for him to wear one of those dark, shades over his helmet. This way, no one can see his eyes and he can throw to wherever he feels is best, without the CBs anticipating his throw.
Just my 2 cents.
Also, is it just me or does Tedford, or the coaches as a whole, have some requirement to call an equal amount of running vs. passing plays? Why not just use what is working? In the last game against AZ, Best had his 100 yards in the first half. Yes, I read of his elbow injury, probably from diving in for the TD, but why not call more running plays in the second half? Instead, we witnessed a ridiculous strings of 3 and outs, and interception/TDs. Why not run the ball, eat up some clock, and play to win. We were still ahead as of halftime.
- Daniel
Yeah the visor could work. But I wonder too if that might even further obstruct his vision out on the field. How about explaining that to Coach Tedford after throwing an interception.
Tedford: Nate, couldn’t you see the quadruple coverage?
Nate: Actually, not really…the tint on this new visor blocked out the safety from my view.
Tedford: …
Nate: But don’t you think I look pretty badass?
As for your second point Daniel, Tedford is an adamant fan of a balanced, pro-style offense. You’re not going to really move him too much one way or the other.
With that said, I think Tedford and Cignetti would have loved to have run the ball more in the second half…if Arizona hadn’t decided to stack 8 in the box consistently and jump out to a 15 point lead. In short, I think Tedford would have run more if he could, but the situation didn’t really allow for it.
Why is Tedford being so wishy-washy with his QBs? We are well into the season now. We should let one QB get some real game-time with his offense to build a strong chemistry with them. Do you know which QB the players like better?
-Abe
Really good question Abe. What’s so interesting about this musical chairs game for QBs is that it’s so un-Tedford-like. In fact, the biggest criticism last year from Cal fans was that Tedford was too stubborn, and kept Nate Longshore as the starter for far too long, despite his obvious injury and subsequent struggles.
I really think the main issue that stops Tedford from naming a full-fledged starter is that neither has really made the decision any easier for him. That is, neither has consistently really been that strong or played that poorly, both in games or in practice. With the exception of the Michigan State game, Riley hasn’t been able to string together a consistent four quarters in a game, and neither has Longshore. Both have shown glimpses of efficiency and at times brilliance, but both have also shown mental lapses in judgment , or have just been off.
I believe that Coach Tedford would much rather prefer either Riley or Longshore step up, grab the starting spot, and never relinquish control. It would make his life a whole lot easier. But that just hasn’t happened yet. And in Tedford’s mind, until that happens, he is going to have to treat both Longshore and Riley as two different weapons in his offense’s arsenal, and will go with whatever seems to be working at that particular time and place.
Abe, I haven’t heard too much about who the players prefer, and would hate to try any provide and insight about an area I’m not too familiar with. I haven’t spoken with the players. But from select coaches’ and players’ comments, I know Nate has the respect of a number of veterans and younger players on the team. Whether that’s a widespread opinion, I just don’t know.
To BearsWithFangs, Watching that game (Arizona) was utterly painful, yet utterly Cal. We do crap like this all the time - blow leads, choke when it counts, throw interceptions at precisely the wrong time, drop passes when we shouldn't ... Bottom line - we are NOT clutch under pressure.
A very flustered "Go Bears!".
On the upside this weekend, we get to chant, "What's a Bruin anyways?!?!" And (knock on wood) UCLA should not require clutch play.
Korey
You’re right Korey, Cal has shown its propensity to blow leads, and make its share of untimely turnovers late in the game. But considering that Coach Tedford has won more than two-thirds of his games here at Cal, I don’t know if you can say we do it all the time.
You’re right, we haven’t shown ourselves to be super clutch, but again, we need to re-evaluate our expectations. What would be considered “clutch” anyway? Going undefeated? Winning half your games in a last-minute scores?
How many teams really do that these days?
I know what you’re saying Korey. Losses like the one to Arizona hurt, and force us to think more about our failures, than our more usual successes. But in the brutal and heartbreaking world of college football, almost every team and every fan base has experienced what Cal fans went through on Saturday, and many times prior.
So cheer up, and suck on this.
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Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Arizona Helmet Stickers and Play of the Game
After coming off a tough loss with players, coaches and fans all looking for answers, one thing was evident -- the loss was on everyone. From the defense, offense, special teams, to the coaches, not a single unit was innocent of not making their share of mistakes on Saturday night.
With that said, there were some notable performances in a night most are already looking to forget.
Offensive Player of the Game Verran Tucker
Tucker busted onto the scene with one of the best performances by a Cal wide receiver all season. Tucker had 4 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown score (his second of the season).
While our receivers have been inconsistent all year, it was both refreshing and encouraging to see a receiver step up and have a solid outing, especially with fellow WR Michael Calvin’s season ending with injury earlier in the week.
Now if only a receiver could be “that guy” consistently, week to week.
Honorable Mentions
Jahvid Best: 107 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 catches, 33 yards.
The first half version of Nate Longshore: 16-25 for 172 yards and 2 TDs.
Defensive Player of the Game: Worrell Williams
Saturday wasn’t a bright day for the defensive unit. For every nice play such as a forced fumble, or a sack, or an interception, there seemed to be twice as many missed gap assignments, poor tackles, and out of position plays.
No one player really stood out, for both reasons bad and good.
With that said, I still saw some nice plays out middle linebacker Worrell Williams, particularly his well timed blitzes that disrupted the backfield, including a nice sack on Arizona QB Willie Tuitama. Williams also had 6 solo tackles on the day.
Honorable Mentions
Anthony Felder: 7 tackles (5 solo), 1 TFL, 1 interception
Zack Follett: 7 tackles (6 solo), 1 sack.
Play of the Game: Jahvid Best’s 67 yard touchdown run
Jahvid Best’s 67 yarder in the second quarter again showed flashes of how special he can be once he gets out into the open field. Unlike some of his other long runs this year, Best had to actually make some nifty moves before displaying his speed in outrunning Zona defenders before scoring. The TD run tied the game back up for the Bears (14-14) and temporarily halted the momentum that had been swinging into Arizona’s direction—until the third quarter that is.
The one downer was his unnecessary dive into the endzone. Not sure if it contributed to his sore elbow, but it’s still something you’d like to have your star running back do when coming back from a dislocated elbow injury. Just a thought.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Cal Player and Former Cal Player Arrested on Robbery Charges
I'll let the major media outlets doing the reporting, but here's a quick breakdown:
You can find articles here and here.
The UC Berkeley Police Department arrested current Cal player R.J. Garrett and former player Gary Doxy on suspicion of robbing two male students at Clark Kerr Campus.
The two victims were actually mistaken for white male members of the Cal Crew team who had made racially-offensive comments last month at an off-campus party. The victims were held at gunpoint, actually a BB gun, and gave Garrett and Doxy their laptop and wallet.
Garrett is also charged with possessing an illegal sawed-off shotgun that he allegedly stole.
To quote SF Gate:
"Garrett is a junior fullback from Crenshaw High School in Los Angeles, where his father, Robert, is a long-time and well-respected coach. R.J. Garrett is a sixth-string fullback who, in three seasons, has never participated in an offensive play.
Doxy is a senior from Long Beach Poly High who was suspended from the team over the summer for bad grades. He was largely considered a throw-in scholarship in hopes of enticing high school teammate DeSean Jackson to come to Cal.”
"I know that the entire Cal athletics community shares my profound disappointment in the wake of these incidents," said Cal Athletic Director Sandy Barbour, referring to the robbery. "They are contrary to everything we stand for."
I’m disappointed too Sandy. What stupid, stupid things to do. Man. *Shakes head.*
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Mailbag 10.21.08
Hey everyone. So I’ve decided to start a mailbag feature. I don’t get too much mail, but it appears that Saturday’s game struck a nerve with a few folks. Giving up 42 points will do that to you. So I’ve posted just a few of the emails I’ve received, and my responses to them.
Keep the emails coming! Blogging can be a lonely sport, and I’m interested in hearing what YOU the Bears fans are thinking these days. And here we go.
“Is our defense really that good, when we give up 40+ pts to Arizona?”
-Kevin in San Jose
The short answer is “No.” Elite defenses usually don’t surrender 40+ points.
But solid defenses do have their off days. LSU gave up 51 points to a motivated Florida team, and even the vaunted Georgia defense choked up 41 to Alabama. Let’s not ignore also, that Oklahoma has surrendered 80 points the last two weeks to Texas and Kansas.
One can obviously argue about the quality offenses these teams were facing, but I can just as easily argue that when “on,” the Arizona offense has the ability to be one of the more dangerous offenses in the country as well.
Do I think our defense is really that good? No. I think we had been a bit prematurely excited about this year’s squad. I will say however, that Saturday night’s game was such an off night for this defense, and not the best indication of what we’re capable of when we’re motivated.
So “No,” we’re not really that good, but we do have the chance to be pretty solid.
“I'm on the train right now and thinking about the Bears...
When will we have another 2004-2005 season? I want to freakin go to a BCS bowl game or at least the Rose Bowl!! Losing to Arizona really pisses me off... we really have to improve our away game performance/record. We cannot just win home games!!
Honestly, we are just an average Pac-10 team, and it pains me to admit that, let alone write that in this email. I really want Tedford and the players to think over what our season motto is all about... "Every Game Counts!!" Longshore needs to know that every freakin play/pass counts!! We cannot play with carelessness at all, nor can we assume we have the game at any point. We really need to step up to the plate in the next game and kick UCLA ass. I honestly hope that we do end the season with an 8-4 record... Anything less is just unacceptable!!
P.S. With an 8-4 record, can we go to the LV bowl?"
Angry Bear fan,
Jess in Mountain View
It’s pretty evident that Jess is feeling pretty emotional about the Bears.
I could have edited her email, but I thought it was more dramatic to present her email in its full scathing glory. Although there are numerous comments and questions in there, I'll try and address a few points in there Jess.
1) Will 8-4 get us to the Las Vegas Bowl?
No way to know for sure, it depends on how the other conference teams do, since bowls go by invitation rather than strict regulation to conference standings. But back in 2005, we went to the Las Vegas bowl with a 7-4 record. So signs point to "yes." Why do you want to go to Vegas so much anyway? Other than its debaucher-ous splendor, that is.
2) When will we have another 2004-2005 season?
It might be next year (though our away schedule looks tough), or it might be the year after. We've got a really young team, and it may depend on whether any of our players leave early. The biggest missing pieces have been a lights-out defense (our 2004 squad was best in Tedford years) and a Heisman-level QB like we had in Aaron Rodgers. Who knows if we'll get there in the next two years with a senior Riley and Jahvid Best.
3) Average Pac-10 Team?
We certainly looked average on Saturday, but I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up in the top half of the Pac-10 to close the season. Case in point -- just win our remaining home games, and we're looking at an 8-4 season, going (6-3) in the conference. Not bad for a rebuilding year.
4) Kick UCLA’s ass?
If we don't beat UCLA, then it's a whole different story. I would be very, very depressed at that point. I actually semi-expected a loss to Arizona. Signs didn't look good. But a loss to Rick New-weasel and the offensively challenged Bruins...at home? Then you can begin dismissing a season.
Anything less than a win on Saturday would be near unacceptable. But cheer up, there's still a lot of football left to be played. Both this year and next.
“It's sad how weak the Pac-10 is this year. I actually hope USC makes it all the way to the BCS national championship and whups on whoever it plays. It’ll give the conference a little more legitimacy.
How can we be so bad!? It just seems like the SEC and Big 12 are so much better than everyone else. But then again, who knows. There should be more non-conference games between elite teams like what we saw with OSU and USC.”
-Josh, Boston
Hi Josh. I’d be a full to argue that the Pac-10 is strong this year. It’s pretty obvious that the SEC and Big 12 are the cream of the crop, conference wise, and everyone else is fighting just to get noticed.
However, it’s important to note that the conference’s out-of-conference record is a bit distorted by some of these matchups. Some of the conference’s weaker teams have had to play other conferences’ strongest teams. (UCLA facing BYU, Washington facing Oklahoma, WSU & Oklahoma State, ASU vs. Georgia, heck even Oregon St. having to face Penn St.)
Ted Miller actually talked about this in one of his recent postings, arguing that the conference needs to knock it off with their scheduling of ridiculously strong teams facing our mediocre or weak ones.
In essence, the conference is having a down year. But having our weaker teams march onto the field against BCS powerhouses early on in the season make us look a lot worse than we really are.
Okay, that about wraps it up for now, but again, I look forward to hearing what you guys have. Go Bears.
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Sunday, October 19, 2008
Arizona Recap
So let’s get a few things out of the way: Saturday night’s loss isn’t the end of the world. The season isn’t over. We haven’t been relegated to the Hawaii bowl (yet), and we still have a decent shot at finishing pretty well in the conference. We’re still in somewhat of a 5-way tie for first place in the conference, and we have an entire six games left to play this season.
And hey, it could be worse, we could be Washington State fans.
With that said, Saturday night’s loss sucked.
It was unsettling to say in the least, to see Cal completely unravel in the 3rd quarter after going into the half with a ten-point lead. There were plenty of issues to get to, as most media outlets probably will do this upcoming week, but here are just a few that stuck out to me.
Quarterbacking Woes
I’m going to say it: I wasn’t really happy with either quarterback last night.
Nate didn’t do anything to reverse the notion that he just doesn’t play very well in the second half of close games. Longshore was efficient and polished in the first half, going 16-25 for 172 yards with two brilliantly thrown touchdown passes. In the second half, he went 2-12 for 46 yards and an interception return for a TD.
Oh, and anyone else think the pick-six looked JUST like the one from two years ago, just seen from the other side of the field?
Coming off the bench, Riley showed good mobility in the pocket (the play in which he shook two Arizona defenders before completing a strike to his receiver was darn impressive). But even despite the fact that he came in cold, Riley also made plenty of poor decisions and continued to overshoot his receivers. Riley went 7-19 for 97 yards and an INT.
So the QB controversy continues, but for all the wrong reasons. While I wasn’t truly pleased with the QB play last night, I don’t think it’s the real reason while Cal lost either. Up until the pick-six, I thought Nate played quite well, and I think Riley might have seen better results if he hadn’t been asked to resurrect a 15 point comeback in the fourth quarter.
Not to mention that our wide receivers had a tough day, dropping numerous passes, and I don’t think Offensive Coordinator Frank Cignetti did as good of a job as he could have in adapting to Arizona’s blitzing defense.
Surprise!
It wasn’t even the emergence of Arizona RB Keola Antolin, the 5’8, 180-pound frosh running back who ran all over the field for 149 yards and three TDs. Although it was a surprise, as I found myself googling his name during the game.
No, the biggest surprise of the night was how much our defense struggled on Saturday night. For all of the leaps of improvement Cal had made on defense this year, particular our run defense, Saturday night’s performance just might have been a giant step backward.
The eeriest aspect of the game was how much last night’s defense looked a bit like the 2007 team—the second half version.
Don’t get me wrong: I think Cal’s defense played hard, and for this reason I’m convinced we’re not going to see a repeat of last year’s second half slide. I don’t believe the issue was a lack of trust or motivation. Cal just got beat defensively.
Cal’s defenders were pushed around up front, and were consistently picked up by Arizona blockers, allowing for huge holes for Antolin to run through.
Saturday night also featured the shoddiest tackling I had seen by Cal in quite some time. The Bears consistently allowed Arizona players like Gronkowksi and Antolin to run over them and slip through for extra yards on the ground, or into the endzone. Blech.
While I thought the defense had turned it around in the second quarter, forcing Arizona to a series of three-and-outs to end the half, they completely fell apart in the 3rd quarter, giving up 21 points including a perfectly thrown TD pass from Tuitama to Mike Thomas—over Syd’Quan Thompson. Admit it, you know things were going straight to hell when that happened.
Bright Spots
Yes, beleaguered Cal fans, there were some bright spots in the game. Verran Tucker coming on to the scene with 4 catches, 68 yards and a TD was nice to see. It had my friend saying, “I like this guy. He’s long, get him in the game more.” True.
It was also nice to see Jahvid Best bounce back from his elbow injury with 107 yards including an impressive 67 yard touchdown run in the second quarter. The dive into the endzone might have unnecessary though, and I’m not surprised if it was one of the reasons Best had to sit out most of the second half after admitting that he was hurting.
Finally, Giorgio Tavecchio impressed me a bit last night. Most of his kickoffs were inside the ten (hey we’ll take it), and despite missing a 50-yard field goal just slight right, he showed good accuracy and the leg to boot to reassure the coaches that he’s got the goods to be counted on in the future. Keep in mind, the kid is a walk-on soccer player who joined the team just a few days before the season opener.
Terrible Announcers
“Again you’ve got to question some of his decision making”
-Lincoln Kennedy commenting about Nate Longshore…for the fourth time.
I’m not going to spend too much time on this, but man did most of us have to put up with some terrible play calling and announcing. I intentionally tuned into the FSN broadcast because of the better broadcast quality (albeit not full HD), and because I couldn’t stand Greg Papa’s pronunciation of “Cal” (“KALE”) during the Colorado State game over at CSN.
But like Cal’s defense, I was not prepared for what about to come my way on FSN. Some of the poorest broadcasting I’ve heard in quite some time, and Lincoln Kennedy’s bashing of Longshore in the first half was a bit odd. I can certainly understand those quotes coming in the second half, but in the first half? When Nate goes 16-25 for 172 yards and 2 TDs?
And the announcers chuckling about the fat lady singing with 8 minutes to go in the game was just a little frustrating. Just a bit.
Oh and the “Haha, the kicker is Italian, let’s try and make stereotypical and offensive jokes about Italian words and names that rhyme with Tavecchio” bit was moronic. Ya’ll should be ashamed. Poo poo to you both.
“I’m sick to my stomach.”
-Alex Mack
Well said, Alex. The loss hurts. Not for the absence of the ranking, or the fact that Cal no longer controls its destiny in the conference race. It also doesn’t challenge my belief from the beginning of the season that this team would see its share of struggles on its way to a rebuilding year. An 8-4 season would still be a successful one in my mind.
No, what hurts is that the Arizona game all but erased most of the positive momentum Cal had built in the first half of the season. What hurts is that the loss brought back haunting shades of previous losses such as to Arizona State from last year, or the debacle that was the ’06 Arizona mess.
But unlike in that game, there were no flukey calls, no acts of divine intervention from the Wildcats Gods. This time there were no built-in excuses about humidity or time zones as there were in the Maryland game. No “what-ifs” about healthy quarterbacks or “if-only-Riley-had-played” scenarios. No excuses. Cal just got beat.
And that’s what hurts the most.
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Rankings Update: Week 8
It appears the Golden Bears have developed an allergic reaction to being ranked.
For the second time this season, after just one week of breaking into the rankings, the Bears drop right back out following their 42-27 loss to Arizona on Saturday night.
The Bears received 3 points in the AP Poll to place them at the 36th mark, and are 39th in the USA Today Poll with 2 points.
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Friday, October 17, 2008
Keys to the Game: Arizona
Why do I feel like I’ve been here before? After breaking back into the polls, Cal faces a talented team coming off an upset loss to a team regarded to be inferior.
Oh yeah, Maryland…humidity…right.
I have the sense that some Cal fans are feeling a bit overconfident about Saturday’s evening game against Arizona. Granted, some of it is understandably justified considering how well Cal’s defense has played thus far this season, particularly in the last few weeks.
I, however, am scared out my wits about this game.
I touched upon this earlier in the week, but a lot of my fear resides in the fact that I’m still not completely sure what kind of team Arizona is just yet. Statistically, they’re impressive, sure. But Arizona also has the unique ability to play to the level of their opponents, for better or for worse. They will typically notch one or two impressive upsets over ranked teams at home each season, while also getting upset or losing to inferior teams, like they did with New Mexico earlier this season.
Plus, I’m still recovering from the ’06 loss in Tucson. That crap will stick with you for a while.
On paper, Arizona has a lot of the tools to walk out with a win on Saturday. There will be a couple of issues Cal will need to prioritize if they want to prevent that from happening.
Run, Lightning, Run
If Cal can successfully run the ball tomorrow against Arizona, it is very difficult for me to see them losing against Arizona, barring any costly turnovers. In their two losses this season, Arizona has given up 507 yards on the ground rushing the ball. They face a Cal offense that is currently 3rd in the conference in rushing yards per game, averaging 180.0 yards on the ground. Cal shouldn’t get too excited just yet however, as the commonality in the two rushing attacks that Zona stuggled against were power running games with both Stanford backs Toby Gerhart and Rodney Ferguson of New Mexico, topping out over 230 pounds.
Neither of Cal’s featured backs in Jahvid Best or Shane Vereen even break up the 200 lb. mark, so breaking tackles and moving piles won’t really be a big part of Cal’s rushing strategy. However, if Cal’s offensive line can control the line of scrimmage and open up enough holes for Best or Vereen to break into the second level, it might be a long day for the Arizona defense. Cal’s run blocking struggled mightily in the second half of the Arizona State, as the Sun Devils’ defense keyed in on the run as the Bears nursed a lead. They need to reestablish themselves as a unit against the Wildcats Saturday, and with Arizona’s lack of depth at the defensive tackle position, it might just the place to do it.
In addition to the necessary production on offense, running the ball will help Cal control the time of possession, and keep Arizona’s dangerous offense off the field.
Pass to Set up the Run?
It’s unlikely however, that Arizona will look to stop to run by only rushing four, so look for the Wildcats to use a lot of zone blitzes and send their athletic linebackers to stuff Cal’s running game. Anyone who watched Cal’s game against Maryland or the second half of the Arizona State game can tell you that it is very much possible to contain Cal’s explosive running game by adding a few more bodies in the box.
This puts much more of the onus on Cal’s passing game, which has been inconsistent, to say in the least thus far in 2008. More troubling is knowing that this inconsistent passing game faces off against the nation’s top pass defense. The Wildcats only allow 55.3 percent of passes to be completed, and average only 124.3 passing yards a game.
(Some important notes in regards to Cal’s passing game before we proceed: QB Nate Longshore was announced as the starter for Saturday’s game, and WR Michael Calvin is expected to miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL.)
It’s up to Nate Longshore to react quickly to where the blitzes are coming from, and take advantage of the soft spots in Arizona’s zone coverage. (Note: Rilerians just threw up in their mouths at the line “up to Longshore.”) Perhaps more importantly, if there ever were a game thus far in the season in which the receivers need to step up their game, it’s this one. If Cal receivers can get off the line quickly and find their spots in the zone, it keeps the defense honest prevents the Wildcats from consistently stacking the box. Ergo, Best and Vereen have the critical space necessary to do what they do best.
In sum, as soon as the Wildcats begin to key in on the run, that’s when Cal needs to really open it up in the air.
Contain Arizona’s Passing
Typically when I write about what Cal has to do to disrupt passing games, I usually start with winning the battle in the trenches on defense and getting pressure on the quarterback. While creating havoc at the line of scrimmage will certainly be important, in Sonny Dyke’s spread offense, Cal will have to do so without consistently sending multiple linebackers to pass rush. Arizona typically uses 4 to 5 receiver sets to spread out the defense, and flows on a quick rhythmic passing game intended to get the ball out quickly to their talented wide receivers in space or to hit them in stride. If Tuitama catches on quickly as to where the blitzes are coming from, look for huge gains on hot routes and screens.
Every aspect of Cal’s defense will be challenged on Saturday. The D-line will have to be able to create pressure on Tuitama without relying on too much help from their linebackers. Cal’s secondary will face the biggest test of their season, as they match up against arguably the best receiving corps. in the conference with Mike Thomas, Terrell Turner, and Delashaun Dean. Throw in Ron Gronkowski, an absolute freak of an athlete at TE, and Cal’s secondary and linebacking corps will have their hands full. While Syd’Quan Thompson and Darian Hagan have both had successful ’08 campaigns so far, they along with DB Chris Conte and strong safety Marcus Ezeff, will have to stay focused at all times to prevent any big plays. Expect to see our linebackers running all over the field as well, in hopes of containing Arizona’s passing game.
With Cal’s much improved run defense facing off against Arizona’s much improved running game, it may all come down to containing Arizona from making huge plays in the air.
So…do I put on my diapers now or what?
Yeah, yeah, I’ll admit. I’m scared. Arizona matches up well on paper, they have the element of surprise, and will be motivated playing at home (where they spot a six game winning streak). Cal comes off a bye with a few critical injuries, and questions regarding their passing game.
However, If pushed, I would say that I think this is a winnable game for Cal. Cal 28 Arizona 24.
Bring on the Huggies and the Rolaids.
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Thursday, October 16, 2008
A Few Pre-Arizona Notes
A few notes as we approach the final days before Cal’s game against Arizona.
A quick injury update from Jonathan Okanes:
So Bears fans, brace yourselves. We’ve got bad news and good news.
The good news is that all signs are looking like Jahvid Best will be ready to go on Saturday. While it appears somewhat unlikely that Best will return kickoffs this game, he should be healthy enough to play and provide the lightning and lightning punch the Bears will need to run the ball against the Wildcats.
So now for the bad news. Looks like we won’t have WR Michael Calvin or kicker David Seawright for the trip on Saturday.
Reports indicate that Calvin, who had already been battling a sprained toe, blew out his knee running a route and MRI test results will be available later today, but it’s not looking good.
Seawright pulled his groin during practice on Tuesday and remains doubtful for Saturday. Walkon kicker Giorgio Tavecchio and last year’s starter Jordan Kay have split reps on field goals, and both will probably make the trip for Saturday.
Take your pick as to which is worse.
If the game on Saturday ends up being a close one, not having a reliable kicker could be huge. Red Zone efficiency will be a big factor for the Bears.
On the other hand, Michael Calvin, who has been slowed by injury all season, had been counted on as being one of the best receiving weapons for the Bears, so the idea that he might be done for the season is certainly disheartening news for a team whose receiving corp. has enough questions as it is. The current rotation of starters will most likely remain: LaReylle Cunningham, Sean Young, Nyan Boateng, with Verran Tucker, Jeremy Ross, and hopefully Marvin Jones getting some reps as well.
Oh, and Tyson Alualu was also seen on a crutch on Wednesday, but Coach Tedford explained that it was due to a leg infection, and Alualu should be ready to go on Saturday. Hopefully Alualu, Cal’s most consistent defensive lineman this year, will have full strength and capacity restored to his leg by then.
Other Notes
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Wednesday, October 15, 2008
The Pac-10 Needs Cal to Win on Saturday
I've been digging a lot of the work Robert Calonge has been doing at the Cal Bears Examiner.
I thought it was about time I gave it some BearswithFangs loving, so I have guest post up there ya'll can check out examining the importance of Cal's performance this season to the strength of the Pac-10. Take a look and leave comment with your thoughts.
You can check it out here.
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Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Just How Good is Arizona?
Looking at Arizona going into last Saturday’s game against Stanford, many Cal fans found themselves asking, “Just how good are these guys?’
Statistically, these Wildcats were impressive. Prior to their game against Stanford, they had led the conference in Offensive Pts/Game at 43.6, were 3rd in Total Offense (428.6 yards per game) and rushing (170.4 yards per game).
Defensively, the Wildcats appeared to be even more impressive. Arizona had been 2nd in the nation in total defense, allowing only 226.2 yards per game, and were second in the conference in scoring defense (15.2 PPG). The secondary, led the conference in passing yards allowed (118.8 yards per game) and were third in rushing defense, only giving up 107.4 yards per game.
All of the statistics contributed to a 4-1 record and the best start for Arizona during the Mike Stoops era. Going into last weekend, the Wildcats stood atop the Pac-10 conference, tied with Cal with a 2-0 conference record.
As impressive as the stats were, a closer look revealed just how incredibly misleading they were. It was a classic case of Arizona-State-2007-itis. Also better known as “soft schedule leads to inflated record” syndrome. Arizona’s wins had come over a Idaho (1-6), Toledo (2-4), UCLA (2-4), and Washington (0-5); opponents with a combined 5-19 record.
Any Arizona fan would be quick to argue, “Well that’s what good teams do: beat teams they’re supposed to beat…except for New Mexico.” Understandable. Even the best teams falter every once and a while. And the Wildcats did beat those team, and in decisive fashion.
But then Saturday happened.
Cal fans were left to speculate as to what exactly took place during Arizona’s untelevised 24-23 defeat to Stanford. Upon a closer look at the box score, and some further analysis, a few things became clear:
Arizona may not be so good against the run.
Stanford decided to run the ball down Arizona’s throat, and the Wildcats had nothing to say about it. Stanford rushed for 286 yards against Zona. 286 yards? Wait, two hundred and what? Wasn’t this the 3rd best run defense in the conference? I plugged on with my research. Okay, 64 yards to the Vandals…74 yards to Toledo…wait, 221 yards to New Mexico? What the heck is going on here? My mind was swirling like Tom Hanks in the Da Vinci Code.
It became obvious that Arizona’s previously impressive statistics against the run had been greatly deflated by the lack of a running game they had seen in those wins including facing the two worst rushing attacks in the conference (besides WSU) in UCLA and Washington sans leading rusher Jake Locker.
In a way, Stanford’s running success against Arizona is looking more and more like a revelation than an aberration.
Arizona may not be so good with the run
Arizona went into their game against a mostly mediocre Stanford run defense that had previously been 5th in the conference against the run, allowing 120.5 yards on the ground. On Saturday though, Arizona only managed 77 yards. Way out of character for a running offense that had averaged over 170 a game prior to that. Or was it? Again, have to take a look at the New Mexico game…yep, just as I thought, Arizona only managed 67 yards on the ground there.
Looking at the previous conference run defenses they had faced, we see that UCLA and Washington were both on the bottom of the conference totem pole in rushing yards allowed with the Bruins and Huskies giving up on average, 171.3 and 233.4 yards on the ground.
Huh…so all this time I had just assumed that Arizona, one of the worst rushing teams in the conference last year, had suddenly just gotten really really good. While Arizona may have improved, I’m thinking it’s more that the teams they’ve faced have just been really really bad at defending the run.
So in the End…
…I don’t know THAT much more about Arizona. On one hand, I’m feeling a bit more confident going into our Saturday game, knowing that most of Zona’s success is probably a lot of smoke and mirrors created by their subpar competition.
On the other hand, there’s still something about going to Tuscon that scares me. Perhaps it's the lingering fear that Arizona may be a genuine conference threat this year with their improved spread offense, and defensive prowess. Or maybe it’s the flashes of Desean Jackson’s large toe, goal deficiencies, the Hawk’s ability to stand upright for just one more yard, or Nate Longshore pick six…needless to say I’m scurred.
However, the most perplexing part of this whole discussion may be the appearance of a new and more annoying question: “Just how good is Stanford?”
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Monday, October 13, 2008
Bears Injury Update (10/13)
The Bears come rested off their bye week as they prepare for their game at Arizona on Saturday. Here’s a quick injury update for our Bears’ boo boos.
The biggest question is whether Jahvid Best will be ready to go for Saturday, coming off his dislocated elbow injury. The news is looking more and more optimistic, although nothing is set in stone. Best is about where he should be in his rehab, as he was able to lift weights on Saturday and catch a few passes in non-contact drills on Sunday. Best even fell to the turf a few times, even on his injured elbow, and didn’t seem too phased by the injury.
"I was a little worried at first, but falling didn't hurt, so that will help with the mental aspect," Best said.
The biggest part of coming back will probably be the mental rehabilitation for Best, as he will have to get back used to play his usual explosive self, without worry of reinjuring his elbow. Of course, if there is a chance that Best won’t be 100%, Coach Jeff Tedford has maintained he won’t risking playing Best.
Cal fans who saw Shane Vereen in action against ASU won’t have much to worry about after seeing Vereen’s performance, although it would be nice to be able to have both back for what will be a big game against the Wildcats.
Also, Nate Longshore is again injured, but not in the way many Cal fans would initially suspect.
Longshore slipped a disk in his back after lifting weights and was held out of practice on Sunday, although he should be good to go for Tuesday’s practice. Although both Tedford and Longshore stated that Nate could have played, Tedford didn’t see too much reason to reaggravate the injury for Sunday’s non-contact drills, and felt it was better to just “give it another day to settle down.”
Longshore had a similar injury during his record setting 2006 sophomore campaign, and prior to opening the season against Tennessee in 2007.
Rulon Davis continues to sit out with his undisclosed injury (a broken foot from what I gather). Davis is predicted to be healed by mid-November, but with rehab and conditioning, it’s not a stretch to assume that Davis is pretty much done for the season, at least as a starter. We may be able to see him back for Stanford or Washington, but with the way Cameron Jordan and Tyson Alualu, Cal will most likely be in no rush to hurry Davis back and risk further injury. A sad prognosis for the oft-injured senior.
Wide receiver Marvin Jones is back to practicing after going down with knee injury during Cal’s previous bye week, and signs look good that Jones could take the field on Saturday. I haven’t hear anything just yet that would indicate otherwise, but I’ll keep you all posted if I do.
Michael Calvin continues to try and heal his sprained toe that has hampered him for most of the season. Cal patiently waits for the toe to fully heal so they can get the level of production they had hoped for from Calvin, who still can ultimately prove to be the Bears’ best receiver this season. Tedford insists that Calvin will “absolutely” still be a big part of the offense’s game plan as Calvin plays through his injury.
Finally, no new word on Left Tackle Mike Tepper. No one is talking too much about it, but it’s looking more and more like Tepper, like Davis, may be done for the season. Even if Tepper were to return, it’d be a bit of a quandary as to where to fit him back in to the line. I can’t imagine that he would replace Mitchell Schwartz on the left side of the line considering how the well Schwartz has performed there. No word also as to whether Tepper would apply for a medical redshirt, and a 6th year of eligibility.
Alright, keep it locked in for more updates on the team, and a few sprinkles of actual analysis as we rev back up for Saturday’s game.
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Sunday, October 12, 2008
Rankings Update: Week 7
The rankings are out, and despite being in a bye week, Cal has popped back into the AP Polls and have moved up a few notches in the USA Today Poll.
Cal barely enters the AP Poll ranked 25th, and moves up to 22nd in the USA Today Poll. Cal benefited from Auburn's loss to Arkansas, as well as previously unbeaten Vanderbilt's loss to Miss. St.
Cal is still the only other Pac-10 team in the Top 25, with the other obviously being USC who leapfrogged their way up to 4th with #1 Oklahoma, #2 Missouri, #3 LSU all going down yesterday.
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Thursday, October 9, 2008
Weekend Picks: 10/11
Another Bye Week? Another chance for Cal fans to get away and enjoy things other than Cal football. I’ll use the weekend as an opportunity to partake in a friendly game of flag football with some friends. To avoid the chance of any paparazzi showing up, I can’t disclose the exact location of where I’ll be playing. But let’s just say I’ll be stiff-arming men, women, and yes…even midgets, come Saturday morning in the South Bay area.
USC vs. Arizona State (12:30)
As I mentioned earlier in the week, dark times lie ahead for Arizona State. They could be in the middle of a five to six game losing streak and will have to dig deep to be bowl eligible.
It’s certainly not a position ASU had expected to be in after having entered the season as the media favorite to seriously challenge the Trojans for the conference title.
USC is coming off a romp over Oregon, another Pac-10 “elite.” I predicted earlier in the fall that USC would suffer at least one loss in the Pac-10. It’s a bit of an annual ritual for the Trojans. They lose a conference game to an inferior team, get angry, and go on a Pac-9 dwarf bitch-smacking spree. Oregon was first, and Arizona State looks to follow.
And without Rudy Carpenter? That 3 TD spread just got even larger.
USC 49 ASU 13
Arizona vs. Stanford (2:00)
This is an important one for both teams. A win for either will go a long way in shoring up a bowl bid. The losing one could see a tricky road ahead for bowl eligibility.
Arizona is sporting its best opening record in years, and features the top scoring offense in the conference and is 2nd in scoring defense, and is among the top teams in the conference nearly every other statistical category offensively and defensively. The problem? They haven’t really played anybody with a pulse. So it’s hard to gauge where they’re at.
Stanford, on the other hand has seen its decent share of competition, and has understandably faltered. While they finally have a running game for the first time in years, their passing game has sputtered.
The Wildcats will contain the run enough to force bad decisions from Tavita Pritchard in a slug fest.
Oh and Bears fans will be tuned in to get a better sense of what Cal will be up against in the Wildcats for the following Saturday.
Arizona 35 Stanford 20
Washington State vs. Oregon State (3:30)
Poor, poor Wazzu. They just might be one of the worst BCS conference teams in the country. And that my friend, is no easy task. I’m not going to go into all the reasons why head coach Paul Wulff has a permanent IV of Pepto Bismol pumping into gut, but it’s a sad, sad situation.
Oregon State has this unusual habit of only beginning to show up for games beginning in October, and my guess that they’ll continue to pick up steam and finish their season strong, yet again. While their ulcer-inducing collapse to Utah last week still stings, a game against the Cougs is just what the doctor ordered to get them back into shape.
Sorry WSU, I guess you’ll have to wait your turn to clobber it out with the Huskies for 9th place in the conference.
OSU 31 Washington State 14
Oregon vs. UCLA (7:15)
Oregon has this amazing way of just laying on bad teams. And UCLA is kind of a bad team. They’re getting better on offense, and are still solid defensively, but still aren’t too much of a threat.
UCLA also has to travel for their first conference away game, and have to start at the always raucous Autzen Stadium. Not a good place to start for new QB Kevin Craft.
The biggest question is how the Ducks will respond after being spanked by USC. I think they’ll settle back into a groove just fine and proceed to run all over the Bruins. Over 200+ yards on the ground and another conference win for Oregon.
Oregon 38 UCLA 17