Projecting the 2011 Draft

The NFL will hold its annual draft on Thursday, and the Golden Bears are looking to continue its rich tradition of sending some very good players to the draft in hopes of making their imprint at the next level.

For the past several years, the Bears have had some pleasant surprises (Alex Mack and Tyson Alualu slipping into the first round) and some draft disappointments (Aaron Rodgers and Desean Jackson’s slides).

This year’s draft appears to be fairly clear with Cameron Jordan, and a bit more uncertain everywhere else. Let’s take a look and see where this blogger thinks these Bears will end up in the draft.

Cameron Jordan

Very few players have done as well in the past year to improve their draft stock as much as Cameron Jordan. Jordan entered his senior season as a player who could slip into the first round depending on his level of play, and is now a possible Top 15 selection.


Jordan’s progress and performance in his senior year and post-season draft process has been remarkable. He put up solid numbers in his senior season (62 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles), showing steady improvement in nearly every statistical category since his freshman year with the Bears. He also turned heads at the Senior Bowl, had impressive workouts at both the combine and Cal’s pro day, while saying all the right things in his interviews with the media and general managers in public and private interviews.



What the pundits are saying:
Jordan appears to be solidly entrenched as a first round draft pick (he’ll be one of the 25 rookies attending the draft on Thursday), but it’s been a bit difficult to project exactly where in that round he’ll go. Some have him pegged as high as somewhere in the Top 15, though few if any have him slipping out of the first round.

My Projection
Jordan seemingly has everything you want in a player to be a stalwart in your defensive line for years to come. Smart, personable, athletic, great natural frame, and is well-equipped with skills from years playing multiple positions in different schemes over his four year playing career with the Bears.

The only two things keeping Jordan from being a Top 10 pick? First, Jordan happens to be stuck in the middle of one of the best defensive end classes in recent history, with a few teams in high need of a pass rusher having a luxury of options. Jordan projects more as a “versus the run” type of defensive end, though he is still incredibly versatile. Secondly, true 5 technique players like Jordan usually don’t go in the first half of the draft.

Still, Jordan is doing everything you possibly can to upset that trend. I’d be surprised if Jordan falls into the bottom third of the first round, as I see him as a natural fit with either the Patriots at #17 or San Diego at #18.

Projection: Mid-First Round

Shane Vereen

Like Justin Forsett, Shane Vereen had a bit more of a quiet, yet productive career than their predecessors (Marshawn Lynch and Jahvid Best respectively), and that will likely mean that both will probably be drafted a bit lower than their value would project.

However, I highly doubt Vereen falls as much as Justin Forsett did, who barely escaped going undrafted after being picked by the Seahawks in the seventh round. And that seems to be working out pretty well for Forsett.

Vereen’s productive career at Cal includes just one full season as the starter, yet there’s enough footage on Vereen for scouts to know what they’re getting in Vereen: a solid, versatile back who will be able to contribute in the run and passing game, as well as with special teams.

Vereen added 1,167 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground to bring his collegiate career total to 2,834 yards and 29 scores. He also has 674 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns through the air. Productive. Flat out productive.

Shane Vereen certainly didn’t hurt his stock at the combine. Although running in the 4.4 range would have certainly helped his case, Vereen ran an admirable 4.5 forty, and put up an impressive 31 reps on the bench press, which was the best of any runningback (not counting FBs). Impressive.

What the pundits are saying
While most scouts know that Vereen will be able to contribute to whichever team he’s drafted, many have questions as to whether he’ll be able to be an every down back. Vereen doesn’t have the bulk to be a bruiser, but isn’t in the same range as Jahvid Best or Chris Johnson in terms of speed to be an easy first round pick.

Most projections have Vereen going anywhere from the third round to the fifth round.

My projection
Although some have stated that Vereen could slip into the second round, I don’t think there are too many teams in dire need of a back at this point, nor are there any backs outside of Mark Ingram who are deemed as being first round material. I don’t think too many teams will draft a runningback in the first two rounds unless they’re confident he can be an everydown back.

I think the best case scenario for Vereen to get drafted in the third round, though I do think it’s more likely he gets bumped down to the fourth round, or possibly even the fifth.

I believe Vereen will flourish most with a team who is looking for 1-2 runningback punch, similar to Jamal Charles/Thomas Jones at Kansas City. Many have painted Vereen as a third down back, but I think he’s too versatile and talented to be limited to those situations. I have questions as to whether he can a lead back, but I do think there are a couple of teams out there looking for a solid second option who can play right away.

Prediction: Top of the 4th round

Mike Mohamed

Mike Mohamed is a bit of an interesting and difficult player to project the draft status for because he’s had an interesting career at Cal. Technically only a two-year starter for the Bears, he’s made a case for being the Bears’ best overall linebacker for the past several years.

He has played nearly every linebacker position for the Bears, while seeing his role change a bit with both the scheme and coordinator changes for Cal. That hasn’t stopped him from being productive however, even while played banged up his senior year.

When I think of Mohamed, I think of a smart, instinctive and technically sound player. He isn’t the most athletically gifted, or physically imposing linebackers, but he’s been a defensive stalwart for the Bears the past few seasons while find ways to make the occasional big play.

My Projection
I can see Mohamed getting drafted anywhere from the fifth to the seventh round. While there is also a slight chance that Mohamed falls out of the draft altogether, I do think a look at Mohammed’s footage will reveal that Mohammed has been around the ball far too often in his career for a team not to pick him up somewhere in the draft.

Prediction: Late 6th Round