I'm going to break my keyboard and will have a post up in the next day or so after it's replaced.
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I'm going to break my keyboard and will have a post up in the next day or so after it's replaced.
Read the rest of the post and comments here >>
(If the Bears lose, I'm Van Damme palming somebody.)
The Bears are fresh off a rejuvenating win over Utah and head to LA to face a reeling UCLA squad. The Bruins are facing suspensions, constant coaching change speculation, and generally bad play on both sides of the ball.
If the Bears lose this week, it will be either be the result of an utter and complete failure by the coaching staff to prepare the team for the Bruins' best shot or because of a completely lackadaisical effort by the team.
However, the Bears should not lose this game. Could they? Yes, it's feasible as they've notoriously struggled on the road in recent years. But, let me repeat myself, they should not lose this game.
To be honest, I expect UCLA to come out bring their best shot. While the Bruins have been up and down for the past several years, they've done a decent job in showing up after larger losses.
However, something tells me the Bears aren't taking their baby brethren too lightly either, and will be ready to bring the goods.
Or at least, I'm hoping.
Here are the keys to the game.
Disrupt the Option
With UCLA facing a diminished wide receiver corps due to their suspended wide receivers, you can sure as heck bet that they plan on throwing the kitchen sink at the Bears in the running attack. The Bruins were always a run-first pistol offense anyway, so you know their focus on executing this week is already going to be at an all time high.
The Bears have defended well against the rush, but some of their most notorious defensive failures have come against option offenses.
I'm thinking the Bears take their chances with the secondary, and dedicate more players on disrupting the option. Crashes, slants, stunts, blitzes can all mess up the assignments for linemen and blockers, forcing the hesitation to reside on the offensive side of the ball. Gap integrity goes without saying, but the Bears need to focus on making UCLA quarterback Kevin Prince tentative and hesitant in his decisions, thereby decreasing the likelihood that he begins attacking the edges on QB keepers.
If the Bears shut down the run, they win the day on defense. Kevin Prince is not going to beat you through the air. If he does, I will eat a rattlesnake Van Damme style.
Go Up Big Early On
The game plan for the Bears should be a bit different from last week's affair against Utah. In that game, the Bears expected a defensive battle, and had to play it a bit more conservative in the early going. Fortunately, the Bears got some great field position due to some turnovers and defensive stops, and capitalized to gain an early lead.
On Saturday however, the Bears need to come out with all guns firing and ready to punch the Bruins in the mouth.
Like I wrote earlier, I expect the Bruins to be fired up for this one and ready to shake off the negativity surrounding their program. You let the Bruins hang around in the game, and they're only going to get more confident, and bad things happen to the Bears in the Rose Bowl when the Bruins play a chip on their shoulder.
Knocking the Bruins back with a turnover or a long drive can be huge in taking the winds out of their sails. If the Bruins find themselves in another early hole, and down big again for the second straight week, the more impossible it is to rally any unit on the field. Even for a charmer like Slick Rick.
Follow the Formula
Offensively, there is absolutely no reason the Bears can't move the ball against the Bruins. Check out these defensive stats for the Bruins:
- 11th in the conference in total defense (436.1 ypg)
- 11th in the conference in scoring defense (34.4 ppg)
- 12th in the conference in rushing defense (191.86 ypg)
- 7th in the conference in passing defense (244.3 ypg)
- 12th in the conference in opponent 3rd down conversions (55.96%)
- 12th in the conference in opponent red zone conversions (93.55%)
Those are truly awful numbers. I'm not going to even bother breaking down an offensive strategy here.
Look, UCLA has some talented players on defense. There's no real reason they should be playing this poorly. Things don't look any better with their best defensive player FS Tony Dye out with injury and their best pass rusher DT Cassius Marsh suspended.
Just don't turn the ball over. Seriously. As long as the Bears hold on to the football and Maynard reads his defense (at the very least knowing when the Bruins are disguising man and zone coverage), they should be able to move the ball and score.
If anything close to the focused offensive unit that showed up against the Utes shows up in Pasadena on Saturday, the Bears score, and they score plenty enough to win.
Prediction
I swear to Jeebus, if Cal loses to UCLA, I...I don't even know what else to say. I'm even out of Van Damme pictures.
I fully expect the Bears to come out focused and ready to compete. If the defense play fast and smart against UCLA's rushing attack and the Bears avoid turnovers on offense, they should win. Should.
Cal 31 UCLA 17
Oh, and nevermind, I found anther Van Damme pic.
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These highlights come to you courtesy TouchedtheAxein82. Usual solid work.
I'll have the writeup for the game sometime this evening or tomorrow, but just know this Golden Bear fan was encouraged by a lot of things yesterday.
Go Bears.
[Edit: Here is Cal Athletics' highlight reel of the game with Starky's commentary. What a bonanza!"]
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(Robert Woods - This MoFo can fly.)
I've been doing this whole blogging thing for a couple years now, and I must say, there's no "Keys to the Game" feature I hate writing more than the USC one.
Why? Because every year in breaking down and previewing the Trojans, I inevitably come to the conclusion that beating the Trojans is very much possible. And nearly every year I walk away from their annual matchup disgusted and empty.
Case in point, excluding a cop-out prediction in 2008, I've predicted a Cal win every year. Sweet Jeebus that's just masochistic.
Regardless of my emotions on the matter, the Bears have a prime opportunity to show that this team is different from years past, and more importantly different from the team that was drubbed 45-14 at the Coliseum last year. The Bears have never started conference play 0-3, but may fall to just that dubious record in a tough matchup against the Trojans.
While USC isn't anywhere close to the dominant team they had been in years past, they're still arguably the most talented team in the conference, and it's no secret that the they've had the Bears' number since 2003. That's nearly ten years.
Fans may not be too optimistic of the Bears chances after Cal has exhibited inconsistent play and youth on both sides of the ball during their 3-2 start.
But fear not, Cal fans. There's hope. Here I go again.
Double Down
Let me start by saying that USC receiver Robert Woods is one of the best collegiate wide receivers I've seen in a long time. And we've seen some good ones.
He's abused every secondary he's faced, and is putting up All-World numbers.
It'd be easy to say, just double cover Woods and pray. Triple cover him if you need to.
But here's the problem with double teaming Robert Woods. USC knows opposing defenses will try to double Woods, with a corner sticking to Woods and the safety helping up top. Knowing this, they often overload that side of the field, or find a way to get their slot receiver open on wheel routes or the spaces where the safety would normally be.
The Trojans also have a legit threat on the other side in true frosh Marqise Lee who is begging for one-on-one matchups on the outside. USC also likes to bring their fullbacks and runningbacks in wheel routes to try and get a mismatch with a linebacker, knowing that the extra defenders in the secondary are hawking Woods.
Mismatches galore.
Still, Woods is as good of a wide receiver as I've seen for the Trojans, and at the end of the day, you can't just commit one defender to guarding Woods. He'll drink feast on opposing secondaries. Throw in the best cover OLBs and trust them against the tight ends and backs, and commit your cornerbacks and a safety to Woods and Lee. And pray.
Keep Barkley in the Pocket
Last year the Bears were abused when they showed an inability to keep USC QB Matt Barkley in the pocket. Barkley is the most dangerous when he's rolling out of the pocket, and the Trojans design a lot of these roll outs with Barkley taking his pick of a WR running a dig route across the field or a runningback or tight end that has been released on the side that Barkley rolls out on.
The Bears need to continue to work at incorporating a few more contain packages and some delayed blitzes to create pressure after Barkley has made his decision about getting out in space. Blitzing and leaving yourself one or two less defenders in coverage isn't always the answer. But just make sure Barkley doesn't get outside.
Pass Protect to Beat the Cover 2
Here's what I wrote last year about USC's Cover 2 Defense:
"The Cover 2 typically allows for the cornerbacks to play press coverage for the first five to ten yards which allows for the two safeties (the cover 2 so to speak) enough time to cover the back halves of their field. Meanwhile, the outside linebackers cover the flats while the middle linebackers are responsible for the middle zones.
The Cover 2 can be beaten when vertical routes are run to stretch the coverage, causing indecision among the safeties. Similarly, zones can be “flooded” when multiple routes are run in hopes of pressuring the backers, typically the middle linebackers."
The Bears were incapable of executing such a strategy last year because of the inconsistency in their pass protection, which really negated any type of passing game. The Trojans were content to stack the box and pressure Kevin Riley all day, and you can bet that they will likely do the same. In fact, USC Coach Lane Kiffen has already state that they have gameplanned on containing Zach Maynard and doing all they can do minimize his much overstated ability to run, and to pressure him in the pocket.
Cal's pass protection has been better this year, but they will have their hands full with a USC d-line that doesn't have the stats to back up their talent. Expect to see Isi Sofele in a lot of passing downs as he's the Bears' best blocking runningback. Most importantly, Maynard has to avoid the same type of jitters and happy feet he had last week at Oregon.
Outlook
I'm not going to do it. As much as I want to, I'm not going to predict another Cal win. And trust me, though I don't think the Bears should win, I absolutely think they can. The Bears defense has typically played USC well at home, and Cal has a few more flashes on offense this year to keep up.
But I'm not going to jinx it.
Prediction
Cal 24 USC 28
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Beavers and Wildcats: "PILLOW FIGHT!"
Oregon State 37 Arizona 27
Lowdown: In a Desperation Bowl Part Deux (from ESPN’s Ted Miller), the Beavers held off the the Wildcats to notch their first win of the season. They used a big first half in which they took a 27-6 lead, before Nick Foles and company made it a game as only their passing attacks knows how to do. A critical goal line stop kept the Beavers from going 0-5 on the season. Both teams now have a "win," and are a combined 2-9 on the season.
Up Next:
Despite Arizona’s dangerous passing attack, they’re looking like one of the worst teams in the conference this season. They’ve lost five straight and their lone win this year is over Northern Arizona. It’d take a miracle for them to be bowl eligible at this point, though wins over upcoming UCLA and Washington would be a starter. But first off, they have to be beat BYE this upcoming weekend, and that’s no lock either.
Oh and for the record, this is the one year Cal doesn’t face the Wildcats, and their win over lowly Colorado is a non-conference win. Greeeeaaat.
As for Oregon State, this officially marks their second half revival. I’m only half joking here. Anyone else see them possibly winning their next three against BYU, WSU, Utah, playing Stanford close, and then rolling the Bears at ATT? Anyone? *Looks for hands.*
Arizona State 35 Utah 14
Lowdown: The Sun Devils kept it close with the Utes, before capitalizing on (to the Subway five dollar footlong tune) “five, five, five Utah turnooooovers, many many many...”
Utah struggled without starting QB Jordan Wynn and lost a critical third quarter (Cal fans know the pain of 3rd quarters all too well) and let the game slip away from them. At one point, I believe the Utes had 3 turnovers in 7 plays. Egads!
Up Next: Will somebody from the Pac-12 South please stand up? We all knew that the Pac-12 North was going to be markedly better than the South division heading into the season, but I didn’t think it would be this bad. ASU and USC are the only teams with winning records in the South, and with a win over both USC and Utah, the Sun Devils are basically shoe-ins for the conference title game this season. While the Sun Devils aren’t quite an elite team, they’re more than quality enough of a squad to be heads and shoulders above the rest. Just picture ASU Brock Osweiller towering over Matt Barkley and you get the idea.
If the Sun Devils get knock off Oregon next week, they’ll prove to everyone that they’re not just the best team in the South, they may be one of the best in the conference. But I actually wouldn’t bet on it.
As for Utah, even in down year, they’ve affirmed the difficulties of playing in an AQ conference and how challenging it is to go through the grind of playing competitive teams week in and week out. Utah fans who thought they’d come in and walk into a division title are likely seeing the error of their ways. The Utes head East to face Pittsburgh and travel to Cal the week after.
UCLA 28 Washington 25
Lowdown: Both teams really needed a win. UCLA to salvage their season and WSU to declare that they had fully arrived out of the Pac-12 basement. In the end, UCLA ended up making more plays when it counted, and showed signs of life that they are still planning on making it a season. The Bruins still likely lost their starting QB Richard Brehaut for the year to a broken left leg (a Bruin QB injured? Get out!) and rode the arm of Kevin Prince (straight face) to victory. WSU’s Marshall Lobbestael still played well enough, but threw a critical interception on WSU’s final drive.
Up Next: The Bruins have a chance to tout a winning record for the first time this season, as they face hapless Arizona in two weeks. Then comes a critical matchup against the Bears in the Rose Bowl the week after. Suddenly, bowl eligibility looks like a real possibility again.
The Cougars have to gather themselves as they host Stanford this weekend. As improved as they are, they don’t have much of a chance here and can only hope to stay healthy enough to get the much needed win over Oregon State the week after. Despite WSU’s impressive start to the season, they’re going to hover around the .500 mark all season and will need to kick it p a notch if they’re going to fight for bowl eligibility as their second half of the season is pretty darned tough.
Stanford 48 Colorado 7
Lowdown: The Cardinal unsurprisingly rolled poor, poor Colorado, as CU Coach Jon Embree can only shake his head. The Buffaloes suspended players from their already weak secondary, and Andrew Luck and Tight End U relentlessly dismantled the Buffaloes. In even worse news for CU, they lost their best playmaker in WR Paul Richardson to a few weeks to injury. Poor, poor Colorado.
Up Next: As I’ve been saying, the Cardinal will likely be 7-0 when they face USC at the end of this month, and quite realistically 9-0 when they face the Ducks next month. The conference is just that weak right now, and Stanford has benefited from a soft early schedule and consistency in every phase of the game. Those hoping for David Shaw’s early downfall have to be griping about Stanford’s weak non-conference schedule, missing both Utah and ASU this year, and oh, Andrew Luck.
As for Colorado, thanks for playing and we’ll see you next year. Seriously. I don’t see a possible win on their schedule until Nov. 12 at the earliest when they face Arizona. It wold take a miraculous run for bowl eligibility, and most signs are pointing to a possible two or three win season for the Buffaloes. Welcome to the Pac-12.
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(Getty Images)
It’s been a few days now, and as I watch Oklahoma beat down Texas in the Red River shootout, I feel like I’m in a better place of mind to wrap up my thoughts on Oregon.
It amazes me that there are so many complaints (from myself included) about a game that the Bears were expected to get stomped in. Having such a solid first half will do that to you.
Let’s break those down, but also look at what I thought were some positives from the game.
Maynard Struggles
One of biggest reasons for Cal’s deficiencies on offense on Thursday night falls on Zach Maynard’s struggles at QB. Maynard was 20 for 41 for 218 yards and a touchdown in what was the junior QB’s worst performance of the season. Maynard struggled with his footwork and mechanics, and found himself throwing inaccurate balls all over Autzen Stadium, but usually not within the immediate vicinity of his intended receiver.
It was a bit of a perplexing performance in that Maynard actually had decent pass protection, but his happy feet led to him occasionally escaping the pocket before necessary, and often throwing himself off balance with his passes. I’ve noticed a troubling trend all season of how poor Maynard’s footwork gets when he senses pressure, not only throwing off his backfoot but even having both feet leave the ground on some occasions. I’ve stated that despite Maynard’s inaccuracy issues, he still completed many straightforward throws such as passes in the flat. On Thursday though, we saw even those passes sail.
Maynard is also still developing his field vision and hasn’t completely shaken his tendency to lock onto his primary receiver. Maynard’s missed some receivers underneath again which led to some stalled drives.
Maynard isn’t ever going to be the most accurate quarterback. His body of work demonstrates that pretty clearly. I still maintain though, that he has “enough” gamer in him though to do some nice things at the collegiate level. When Maynard has an off night however, his inability to create plays leaves him and the offense pretty empty.
Bridgford Enters...and QB Controversy?
After getting knocked out in the game partway through the fourth quarter, sophomore Allan Bridgford entered the game and went 8-19 for 103 yards. I liked that the coaches pretty much had him pass nearly every down, though they had little other choice.
All in all, I don’t think Bridgford did enough yet to suggest that he’s immediately ready to supplant Maynard as the starter, but there’s a lot to like there. He seems to be inherently more accurate, but you can tell the game hasn’t completely slowed down for him just yet. On one instance, I observed Bridgford throwing into triple coverage (which he actually completed thanks to Allen), then double coverage, and double coverage again. There were a few near picks in there as well.
Mechanically, Bridgford appears to be much more sound with his footwork, though he isn’t nearly as much of a running threat as Maynard. He does have a bit of a windup, and has a tendency to sidearm the ball a little on some of those deeper throws. He shows some nice zip and arm strength, and some nice touch on deep balls though.
A lot of fans are probably already crying out for Bridgford, and you could make the case. I do think however, that you have to let Maynard take his lumps and grow up a bit as a passer. It’s a bit too early to be calling for a short leash on Maynard, especially given that it’s obvious that Bridgford is still a bit green. If Maynard continues a string of poor performances after USC however, then we’ve got a real discussion.
Sofele Shines
Next to Keenan Allen (which we’ll get to), the biggest star on offense was easily Isi Sofele. Sofele had his best performance of the season, rushing for a career high 120 yards on 12 carries for a really nice 9.9 ypc average. The commentators seemed to take a real shine to Sofele, and for good reason, Sofele showed great vision and wiggle in getting to open space. While he still lacks to the speed to consistently take it the house (it’s a bit unfairly worth noting that Best or Vereen would have likely sprung one of his runs for a TD), I really liked his ability to cut it open for large gains.
Keep in mind that Oregon’s run defense is flat out mediocre, but it’s encouraging to note that Sofele has been getting better with each game, despite the increase in opposing teams’ quality. Sofele is really starting to own his role as the starter.
Keenan Allen...Best WR in the nation?
Not sure about that just yet, as Robert Woods probably has something to say about that, but Allen is flat out savage. Allen again topped the century mark, catching 9 balls for 170 yards and the Bears’ only touchdown.
Allen has 667 yards this season and is on track to possibly top the 1500 yard mark. Loco.
A lot of it has to do with Allen being targeted quite a bit this season, but if this guy has a shot to come down with it, chances are he will. Keep going to Allen.
Offensive Line Slowly Improving
I think it’s been a bit understated the past few weeks, but I’m starting to like what I’m seeing with the offensive line. By and large, they’re getting decent push on the ball and are protecting Maynard pretty well. They’ve also cut down on the number of penalties, when just a few weeks ago it seemed like they were responsible for nearly half of Cal’s flags.
There are still mistakes here and there, and on a few occasions I saw their most reliable o-lineman Mitchell Schwartz lose his footing and let his defender right through.
Still, I’m quietly encouraged by what I’m seeing and am more eager than anything to see how they hold up next week against USC. That will be a much better test for where Michalczik is with this team at mid season.
Defense Can’t Keep Up
In the first half, the Bears’ biggest deficiency on defense was their inability to contain the edges. It was what most of us feared with starting freshmen at both outside linebacker positions, but the Ducks really exploited LaMichael James’ speed in getting to the outside. Cal’s safeties also made matters worse by taking some pretty bad angles in assisting with the contain.
Fortunately for the Bears, they excelled in nearly every other aspect on defense in the first half. I was most impressed with Cal’s defensive line who could visibly be seen blowing up Oregon’s offensive line on any play not involving LaMichael James ripping up huge yardage on the outside.
While Aaron Tipoti excelled at nose tackle, defensive end Ernest Owusu had his best game of his career, blowing up the line, swatting down passes, and recording seven tackles, including two for a loss and a sack. It’s the type of production that Bears hopeful had been hoping Owusu could do on a consistent basis.
With Cal’s defense disrupting Oregon’s o-line, the Bears blanked Oregon’s offense in the second quarter, holding the Ducks to just 14 first half points.
The second half was a whole other story however.
With Cal’s offense unable to sustain any drives, the Bears’ were worn down physically and could not duplicate the same level of disruption, and with that the wheels really just fell off. Oregon adjusted their game plan at halftime, and decided to attack the interior of the line more, with Cal’s front seven unable to push the Ducks back.
QB Darron Thomas also took advantage of his increased time in the pocket and picked apart Cal’s secondary who inexplicably continued to play man coverage. Cal’s secondary had the advantage in speed over every Oregon wide receiver except one, DeAnthony “Black Mamba” Thomas who abused Cal’s secondary all night. To be honest, I didn’t think the coverage was all that bad, the Black Mamba was just that good in his route running.
Holding?
I very rarely find myself b*tching about uncalled flags, but the refs’ inability to call holding plays on the Bears was inexplicable and infuriating. I understand that if the blocker has his hands on the inside of the defender’s jersey that it’s a no call, but there were some blatant holds Thursday night on some of those Oregon rushes on the outside.
I get a sense that in the same way that Michael Jordan got the benefit of the doubt and got away with some plays, the Ducks probably get away with a lot of holds and know just when to release their blocks in order to not get caught.
Again, those were some blatant holds however.
Secondary Struggles
I like Stefan McClure. A lot. I think he’s going to be a hell of a corner for the Bears. But he got picked on abused quite a bit on Thursday, and things are only going to get tougher with Marc Anthony out with a separated shoulder.
I thought in the secondary as a whole, each player took turns making mistakes and each had one head shaking mistake.
Excellent interception by DJ Campbell though, who read Thomas’ eyes the entire way and made a nice athletic grab for his first pick of the season.
Special Teams-All Giorgio
Giorgio Tavecchio continues to back me up in my theory that the senior kicker would have a breakout year. Tavecchio was spectacular on Thursday night, nailing three of four field goals including a career long 54 yarder.
His lone block came on broken protection in which the Ducks defender made a pretty nice dive to just get enough on Tavecchio’s kick.
Which brings me to this point: field goal protection has been unacceptably bad this year. No duh, right? But, it’s absolutely atrocious that Cal has had four kicks blocked this year in three different games. I’ve already spoken enough about it, so I won’t go into too much here, but just say, “yuck.”
Looking Forward
The Bears will look at some game tape and try just to get better. Things don’t get much easier, as they host USC in another Thursday night ESPN game.
The games are two games into their toughest stretch of the year, and are so far 0-2. If it means anything, the next two are very much winnable, but things don’t look rosy unless they can find some answers on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, the Bears need to execute better in the red zone, and Maynard has to learn to settle down and set his feet with his throws.
Defensively, Cal has to grow up quick on the outside and wrap up better, as the number of missed tackles and missed assignments are hurting the Bears.
There’s plenty of promise, as the Bears are answering the call in some areas and you really can see flashes of a good team in there. But as the case has been for many previous years, it’ll be about putting it all together.
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[Note: I will try to have more detailed thoughts some time this weekend, but I wanted to get my overall feelings out there while they were still somewhat fresh.]
Despite taking a 15-14 lead into halftime, the Bears were run out of Autzen Stadium in the second half and fell to the Ducks by a score of 43-15.
The first half likely came as a shock to many, but the Bears were doing so many good things on both sides of the ball. Other than their failure to contain the edges which led to some huge runs by LaMichael James, the Bears controlled the line of scrimmage and forced Darron Thomas to be a non-factor early on. Offensively, the offensive line dominated and opened up a productive running game, though the passing offense failed to find a rhythm, mainly because of Zach Maynard's struggles with accuracy. It was the starting QB's worst performance of the season.
The second half however was all Oregon. I've read a few quotes from some smart football minds that state that games are won or lost in the third quarter. That was most certainly the case here as the Ducks rolled 22 unanswered points and kept Cal's offense off the field, forcing Cal's defense to simply run out of gas.
So while the Bears were unequivocally routed last night, they made it a game for the first half. I'm not one for moral victories, but I will say that it's much different when you let a game get away from you in the second half after keeping it close, rather than being thrown through the meat grinder through the getgo.
Cal showed flashes of promise, but also showed how behind they are in key areas. The Bears' defense is still very young and green in key spots, and the secondary will struggle all year. Cal's offense needs to find better consistency in the passing game and more urgently in the red zone.
Finally, while yesterday's loss was tough, let's not lose sight of our initial expectations.
My perspective of this team doesn't change at all after this loss, and it probably won't after next week's game against USC. We knew this was going to be a young and inconsistent squad and we knew they were going to take their lumps this year. Bowl eligibility was going to have to be earned, and there was going to be some major growing pains. But this season was always about finding answers and trying to get better. I believe it's most disappointing when you see a particular aspect of the Bears take a step back.
Last night's game showed that Cal has promise, but until they mature in certain key areas, will simply be a mediocre but competitive team this year. Am I content with "settling" for just that? No, but I'd rather be real about the situation than setting myself up with unrealistic expectations and emotionally throwing myself off a cliff because the team lets a game against the 9th ranked team get away from them in the second half.
More to come this weekend.
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Follow me on Twitter as I keep up with the Cal Oregon game.
We'll see how long it lasts before either excitement or depression hits me. Either way, you can keep up with it here.
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LMJ will eat your soul.
There are a few games each year that don't really require much of a writeup. These instances are usually reserved for opposing teams who pretty much bring the same dish to the table year in and year out, with little mystery to try and crack.
Oregon is one of those teams. Their dynamic offense is fairly straight forward, but incredibly difficult to defend. It takes incredible focus and discipline in all assignments to slow Oregon down, and it requires consistent, chain-moving production from the offense to keep Oregon's offense off the field. And then there's Oregon's special teams. Egad!
Still, let's go over the basics and throw out a few things that fans should keep in mind as they watch what could be the another "Autzen Atrocity." (copyright BWF).
Match Speed On Defense
Almost everyone knows just how special Oregon’s offense and all the things they do well. Their scheme is set up to spread out opposing defenses for large enough lanes for their speedy playmakers to get into space. They’re also masters at the zone read, forcing defensive fronts to account for gap responsibility with interior rushing lanes as well as containment on the edges.
What Cal succeeded with last year was first setting up the right personnel to counter Oregon’s spread attack. Instead of Cal’s typical 3-4 front, the Bears typically kept five defensive backs on the field, and generally had eight of their fastest players backing up their three-man defensive line front.
The defensive line is critical in keeping Oregon’s offensive line from moving around too much to create running lanes. This is one of the main reasons that Oregon have struggled the most against teams with mammoth defensive lines like Auburn and LSU. Once the defensive line stays puts and holds Oregon’s offensive line at the point of attack, Chip Kelly’s spread scheme begins to sputter.
The Bears also played a lot of man-man defense last year, which helped eliminate some of the danger in the zone read. This also involved a spy on Ducks QB Darren Thomas (FS Chris Conte last year) who was phenomenal in neutralizing Thomas from being a legitimate running threat.
Now, some are hoping that the Bears will repeat last year's performance in which Cal held Oregon to just 13 points, and just one offensive touchdown.
Let me just say this: That ain't happening again.
Let's just be clear about how special last year's defensive performance was. It was one of the single greatest defensive performances I've seen from a Cal squad ever. Each and every defensive player played out of their bloody minds that game, and it showed.
Quite frankly, while Cal's defensive line has been solid, they've been unable to match last year's ability to disrupt opposing offensive lines and that's going to show in this upcoming game. Moreover, Cal's safeties have a hard test if they're going to match the same level of focus and production that Sean Cattouse and Chris Conte had last year.
The Bears will benefit by adding safety Michael Coley and Stefan McClure to the five DB front, along with Josh Hill. However, both Coley and McClure are still freshmen, and it'll be the first time seeing the level of speed at which Oregon operates. Beware!
Move the Chains
Some are making more of Oregon's defensive deficiencies than quite warranted. The Ducks are giving up a huge chunk of yards each game (389 ypg, 77th nation), but mainly because they're usually up by so much early in the game and teams are going to the air to play in catchup mode. The defense isn't as good last year's squad however.
They've also been a bit weak in the interior of the defensive line, having lost two starters from last year's squad. It's hurt the Ducks' rushing defense and Oregon is giving up 181.25 yards per game on the ground. The Bears are going to have to be able to move the ball on the ground to move the chains and give themselves a shot in this game. Cal doesn't need huge plays for large gains. They're going to need longer, chain-moving drives to keep the Ducks' offense off the field.
More clearly, the Bears are not going to win in a shootout with the Ducks. The Ducks have too many weapons on offense, and the Bears don't have as many answers at every position on the offensive side of the ball. The longer the Bears can keep the Ducks off the field, the more the defense has enough rest to stay sharp with the Ducks' offense, and the better chance the Bears have to keep themselves in it.
Avoid Large Returns
Don't kick to LaMichael James. Seriously. Just don't do it. It's not worth whatever gain you think you might gain from doing so.
Last year, the Bears were burned when they outkicked their coverage and had Oregon DB Cliff Harris return a punt for the deciding touchdown in the game.
LaMichael James has been an even greater revelation at the position, averaging 22.8 yards per return and a touchdown. That's Desean-esque. Would you punt to Desean? Didn't think so.
Prediction
The Ducks are favored by 24 points. There's a side of me that certainly feels like this is reasonable. In fact, it's quite possible the Bears make that number look paltry and end up face planting in even more spectacular fashion. Let's face it, the situation is ripe for such a situation. They have far more questions on defense than they did last year, even if Cal's offense has been better.
Yet, I also think it's not too far-fetched to see the Bears make this a matchup. If Cal's secondary can be disciplined and shed blocks against Oregon's offense, and if the Bears' o-line can control the point of attack and open up a legitimate rushing attack, then I absolutely think the Bears could shock the world.
I just see some more fight in this team than in years past. More than anything, I think that even if the Bears go down, they go down swinging. I also have a sinking feeling that there isn't a single player in the locker room who isn't going into this with the attitude that they put Cal back on the map on Thursday.
Who knows, make it competitive and we'll see.
Oregon 42
Cal 27
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I missed writing last week’s Round Up as I took a bit of a bye week from blogging, but did follow most of the action over the past week. Here’s the breakdown.
USC 48 Arizona 41
Lowdown: The Trojans survived a shootout with the Wildcats. Although USC was never truly in danger of losing the game, Arizona always found a way to fight back with a touchdown to put themselves back into a puncher’s chance. The offensive numbers in this game were absurd, with Nick Foles and Matt Barkley going for a combined 893 yards and 8 touchdowns through the air. Both secondaries didn’t seem to be able to defend a lick either as both fanbases are getting increasingly frustrated with their respective defenses.
Up Next: The Wildcats have survived their brutal opening stretch, if you can call a 1-4 start “surviving.” Arizona has faced a Top 10 team three weeks straight, and have lost by a total of 178-96 points. They’ve got a much easier test coming up this week against hapless Oregon State. While it should be easier, the game is an absolute must win for Arizona if they want to give themselves any shot at sparking a dream run at bowl eligibility this season.
The Trojans are off this week before their Thursday night matchup against your Golden Bears. A week off before preparing for their annual shellacking of their Nor-Cal rivals may be just what the doctor ordered for the Kiffen kin.
Washington St. 31 Colorado 27
Lowdown: You’ve gotta be frustrated if you’re a Colorado fan. You knew your team had some tough games on the road this season, but you had to figure that you could at least win two of three very winnable home games against CSU, Cal and Wazzu. And the Buffaloes looked like they were going to do just that, sporting a nice 10 point lead with just three minutes to play. But Wazzu rode the arm of backup QB Marshall Lobbestael to a comeback win with two late touchdowns.
Up Next:
Washington State is alive with hope again sporting their shiny 3-1 start. It is worth noting however, that WSU’s opening schedule has been pretty darn soft, and get another manageable matchup against UCLA this week, although it is their third straight road game. While Washington State is far from a contender this year, they’re definitely going to be competitive in most games, and a win over UCLA should put them on a safe road to bowl elgibility.
Colorado on the other hand has to be beside itself with its 1-4 start, which will likely move to 1-5 after their upcoming road trip to the Farm to face Stanford. You can actually easily see that changing to 1-9 with games against Washington, Oregon, ASU, and USC following immediately afterwards. While it may be too early to say, I’d be shocked to see Colorado finishing with more than 3 wins this season.
Washington 31 Utah 17
Lowdown: In one of the more surprising outcomes in the conference, Washington capitalized on Utah’s turnovers to roll the Utes in the second half. While Washington’s defense is still mediocre at best, they’ve shown signs that they may be rounding the corner. Keith Price and Chris Polk continue to shine for the Huskies. Meanwhile, Utah shook their head in disbelief after watching their starting quarterback Jordan Wynn leave the game with a sagging shoulder.
Up Next: The Huskies are rocking their best start in years at 4-1, and have a chance to be that much closer to bowl eligibility with an upcoming game over Colorado. The Huskies are making a strong case for being the third best team in the Pac-12 North, and possibly the fourth or fifth best team in the conference.
As for Utah, you have to think that a 2-2 start is on the lower end of preseason expectations for the Utes. The Utes are finding the Pac-12 much tougher waters than the Mountain West. Although the upcoming matchup against Pac-12 ASU has lost some of its luster, it’s still the premier matchup in the division this season with USC ineligible for the Pac-12 title. Win, and Utah is right back into the thick of things to win the Pac-12. Lose, and I’d say Utah finishes at best 8-4 this season. At best.
Oregon St. 20 Arizona St. 35
Lowdown: The Beavers had a tough test in front of them against ASU and actually took a 13-0 lead to start the first quarter. A stunned Arizona State squad redbounded however, giving up just 7 points the rest of the way while scoring 5 touchdowns. It was a sloppy game however, with both teams combining for 9 turnovers.
Up Next: Things are dreary in Corvallis, with the Beavers off to their first 0-4 start in years. I still think the Beavers respond as the season wears on, especially once their quarterback (whoever it is) begins to settle down and the team sees key returns from injury. With that said, the Beavers are playing like the worst team in the conference right now. It’s not WSU 2008-2010 seasons bad, but it’s pretty bad right now. OSU faces Arizona next in what is a must win game for both teams looking to get out of the divisional basement.
Arizona State is flying high after rebounding from their loss to Illinois, and is the hands down favorite to win the South. With USC ineligible and Utah stumbling, the Sun Devils can begin painting their ticket to the Pac-12 championship game with a win over Utah this Saturday.
UCLA 19 Stanford 45
Lowdown: The Bruins made it a game for most of the first two quarters, but stubbed their toes once they couldn’t punch a touchdown in from Stanford’s one yard line. After that, it was all Stanford as the Cardinal put together their most complete game of the season. Most are talking about Andrew Luck’s ridiculous one hand grab (you read that right) which will make nice highlight material for Luck’s Heisman presentation. The Bruins have to be admired for putting up some fight, but still looked like a team going through the motions for the rest of the game once things got ugly.
Up Next: Suddenly a game against the Cougars doesn’t like so much of a gimmie for the Bruins. In fact, I’d have to say the WSU has to be favored here, despite UCLA playing at home. The Bruins are going to have to beat WSU and pull off an upset or two to keep fighting for bowl eligibility.
Stanford continues to yawn through their comfortable opening slate of games, and things will get incrementally harder before their Oct 29th showdown against USC. The ‘Furd face Colorado this week, play at WSU the week after, and then host Washington. They should be favored in all three, and again, I’d be shocked if the Cardinal weren’t 7-0 and in the Top 3 before they face USC, another team they’ll likely beat.
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