Looking Back at EA's NCAA 09 Predictions

Man. Cal football news is pretty barren these days. Aside from some speculation as to where Devon Kennard might end up (word is that he’s locked in for USC), or some off references to the photo of the Stanford tree engaged in a ménage-a-trois with some cheerleaders, there really isn’t much.

So it wasn’t too odd then that I found myself playing through half a season of NCAA 08 (yeah, the Jared Zabransky version) on Sunday, and remembered the writeup I did last year about the 09 version. I decided it might be worthwhile to take a trip down memory lane and revisit some of the predictions made about our team based on what EA’s version of our California Golden Bears in NCAA 09.

You can read that post here.

On Offense

“Our Offensive Line is dominant. I have only been sacked a handful of times, which is a testament to the quality of the line, considering my current dynasty squad in NCAA 08 makes me look like Jimmy Clausen back there.”

This is what I get for playing the game with injuries turned off. (For the record, I had way too many instances where my starting quarterback or Marshawn Lynch went down with injury in the opener against Sacramento State for me to keep “Injuries” on in the game.) Had our offensive line been fully healthy this year, I have no doubt that this unit would again have been considered one of the premier lines in the country as it had been in previous years.

But losing your starting offensive line for most of the season with the exception of Alex Mack and RT Mitchell Schwartz who had to make the transition to LT, and playing with 2nd and 3rd string linemen for part of the season makes it difficult to establish any real consistency. For what it’s worth, those backups played pretty darn well in the backend of the season.

“James Montgomery is your starter!”
Again, EA must not have gotten the memo.

“Jahvid Best is an absolute freak in the game…Cal will probably using a more balanced rushing attack in terms of splitting carries, but if Best is 100% like Tedford is saying he is, expect him to have a big year…”

3rd in the country in rushing yards at 1,580, 8.14 YPC, 15 TDs, and 09 preseason Heisman Hype?

Yeah I think he was a freak on the field as well.

And I was right on with Tedford approaching a more balanced distribution of carries this year. Jahvid rushed 194 times to Shane Vereens 142. Tracy Slocum got 22 as well. Compare this to the 2007 season when Tedford uncharacteristically put much more of the load on Forsett who had a record breaking 305 carries with the next closest being the now-departed James Montgomery’s 36 rushes and Best’s 2007 number of 28.

“Nate, is a star “impact” player in the game, and his accuracy shows it. He was spot on in most of his throws, and EA even boosted up his speed rating for good measure…What does this mean for our QB battle? Absolutely nothing…”

EA’s preference of Nate Longshore as the starting QB apparently didn’t mean squat for Coach Tedford who shuffled back and forth between his QBs all year.

As for Nate, his once vaunted accuracy faltered during the season, although Nate did throw up decent numbers as a whole when looking at his season. And I did notice increased mobility on some of his roll outs, so I guess Longshore was feeling inspired by his videogame self.

"I wonder what hair color EA gave me."

“Generally speaking, reception yardage came mainly from my tight ends and half backs…Very rarely was I able to hit a WR deep, and most of their catches came on wide receiver screens and 15-20 yard slant and curl patterns. This seems to be pretty consistent with what I would expect at the beginning of the year as we break in our new receivers: Take advantage of their size and blocking skills on the screens, and build their confidence with intermediate routes.”

Man. Did EA knock it down or what? It’s not too difficult when one considers we were breaking in a brand new receiving corps. Any real success in the air would have been difficult to predict. Hell, one of Cal’s top receivers was playing at a junior college last year.

But true to the game, Cal had no real vertical passing game, save for a few trick plays, and no receiver broke through for more than 439 yards (Boateng). Compare that to Lavelle Hawkins’ 858 yards in 2007, and Desean Jackson’s 1060 yards in 2006.

The one thing that EA got wrong however was how poorly Cal executed the screen passes this year. While the HB screens had an inconsistent level of success, the wide receiver screen plays were widely inefficient. Again strange, considering how terrific our receivers were at blocking this year.


“…Again, expect our tight ends and half backs to be pretty involved in the passing game, according to EA.”

Combined, our tight ends and backs were responsible for 35% (855 of 2467) of the total receiving yards in 08. Cameron Morrah, led the team in receptions, and it wasn’t until later in the season that Nyan Boateng and Verran Tucker surpassed Morrah in receiving yards.

Expect Cal’s receivers to be much more productive in 09. Bank on it.

On Defense

As a whole, EA really underestimated how well Cal’s defense would play this year. Not that you can blame them really. In 2007, Cal’s defense was ranked 58th in scoring and total defense, 85th in sacks, 90th in interceptions, 96th in tackles for loss, and 83rd in passes defended. Add to that was the fact that the Bears were looking to implement a brand new 3-4 defense.

“…Our defense is very…how should I say this…Bob Gregory-ish. That is, we give up a lot of yards, and expect opposing teams to score consistently in the mid 20 range. Why? We usually force a decent amount of turnovers, and step it up a bit more in the red zone, forcing just as many field goals as we do touchdowns…”

Goes to show you what type of rep Gregory had going into the 08 season. While Cal did indeed follow suit in a number of those characteristics, Cal got REALLY good at fulfilling them.

The Bears gave up 315.2 YPG, but this time that number was good for 27th in the nation. The Bears were also 4th in the nation in turnovers forced, was 2nd in the nation in red zone defense, and held opposing offenses to 19.9 PPG (23rd in the nation).
“…Our linebacking corp is rock solid.”

This really doesn’t require further exposition, but if you do want some, The Bear Will Not Quit has an excellent breakdown of this year’s linebacking corps.
“…Secondary. For what it’s worth, I expect our secondary to be a lot better in real life than they are in the game. That is, they had better be.”

Videogame secondaries are usually subject to much abuse. How else can one throw for 450 yards per game on average?

And I was right. Cal’s secondary finished 3rd in the country in interceptions with 24, and led the nation in passes defended and broken up. The Bears also touted the 6th best pass defense rating in the nation, and 4th in passing completion percentage. Simply put, Cal was right up there with USC in terms of the best secondaries in the conference.
"…Our D-Line will be just okay. It’ll be better than last year’s (which isn’t saying much), but still expect a most of our sacks to come from one of our linebackers…*cough Follett…"

Lee Corso wouldsays, “Not so fast sweetheart!”


While Follett would indeed lead the team in sacks with 10.5, Cal’s defensive line was much improved this year, despite having one less lineman in the new 3-4. Tyson Alualu, Cal’s most consistent defensive lineman this year had 6 sacks, and Cameron Jordan notched 4 himself.

Special Teams

“…Jordan Kay still has no leg power or accuracy for any field goals longer than 35 yards. And Bryan Anger is as much a beast in the game as he is in real life. We’ll see how accurate he can be… “

I probably should have noted that I only attempt a field goal once every 4 seasons in NCAA 09, so it wasn’t fair to attribute a videogame kicker’s crappiness for my own inability to time kicking on a joystick.

With that said, none of our kickers really demonstrated any real leg, although our point after attempts were nearly flawless.

Oh and Bryan Anger’s 76 yard punt in the Big Game says “hello.”

“…So what does it all mean? …Again, not much. You don’t have to log in hours to the game to know that Cal is going to be productive, not prolific on offense. Expect the ball to spread around more, and a bigger emphasis on the running game. Our defense will be more or less of the same thing, just with the linebackers being involved in nearly every play on defense. And special teams won’t be much of an issue if Tedford decides to man up and decide to never punt. Again. Kidding, not everyone can have a 95% conversion rating on 4th downs.”

All in all, EA seems to have overestimated the offense while still exhibiting a strong grasp of what their offensive tendencies would be (balance with a stronger emphasis on the running game than previous seasons). At the same time, it underestimated the defense a bit, although it did recognize that the linebackers were going to vital to this team’s success.

I can’t wait to get my hands on NCAA 09. Unless they decide to put Mark Sanchez on the cover.