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So I've had a chance to digest the news that Sonny Dykes will be the new head coach for our sturdy Golden Bears.
Like I said before, I can't say that I began doing backflips upon hearing the news, but this was far from the worst possible hire. Again, I'm cautiously optimistic here. There's a whole lot to like, and there's plenty of reason to think this could end up being a home-run hire. And honestly, though I'm not fully fired up yet, I have a hard time seeing this turning out as terribly as it might have been had we gone with some other potential candidates.
Here are some of my thoughts as I waver between optimism and concern.
(1) Say Hello to the #1 Offense in the Country
And thank goodness. Of all the units on this year's team, it was clear that the offense was the one in most need of an overhaul and you couldn't have asked for a better set of offensive minds to do that than Sonny Dykes and offensive coordinator Tony Franklin.
What they've done at at Louisiana Tech is nothing short of astonishing. The Bulldogs were the top scoring offense in all of FBS football last season, averaging 51.5 points per game. They averaged 577.9 yards per game, in a ridiculously balanced offensive attack: 227.17 ypg on the ground and 350.8 ypg through the air. Their uptempo offense averages 88.6 plays per game which is second in the country. To provide some context, Oregon (5th nationally) averages 84.2 ppg, while the Bears averaged 71.5 plays per game (74th nationally). They scored TDs on 75% of their trips in the red zone. Contrast that to the Bears' dismal 47.37% red zone TD efficiency last season.
Just staggering numbers all around. And what does this mean? The Bears become immediately more competitive in each game. No deficit seems insurmountable. Hell, the Bulldogs were down 27-0 against Texas A&M last season before staging a near miraculous comeback in a 57-59 loss.
Does this mean this will all translate to offensive success in Berkeley? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe not immediately. But I'm dying to find out what he'll do with some of the offensive playmakers we have currently. With this receiving corps, Bigelow and Lasco, and a potential star QB in either Zach Kline or Austin Hinder, this could be an explosive offense. And at the very worst, at least it'll be fun to watch.
I'm always hesitant with coaches who supposedly are great leaders but don't have the record to back it up. It's why I knew coaches like Derek Dooley and Gene Chizik were questionable hires and why coaches like Urban Meyer, and Brian Kelly are bound to do big things: they win wherever they go.
Dykes' young track record speaks for itself so far: Before Dykes joined Arizona as offensive coordinator in 2005, the Wildcats were ranked 115th nationally in total offense and 105th in scoring offense. By 2008, Arizona was ranked 16th in scoring and 33rd in total offense. Arizona's offense wasn't the same after Dykes left until Rich Rod finally took over this past year.
Then you look at what Dykes has done at Louisiana Tech as head coach. After a mediocre 5-7 start in his first year, the Bulldogs improved to 8-5 the following season including a close bowl loss to #18th ranked TCU. This past year, LT was a potential BCS buster before two close losses to Utah State (in overtime) and SJSU left them at 9-3 on the season.
Those numbers might not be mighty impressive in the SEC, but when you consider the sheer lack of resources at Louisiana Tech, it's hard not to be impressed. This was a program who hadn't enjoyed that type of success in nearly 20 years.
You have to think that there's a huge opportunity here with Cal providing seemingly infinite more resources than what Dykes had in Louisiana. It's hard not to envision a bright future.
(3) Recruiting Prowess
This is more hearsay than anything, but Dykes is reported to be a very solid recruiter. Not necessarily all-star, but he's a socially likeable guy, and is said to be very good at closing the deal with recruits when it counts.
His time in Arizona has given him some experience recruiting California, but his experience also gives him some key inroads to Texas and the Southeast.
Again, Dykes didn't have nearly the level of firepower he now has at Cal to recruit. If he can bring on some top notch assistants, I'm interested to see how he closes with recruits.
(4) Aggressive Offense
One of the biggest knocks on Tedford was his conservative approach in each game. Not really so with Sonny Dykes. Dykes' team had a whopping 29 4th down attempts last year, and he converted on nearly 69% of them, which was the 16th best in the country.
This is a guy who's confident in what his offense can do, and is willing to roll the dice to move the chains.
(1)Defense
For as prolific as Sonny Dykes' offense has been, his defense has been that terrible. Just...awful. We're talking one of the worst in the country. Check these numbers out:
Scoring Defense: 38.5 ppg (119th in the country)
Total Defense: 526.1 yards per game (last!)
Opponent 3rd Down Conversions: 46.32 (108th)
Opponent Red Zone Conversions: 88.24 (109th)
There's no other way to spin this one guys. LT's defense was atrocious last year. Hell, they gave up 55 points to Texas State. I know it was a road game and all, but still...
So here's the bright side with this: Dykes is fully aware of the need to get it right on that side of the ball, and he understands the pressing need to get an all-star defensive coordinator to instill some confidence that we're not going to be regularly engaging in 63-57 shootouts with FCS schools.
Word has it that Dykes plans on bringing in New Mexico State's DeWayne Walker. That sounded great 4 years ago, but opinions of Walker have ranged since NMSU has struggled at 10-40 with him as their head coach. Fortunately we're not talking about Walker as a head coach here.
Walker was more than solid as UCLA's defensive coordinator from 2006-2008, and you have to wonder how much better those UCLA units would have been statistically had they had some competent offenses. For now, I will say that I'd be happy with the Walker, and he seems to be a more than suitable candidate to manage that side of the ball with Dykes and Franklin focusing solely on the offense. Walker's reportedly been a solid recruiter and his SoCal recruiting connections should pay some immediate dividends as well.
And honestly, there's less pressure here simply because the defense was in far better shape than the offense by the end of the season. I actually thought Cal's defense played decently with all things considered, but I'm intrigued to see what Walker can do to instill some much needed toughness back into the trenches and discipline in a young, but talented secondary.
(2) Wins Against Top 25 Teams
That is, there are none. In Dykes' three years as a head coach, he doesn't have a signature win over a Top 25 team under his belt. You'd like to see a coach come in who has a record of having taken down a few big dogs.
With all that said, in Dykes' defense, Louisiana Tech isn't exactly in a position to get many opportunities against Top 25 competition being in the WAC and all. It is particularly worth noting that the Bulldogs have actually shown up pretty well against Top 25 teams: a 24-31 loss to TCU, a 57-59 loss to Texas A&M, and a 43-52 loss to San Jose State.
You can't say that his teams don't make it a game. And the more you think about it, you have to think it's a credit to Dykes that he's been able to get his teams to be so competitive against more talented teams.
(3) Sloppy Undiscipline? Undisciplined Sloppiness?
I was truly hoping that whoever Cal's next head coach was would be a no-nonsense authority figure who would hold his team accountable for mental mistakes and shooting the team in the foot.
Dykes doesn't strike me as having that type of demeanor, but it's not his demeanor that worries me. It's the fact that Louisiana Tech was 121st in the nation in penalty yardage this past season, and 118th in penalties. That's just marginally (and a slim margin at that) better than Cal's horrendous year.
This knock is the one that bugs me a bit simply because I do believe it's a symptom of coaching, and of the team's mindset. It's one of the few categories that isn't easily biased and skewed because of a team's opposition, or what conference they play in. Undisicplined football is undisciplined football. I can't tell you what was the issue with LT last year, but I do hope that Dykes is able to instill a culture of smart, disciplined football in Berkeley, unlike that which is existed in Louisiana.
On the flip side, Dykes' team was very good about not turning the ball over as well, which is usually a sign of smart, disciplined ball. In fact, the Bulldogs turned the ball over just 13 times all year last season, which was tied for 10th in the nation.
New, exciting offense is fun and all, but the bottom line question on the minds of many Cal fans is, "Can Dykes lead us to the Rose Bowl?"
I'm not going to lie: I don't immediately see it. I'm not saying it won't happen by any means, but I don't instantly think Dykes = Rose Bowl.
But Dykes' track record has been impressive so far. Given what he's been handed, you can't argue that the guy has not made the most of every opportunity. And you can clearly tell he looks at coaching the Bears as a dream job of sorts, and is going to hit the ground running at full speed. This is not a guy who's going to take a "wait and see approach here." He plans on giving it his all, and that in itself is pretty darned exciting.
You're going to see the phrase, "cautiously optimistic" thrown out a lot. And it's the best choice of words here. A lot of people who know better have been very high on Dykes, so I'm feeling pretty good that we got a solid hire. But we all know that the bottom line will be whether he can lead the Golden Bears to the promised land in Pasadena. And if Dykes doesn't know that yet, he will very soon.
Welcome to Bear Territory Coach Dykes. We're happy to have you.
4 comments:
Re: penalties... I was looking for a stat breakdown of how many of those were offensive vs. defensive penalties and how that ratio compares to other teams. Maybe constant PI's and other defensive penalties are one of the reasons the defense was so bad. Maybe the offense was relatively penalty-free (for a team that runs so many plays). I know penalties have a lot to do with overall team culture (which falls in the HC's lap) but I'd still like to see those numbers.
In all fairness, SD was asked about his Defense at the press conference that introduced his as the new HC. He talked about how in the previous year at LT his team was #1 in Defense. He also explained that in the previous year he had more seniors and talent on the D side of the ball and less experience on the O side of the ball. Then the following year the O and D flipped sides in experience. Bottom line he used and played what cards where dealt to him. Given that he was in WAC and also LT doesn't exactly recruit *4-*5 star players, he seemed to do very well with what he had.
Anon 1) It would be interesting to see. I could try and look at the play-by-play for each game and break it down, but I honestly don't know if it's worth the effort. Perhaps it might keep me busy in the off season, but I still think penalties are penalties.
Anon 2) I heard Dykes' comments on this, and was impressed with his honest analysis and take on how to run the team. I wonder what his D-coordinator will do with next year's defense. We've got a whole lot of talent returning on that side of the ball.
Great post! Hopefully looking for as you said a fun team to watch in 2013! Go bears!!!
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