Keys to the Game: Nevada

Here we go. It's the very first "Keys to the Game" feature of the 2012 season. Just as a heads up, I'll be changing the format a bit on these posts this year, as I've come to find that trying to generate three actual keys to the game each week isn't always insightful and can get repetitive. Instead, I'll be doing my regular preview of the opposing team while offering a few thoughts as to what needs to be done to pull off the win. Nothing radically different.

The Bears kick off their much anticipated season against the now Mountain West Conference's Nevada Wolfpack. Some Cal fans might unfortunately still remember the Bears' letdown of a performance against Nevada in Reno back in 2010.

Cal's hoping for different things this time around against a young Nevada squad that is coming off a rebuilding 7-6 year. In facing Chris Ault's famous pistol offense, the Bears will have to get past opening day jitters quickly and play sound, disciplined football if they plan on keeping a historic day from turning into a colossal nightmare.

Defending the Pistol

The big story here for the Bears is going to be their defense of Nevada's pistol offense. In fact, that's all I'm going to really focus on, as I'm absolutely convinced that if the Bears can effectively defend Nevada's pistol offense, they win this game going away.

Before jumping into defending the pistol, you have actually understand what makes the pistol different from your typical zone read and why it can be so tricky to defend. Chris Brown at Dr. Saturday has a nice writeup on the pistol look here. In it, he says,

"When the offense is rolling (which it is most of the time these days), the pistol gives a team the best of both worlds: It has at its disposal all the Urban Meyer/Rich Rodriguez spread offense stuff, like the zone read and other gadgets, as well as the advantages of a "traditional" I-formation or pro-style single-back attack. Among these are that the runningback, aligning as he does behind the quarterback, tips no hand to the defense on the direction of the play, and the offense can get both good downhill running and play-action off those looks."

Oh we know, Chris Brown. We know.

There are a number of different approaches in defending the pistol, and as I've learned, painfully might I add, the Bears have opted with the "scrape exchange" in the past. Brown's statement in the article might be the most revealing in explaining why:

"The reason the veer works so well, including when compared to the zone read, is that with the veer guarantees two things the zone read can't: Double-team blocks at the point of attack, and the ability to make the man the QB reads wrong, every time. (With the zone read you're just trying to control a backside pursuit defender. If he "stays home" for the quarterback, forcing a handoff, there is no guarantee the line will get double teams to the other side or that the back will find a hole.)"

In other words, the Bears seem screwed either way. So they opt for the scrape exchange in which the guy being read (either DE or OLB) crashes automatically. The focus is no longer on read and react, but rather on disruption. The read responsibility then shifts to the inside linebackers who, at a further distance and better angle, have a better view of the QB and thus a split second more to make the right read.

Given the Bears' strength at defensive line and speed off the edge, I can certainly understand the plan of attack. This strategy depends heavily on the play of the middle linebackers however. And when the Bears last faced Nevada, they were without Mike Mohammed. Replacement Robert Mullins got tricked and abused constantly throughout the game which led to the Wolfpack rolling up like, a thousand yards on the ground.

So who do the Bears have in line to watch and read Cody Fajardo? Robert Mullins.

Uh-oh.

But fear not Cal fans. I'd like to think the Bears' inside backers are in much better position this time around to defend the pistol. Mullins is a 5th year senior who now has experience in defending the zone read, and you can bet he's spent the offseason studying tape and versing himself with his reads.

Now the Bears could just as easily scrap the whole scrape exchange approach and opt instead to put the read responsibility back on their outside backers. I feel like they'll fluctuate between the two depending on the the defensive line's success getting into the backfield and disrupting Nevada's attempts to double team rushers.

Also, it is worth noting that given the Wolfpack's question marks at wide receiver, the Bears could also afford to assign safety Josh Hill the responsibilities of spying Fajardo. The Bears went with this route when facing Oregon, though the Ducks caught onto it in 2011, but that's a different story.

The onus also isn't completely on the front seven however, as the Bears are likely to use a Cover 2, which would put a lot of responsibility on the Bears' corners to defend the edges in run support. I like our chances here, especially with Marc Anthony manning one side. For all the knocks against his coverage abilities, he is one of the better tackling DBs the Bears have had in a while.

That's a lot to take in. There's a lot of responsibility to be shared. If the defensive line can't penetrate at the point of attack, the Bears are going to be at the mercy of what Nevada's offense dictates. If the linebackers can't properly diagnose plays and equally keep Fajardo contained, it will be 2010 all over again. If Cal's secondary can't be disciplined tacklers in the open field or play physically enough with Nevada's wideouts, it won't matter what the front seven does as Nevada will then really be able to open up the playbook with play action

Again, the defense will determine the outcome of the game. That's not to say Cal's offense and special teams are off the hook, but they'll have to more or less execute and play mistake free football. Nevada's defense is stout, but they can be had, and nothing about their special teams scares me.

But I suppose that's the big story of the game. In an offseason focusing on all renovations in the surroundings, it really will boil down to what Tedford said as taking care of business on the field.

Execution boys, and this game and perhaps season is yours.

Prediction:

Cal 38
Nevada 24